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Tuesday 8 November 2022

8:00 Kempton Racing Tips (9th November)


FIRST FOLIO has been known to lead before but stall ten isn't ideal and is drawn widest of the four horses that have been known to lead before so maybe worth laying. 

STRIKE RED 9/1 recorded its best rating in 2021 and that wasn't good enough to win this race and hasn't been at that level so far this year so maybe another one to lay. 

TOLSTOY is a 3yo who either tracks the leaders or races in midfield, it needs to improve time wise to win this race but is still capable of showing some improvement. 

APOLLO ONE can be held up or track the leaders, it would need to improve on its best course and distance rating but does have a rating from Chelmsford that would make it competitive. 

TIGER CRUSADE 15/2 has got the plum stall one draw but can find this distance too short for it so might get outpaced in the early stages and stay on but maybe too late for the win. 

DREAM COMPOSER is a course and distance winner and won last time out on turf but time wise it would need to improve a good few spots to win this race. 

ARAMIS GREY is a versatile type with its racing tactics and can lead so with the stall 2 draw I think it will either lead or at least get a good early position from which to attack nearing the finish. 

APHELIOS a 3yo who likes to track the leaders and has a good rating but its just outside my top four and is raised in class. 

PAPA STOUR is a possible pacesetter but its ratings for this year has been well below its 2021 best and I expect it to be an outsider. 

IVASECRET did its best rating this year over today's course and distance but being stuck out in stall 12 it will need a degree of luck to get a clear run. 

TOTAL COMMITMENT is always capable of producing a good rating but it might find itself outclassed in this class 2 race.

INTERVENTION is another that can produce a high rating but once again this class two race might prove too much for it to win. 

SUMMARY: This is a competitive looking class 2 race, I will look to lay First Folio 11/2 who isn't well drawn for a horse that likes to lead, Dream Composer needs to improve time wise to win this race so might be another one to lay if a single figure price. There are a few horses that could run well in this race but I will be siding with ARAMIS GREY 6/1 who can lead or at least track the leaders and from stall 2 it should be able to get a good early position and could even lead and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch also in its favour is that the trainer has a 17% win ratio at this course and the jockey has a 28% win ratio on the stables older horses.

Aramis Grey 13/2 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets First Folio +1pt, Red Strike +1pt

Total on the day +1pt 

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