6F Class-5 12-Runners
BELLE FOURCHE usually tracks the leaders and my 3rd top rated.
MOHARREB front running type but has been in poor form time wise since 2020.
BILL PLUMB likes to track the leaders but only 5th best on my figures.
ROGUE DE VEGA(3yo) ran on over 5 furlongs but that was a relatively slow time.
BLUE FLAME may need a longer distance to show its best form.
SERGEANT PEP (3yo) a front running type who is my 2nd top rated using a 2022 time.
MURBIH another front running type but only 6th best on my figures.
THUNDER SUN hasn't won over this distance and has been in poor form.
ASADJUMEIRAH 4th best overall but top on 2023 times only and usually races in midfield.
CAESARS PEARL(3yo) likes to track the pacemakers won in a slow time on turf.
ARAIFJAN versatile with its racing tactics and top rated using a 2022 rating.
EROSION RISK(3yo) likes to track the leaders and needs to improve time wise.
CONCLUSION: With 3 or possibly 4 front running types in this race it should be fast for its class but the 3 main front running types are in stalls 8, 10 and 12 which are not ideal, if Mohareb in stall 12 is a single figure price I would look to lay it as I would with Caesars Pearl who might have been flattered when winning a slow run race on turf on good to firm going, SERGEANT PEP 9/1 would be dangerous if gaining control of the rails and is drawn best of the natural front running types in stall 8 but if ARAIFJAN 14/1 from stall 3 can get away quickly and gain control of the rails it could return to winning ways but it is a versatile type and doesn't have to lead to win and ran well when finishing 2nd 2 runs ago and I will be backing them both with small each way wagers in this race to hopefully cover the angles.
Araifjan 14/1 4th -1pt
Sergeant Pep 9/1 5th
Lay bets: Caesar's Pearl +1pt
Total on the day -1pt
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