With 4 known front runners in this race it should be a true run race although none of them are in my top 4 ratings so it looks that they will be setting the race up for something coming from off the pace. According to the early tissue prices then Laolsman 11/4 is forecast to be the favourite but its not got any AW form and its best rating on turf would put it just outside my top 4 ratings so I will lay the win part to small stakes because it is a 3yo so could still improve, Lilkian sits in 4th top spot while Agostino occupies 3rd top spot so either or both could run well in this race and might be worth an each way interest as my 2nd top rated is Lady Dreamer another 3yo but this ones best time came on turf and if able to reproduce that rating could be dangerous in this race but I will as always and that is to stick with the proven so my money will be riding on TYGER BAY 7/2 who is a course and distance winner and is usually held up either in midfield or at the rear of the field and then stays on strongly nearing the finish, it has good trainer and jockey stats which makes me think the connections are expecting a big run from it in this race and with the make-up of this race it should have every opportunity to get back to winning ways.
Tyger Bay 7/2 Unp -1pt
Lay bet: Laolsman -2.25pts
Total -3.25pts
LINGFIELD 3.00
The early pace to this race might well be set by Big Time Maybe 5/1 who is housed in stall 1 which is ideal for it but it would need to improve time wise to win this race but if allowed an easy lead it might do enough to make the frame if others falter but might be worth laying the win part with this horse if of value to do so, looking at the early tissue prices Zing Up 4/1 is forecast to be the favourite and it does come out in 3rd top rated using a time recorded on turf but its form on the AW tracks has been poor and I would look to lay it again if of value to do so. Perfect Symphony sits in 4th top spot and races as though further would suit it better and the same applies to my 2nd top rated horse Nordic Glory. My money will be riding on STORM MELODY 6/1 who likes to track the leaders and coming out of stall 2 it should be able to slot in just behind the leader and then wait to pounce late on.
Storm Melody 6/1 7th -1pt
Lay bets: Big Time Maybe +1pt, Zing Up -6pts
Total -6pts
NEWCASTLE 8.00
There are five 3yo’s in this race and 2 known front running types in Rainbow Rain and Spartan Fighter and the latter recorded a time in 2021 that would see it winning this race but has been woefully out of form recently so I'm hoping it doesn't bounce back to form here, while the former would be my 4th top rated but this time its best rating came on turf and hasn't run over this distance on an artificial surface, Revolution is my 3rd top rated and this one also recorded its best rating on turf, I will be backing RHYTHM 5/1 who comes out in 2nd top spot on all figures but top rated over this distance on the Tapeta surface and it was produced over this course and distance plus it is dropped in class to run in this race, it is well housed in stall 10 and usually tracks the leaders in its races and then stay on the stronger nearing the finish.
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