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Thursday 12 October 2023

8:00 Newcastle Racing Tips (13th October)


I can see 3 known front running types in this field of 12 runners and I'm hoping it will be won from the front, firstly I think Mumcat 6/1 who does come out 4th best on my figures will stay on too late for the win so will be a lay if of value to do so but only the win part while the opposite applies to the 3yo Hes An Angel 3/1 who is still a maiden after 7 runs and it faded before over this distance. One For the Ladies comes out in joint 2nd top spot using a 2021 rating and has been 10lbs below that level since then, Muddy Lynn is the other joint 2nd top rated and is a front running type coming out of stall 3 which isn't ideal as those drawn high seem to have a slight advantage and my top rated horse AUTUMN FLIGHT 8/1 is drawn in stall 10 and if this one gets to the front it could win a shade cosily. 

Autumn Flight 22/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bet: Mum Cat -3pts

Total -4pts


Down to 8 runners for this five furlong dash where Dapper Man in stall 6 who is my 3rd top rated is the only known natural front running type in the race , both Crypto Quest and Woobay 2/1 race as though further would suit them better so might be worth laying for the win part, Aconcagua Mountain 11/2 is my 4th top rated and is usually held up for a late run so I doubt it will catch the leader/s in time to win the race unless something else decides to change their usual racing tactics and they go off too fast in front and fade badly nearing the finish but it could make the frame, Lady Celia is my 2nd top rated using a 2022 rating recorded on this surface but at Southwell which is similar to this course with them both being on a straight course without any bends so it could go well but its best course and distance rating is 6lb below its best. ELZAAR 4/1 is drawn in stall 8 so it should get a good tow into the race from midfield or even at the back of the filed and then stay on the stronger at the finish, it has had 13 previous races over this course and distance winning 5 of them and being placed in another 6 so an each way record of 11 from 13 which is superb and showed a return to form is imminent by finishing 2nd here last time out and has been found an ideal opportunity to get back to winning ways.

Elzaar 4/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets: Crypto Quest +1pt, Woobay +1pt

Total +1pt

Total on the day -3pts

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