3:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (11th November)

NEWCASTLE 3.15 

The early pace to this race could well be set by Magical Spirit and this one could be a slightly hidden danger if allowed an easy time at the front of the field as its best time on turf would make it my 3rd top horse in this race so might be worth an each way punt. Gweedore 6/1, Brewing 4/1 and Zip 6/1 all race as though further would suit them better so may get outpaced in the early stages and not make up the deficit in time to win this race and ones I will be looking to lay here and I could add Bielsa 7/1 to my lay list as time wise using both All-Weather and Turf ratings it needs to improve to be able to win this race. Roman Dragon is my 4th top rated so could go well and possibly make the frame if others falter, sometimes Monsieur Kodi can struggle to stay this distance but in the make-up of this race it might run ok but I somehow doubt it will be an each way price but i will be relying on GULLIVER 16/1 (EW) who has won 5 times on an artificial surface but admittedly hasn't run on this course before but a repeat of its best rating from Southwell the last time it ran on an All-Weather surface it would be winning this race a shade cosily and it worked last time it won after running on turf and then the switch back to the All-Weather surface brought it instantly back to form I'm hoping for a repeat here but at such a big price it has to be an each way punt.

Gulliver 16/1 7th -2pts 

Lay bet: Bielsa +1pt 

Total -1pt 

CHELMSFORD 7.30 

This race looks likely to be won from the front as all 4 known front running types are in my top 5 ratings so as long as they don't push each other too hard and then tire badly nearing the finish a lot of horses wont get competitive in this race, if Shalaa Asker 7/1 is a single figure price I will look to lay it as with a fast early pace it can struggle to stay the distance, Holkham Bay stall 7 is my 5th top rated, Buccacay stall 1 is my 4th top rated so could gain control on the rails which will help its cause so may be worth an each way interest if of value to back each way, Hello Me is the one that could prosper if they go off too fast as its my 3rd top rated but its best rating of this year would plummet it down my list, The Waiting Game stall 10 is my 2nd top rated and has won its last 5 races starting off on an official rating of 48 and won last time out rated 75 and is up another 3lbs here it doesn't have to lead which could be helpful seeing it s pretty bad draw but I wouldn't pt anyone off of backing it as it could still be improving but I will stick with the proven and put my faith in CUBAN BREEZE 12/1 (EW) stall 8 who can front run or be held up and it finished fast behind The Waiting Game when beaten a short head and is 2lbs better off on that run which is plenty to reverse that form and finished 3rd last time out in a very fast run race so it has a good chance to get back to winning ways here but at a double figure price it has to be given as an each way bet.

Cuban Breeze 12/1 1st +15pts

Lay bet: Shalaa Asker +1pt 

Total +16pts

Total on the day +15pts

7:00 Chelmsford Racing Tips (19th October)

CHELMSFORD 7.00 

There are 4 horses in this field of 10 that have been known to lead before and that quartet contains my top 3 ratings also half of the field are 3yo’s which isn't ideal as they can still be improving, Fast And Loose 11/1 in stall 8 is 3rd top but this is using a time recorded at Newcastle on the Tapeta surface so would need to improve for the switch of surfaces to tin this race. Sitting in 2nd top spot is the front running Musical Tribute 13/2 from stall 1 so has the advantage of the rails to help him so ought to make the frame from the front and if the top rated horse falters it could lead all the way but I have CUBAN BREEZE 7/1 who showed a return to winning ways was close when finishing 2nd last time out and is rated a few spots higher and this front running sort is drawn in stall 6 and in the make-up of this race should either be able to get to the front or at least contest the lead from the off and then should be able to stay on the stronger nearing the finish.

Cuban Breeze 7/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

CHELMSFORD 8.00 

There are 2 known front running sorts in this dash and 5 of the 11 runners are 3yo’s but this time its a 3yo that I think will win the race, Lion Ring 14/1 is my 3rd top rated and one of the front running types in this race but it is using rating recorded on this Polytrack surface but it was at Lingfield this year which is virtually a replica of this course so it should be okay running here, I've got Suanni 11/1 rated 2nd best and once again its using ratings from Lingfield but this time it back in 2022 and its best rating for this year is well below that level but it bounce back to form anytime so it could make the frame but I will be relying on UNIVERSAL GRACE 7/2 who won over this course and distance last time out and has been found a good opportunity to follow up here the jockey that day has been retained for the ride again here so I think that's a pointer to connections expecting it to go well again in this race as he has a 24% win ratio for the stable in this type of handicap. 

Universal Grace 5/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

2:15 Ayr Racing Tips (26th July)

AYR 2.15 

A 12 runner race with 3 front running types, I will look to lay Glenamoy Lad 13/2 who hasn't won since 2017 and Jessie Allan 11/1 who won last time out but in a slow run race so may have been flattered by that piece of form,looking at my figures I expect the pace will be set by Jordan Electrics and/or Rebel Redemption as they are my 4th and 3rd top rated using times they recorded this year at Hamilton and Carlisle, I had to go back to 2019 to find the best time for Paddy Power and its time when it won over this course and distance 3 runs ago this year was a slow run affair and I think age is catching up with this 8yo, my money will be riding on STRONSAY 9/1 with an each way wager at the price, who I fancied last time it ran but things didn't go to plan for it that day where the early pace was quite slow and then when the leaders kicked on it got outpaced before staying on again at the finish with there being more early paced sorts in this race it should have the good pace to aim at which it likes. 

Stronsay 9/1 10th -2pts 

Lay bets Glenamoy Lad +1pt, Jessie Allan +1pt 

Total 0pts 

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.35 

Eleven runners with 3 front running types in the field, I will look to lay Nacho 5/1 who has only produced slow times in its 4 runs over this course and distance and Bellevarde 4/1 who also has had 4 course and distance runs and not produced a time good enough to register on my figures and this one also has poor trainer/jockey stats, its not a great race and I've only got 5 runners with a rating, Katherine Place who’s best time comes from 2019, Signore Piccolo who’s best time comes from Newcastle, Qaaraat who hasn't shown much so far this year over this distance, Street Life who did its best time when winning at Newcastle but has 2 slow times form its only 2 course and distance runs, the one carrying my money has never run on this surface before but has a time from Chelmsford that would put it 9lb higher than anything else plus its the other possible pacesetter slim hoping that *DARK SIDE PRINCE 5/1 can get to the front and then prove too hard to catch and the jockey booking makes me think the stables expecting a big run here. 

*NR 

Lay bets Nacho +1pt, Bellevarde +1pt 

Total +2pts  

WINDSOR 6.25

Only 7 runners in a class 4 affair and to be fair I was going to leave this race alone before I checked the form of the 3yo’s in the race, I can see the 3yo Enduring setting the pace to the race but this one has only slow times on turf from its 5 races where its not even made the frame but its best time on the AW at Chelmsford would make it my 2nd top rated so could go well here but I will be backing another 3yo in the shape of AL SAARLYAH 8/1 who recorded a time at Yarmouth in 2020 that would make it my top rated, its 3 runs this year can be ignored as its not had the ideal conditions but as long as its doesn't rain here it has been found a good opportunity to get back to winning ways. 

Al Saarlay 8/1 1st +8pts 

Total +8pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.35 

A field of 13 in a class 5 race that looks above average for its class, there's five 3yo’s amongst them and 2 known front running types, there is a few forecast to be around the 10/1 mark that I would lay if a single figure price so the betting will decide whether I have any lays or not, I've got very little between Turanga Leela (one of the possible pacesetters), Tathmeen, Spanish Angel, Al Asef and Martineo on my ratings so any could run well but I have Zamjar as my top rated but that time came from a Newcastle time back in 2019 and has only slow times here from 2 runs, my money will be riding on CUBAN BREEZE 15/2 who is the other known pace setting type and in the make-up of this race stall 11 might not be too bad and if getting to the front it ought to prove hard to catch and with its good trainer/jockey stats making me think connections are expecting a big run here.  

Cuban Breeze 8/1 8th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day +9pts