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Showing posts with label Intervention. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Intervention. Show all posts

Friday, 24 March 2023

3:30 Lingfield Racing Tips (25th March)

LINGFIELD 3.30 

A field of 7 for this class 2 dash where 4 of the runners, Arecibo, Live In The Dream, Kiwano and The Defiant, have been known to lead before, Navello and The Defiant look to be outsiders in this race and the former may need this run for fitness while the latter may be outclassed at this level another I think might get outclassed is Badri 2/1 and this one might be of value to lay in this race. Arecibo usually stays on at this distance but maybe too late to win this race, Live In The Dream has only a slow time over this distance at both here on Tapeta and on the Polytrack surface at Wolverhampton, Kiwano was allowed an easy lead in a 3 horse race when beating TONE THE BARONE 10/3 but the pace that day was relatively slow which didn't suit it and this looks an ideal race to reverse that form especially on 3lb better terms.

Tone The Barone 10/3 PU (sadly fatally injured. Condolences to connections)

Lay bet Badri +1pt

Total 0pts

LINGFIELD 5.15 

This 10 runner class 5 sprint is very tight on my figures, Hit Mac 9/1 has only won over 5 furlongs so may not stay this distance here and its figure looks to have been recorded when towed along in a fast run race so may be flattering to its actual chances here, Porfin hasn't been in the best of form lately, Politics could be the one to set the pace to this race although Repartee has also been known to lead before so it should ensure there's a good early pace to the race. Beauzon is a hold up type but may stay on too late in this race to win it but could possibly make the frame. EPIC EXPRESS 10/1 is my top rated but only by 1lb it has good trainer and jockey stats both with a win ratio of 20% but if its a little rusty and needs this run for fitness after being off for 142 days so i will also be backing EL HOMBRE 7/1 who although being a 9yo is still capable of winning at this level and the change of jockey looks promising as he has a 21% win ratio on the stables older horses.

El Hombre 7/1 1st +7pts
Epic Express 10/1 4th -1pt 

Total +6pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30 

A turnout of 13 for this class 4 sprint where 7 of the runners have been known to lead before so it might be a furious early pace and according to my figures it is most likely that the winner will come from a front running type. Shalaa Asker 8/1 has been running well but seems to struggle when raised up to this level it might run ok but I would look to lay the win part with this horse and is the only one that might be of value to lay. Algheed is my 5th top rated and likes to front run while Tolstoy is my 4th top rated but that's using a Polytrack time at Chelmsford and hasn't run over this distance on this Tapeta surface before so not sure what to expect but I will stick with the proven, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses in MUSCIKA 6/1 and ABERAMA GOLD 5/1 and both are capable of leading but they can also deploy other racing tactics which gives them more than one string to their bow while my top rated is INTERVENTION 8/1 who has been running quite well recently and if able to reproduce its Southwell rating here, which was a class 3 race but stall 13 isn't ideal for it in the make-up of this race or it might have been my sole bet if drawn better, it would win with a bit to spare so I will be backing all 3 of them to hopefully cover the angles but my stakes will be kept low because it looks a very competitive race. 

Muscika 10/1 3rd -1pt 
Intervention 16/1 7th -1pt
Aberama Gold 13/2 Unp -1pt

Total -3pts 

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.00 

A class 6 sprint where the early pace may be set by Van Gerwen who is the only known front running type in this field of 10 horses but may need this run for fitness and time wise it would need to improve a few spots (that's assuming others will run to their best time wise) Rhubarb seems better over shorter while Lion Ring 4/1 might prefer further and both will be lays if of value to do so. Jackmeister is my 3rd top rated and will be trying to stay on at the end of this race but further might suit it better, Starjik sits in 2nd top spot and usually tracks the leaders while my top rated horse *MY BOY JACK 7/2 is a hold up type who finished strongly at this level and likes a relatively fast pace to aim at so this race ought to suit it perfectly.

*NR

Lay bet +1pt 

Total +1pt 

Total on the day +4pts

Friday, 18 November 2022

2:20 Lingfield Racing Tips (19th November)

LINGFIELD 2.20 

A class 4 five furlong dash with 10 entrants and 4 that have been known to lead before but I think they will set the race up for a fast finishing type but time wise its hard to a clear picture of what might or ought to happen in this race. The Defiant 8/1 and La Roca Del Fuego 9/1 are both capable of recording fast times but neither have ever won before at this level of racing, Thegreatestshowman 10/1 is capable but in poor form lately, Bang On The Bell 9/2 and Kim Wexter 5/1 have fast times but on the Tapeta surface so might be worth laying at those prices, Dream By Day 10/1 and Alcazan 6/1 might both need a longer distance to show their best form. Amor De Mi Vida hasn't ever run on this surface before so I'm not sure what to expect but I think it will be an outsider in this race. That leaves me with Harb 5/1 in stall one who is a possible pacesetter and its best time from Chelmsford last year but being a 3yo it could still have some improvement within in it and could prove hard to catch if leading and controlling the rails so going the shortest way round but if the top weighted POP DANCER 9/2 reproduces its best time which it recorded here last year then it should stay on the stronger at the finish.

Pop Dancer 17/2 1st 8.5pts 

Lay bets The Defiant +1pt, Bang On The Bell +1pt, Kim Wexler +1pt 

Total +11.5pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.00 

Another class 4 race with 11 runners with 2 or 3 that have been known to lead before, I say 2 or 3 because Mighty Gurkha 9/1 has been known to lead but usually its when nothing else wants to set the early pace but this one prefers the Polytrack surface and might be worth laying if a single figure price. The Lamplighter 9/1 and Foxy Rascal 7/2 are my 4th joint top rated horses but the former's best came in 2021 and the latter's rating is from Newcastle so I couldn't back either of them and maybe laying them could pay dividends if they are of value to lay. Treacherous 16/1 is my 3rd top rating but that's if I go back to its best 2020 rating which doesn't inspire confidence. Abbey Heights 4/1 has a decent time which it recorded at Southwell and has only one slow time to its name over this distance on this surface at Newcastle. Cherish is my 2nd top rated and this one likes to track the leaders but it hasn't won at this level before so may be a bit outclassed, that leaves me with INTERVENTION 9/2 who is one of the potential pacesetters to this race and stall 10 might not be too much of a handicap in this race with only 2 natural front running types in the race and if getting to the front it ought to be able to hold on for the win. 

Intervention 9/2 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets Mighty Gurkha +1pt, Foxy Rascal +1pt 

Total +1pt 

Total on the day +12.5pts

Tuesday, 11 October 2022

3:50 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (12th October)

WOLVERHAMPTON 3.50 

A field of 13 runners with only Araifjan 12/1 having been known to lead before but its only when nothing else wants to take on the pace making role and could do enough from the front to make the frame and if allowed an easy lead it could prove hard to catch but with a few that like to track the leaders I doubt the early pace will be a slow one, there's seven 3yo’s in this race so there isn't a great deal of data to work with so any stakes have to be kept on the low side, I'm not sure I can find anything positive to put forward as a lay here but I will be having a few pounds on PORFIN 7/1 who is my top rated and finished 2nd last time out and has been found a decent opportunity to go one better here but the jockey is 0-11 when riding for the stable which doesn't fill me with confidence but I'm hoping a small win bet will pay dividends and the price is bit better than I expected so I back it at the price with guaranteed odds and then you win price wise wherever happens. 

Porfin 10/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

KEMPTON 7.00 

A nice looking class 3 race with 8 runners so I hope they all take part so my each way bets will have 3 places to aim at, Love De Vega 13/2 hasn't any all weather form to its name and its best speed figure over this distance on grass wouldn't be good enough to win this race so will need to improve for the switch but I believe a longer distance would be beneficial to it so maybe one to lay another could be Out From Under 9/4 another 3yo and this one also might need further to show its best and at the price has to worth taking the risk of laying it, I'm not sure that Badri 8/1 really likes this surface producing slow times at both Chelmsford and here at Kempton and looks better on Tapeta but even its best from that surface wouldn't be good enough to win this race so maybe a third one to lay, INTERVENTION 11/1 (EW) has been known to adopt the front running type and has the plum 1 stall draw so could go well from the front and its best figure produced at Chelmsford makes it my 2nd top rated and only 3lb’s below the top rated TYGER BAY 16/1 (EW) who's best rating was produced at Lingfield this year, both of them have good jockey/trainer stats and the latter comes out best on both stats, I will be backing them both to cover the angles of the front running Intervention and Tyger Bay who is usually held up for a late run and the latter will need a near perfect run to catch the pacesetter and at the prices they both have to be each way bets.

Intervention 11/1 2nd +1.75pts 
Tyger Bay 18/1 5th -2pts 

Lay bets Love De Vega +1pt, Out From Under +1pt 

Total +1.75pts 

Total on the day +0.75pts