3:10 Newcastle Racing Tips (23rd February)

NEWCASTLE 3.10 

NIGEL NOTT has a good rating from Chelmsford which would make it my 3rd top rated but doesn't seem to like this surface as much and I will look to lay it. 

*STRONG POWER has quite poor trainer/jockey stats and may be better over a longer distance so another I will look to lay.

LOOK OUT LOUIS has good trainer stats and the jockey stats are good but the jockey has only had 2 rides for the stable and another I think might need further and could be a lay.

SPOOF again has good jockey stats but there's only 4 races to work with it should be staying on at the finish but maybe too late but maybe not one to risk with a lay bet.

SECRETINTHEPARK who has good jockey stats is the only known front running type in the race and a repeat of a c/d win last year would see it hold on for the win. 

BE PROUD comes out 2nd best on my figures and has good jockey stats and could be the one for the forecast. 

SUMMARY: Four of the runners have good trainer and/or jockey stats but they cant all be

right, I'm not sure which ones I will lay if any so I will be hoping that SECRETINTHEPARK 5/1 who is the only “known” front runner in the race can lead from start to finish and hold on for the win. 

*NR

Secretinthepark 6/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Look Out Louis +1pt

Total 0pts

KEMPTON  7.00 

JUAN LES PINS hasn't shown much time wise since 2020 on this surface but has a rating from Newcastle which would make it my 3rd top rated on overall figures so could make the frame. 

BOWLING RUSSIAN has been out of form lately has had one run since taking a 3 month break and if back to form it could lead all the way.

KONDRATIEV WAVE comes out 5th best on my figures so could make the frame if others falter, has stall 1 which is a bonus for this front running type. 

DURDLE DOOR the 3rd of the 4 known front running style horses in this race although it doesn't have to lead but stall 9 isn't ideal. 

EQUITATION will be trying to stay on nearing the finish but maybe too late and may be better over further.

ENDURING the last of those known to lead but time wise this one has a good few spots to make up and might not catch the leaders in time for the win. 

TYGER BAY this ones best rating from both 2021 and 2020 would leave it a bit short of whats required to win this race and may not pick up the leaders in time. 

ET TU BRUTE hasn't shown much worthwhile and I expect it will be one of the outsiders in this race. 

SEAS OF ELZAAM hasn't been in the best of form lately and its best rating from 2020 would still leave it outside my top 5 ratings. 

SIR GREGORY won the time before last over this course and distance but that was a relatively slow run race and might get outpaced early doors in this race.

CLASHANISKA has poor trainer, 1-77 stats but has a time from 2021 which puts it in 2nd top spot on my figures and I'm not sure this course suits it 

SUMMARY: There should be a decent early pace to this race, I might look to lay Enduring who likes to set its own slower early pace which I doubt it will be allowed to do in this race, while Equitation may need further to show its best and I could well add Sir Gregory to that list, Clashanishka, Durdle Door, Juan Les Pins and Kondratiev Wave all have pieces of form and ratings that could see them make the frame here but I will be taking a punt on hopefully an outsider by having an each way punt on BOWLING RUSSIAN 16/1 (EW) who is my top rated using a Lingfield rating it produced in 2020 and its best from 2021 wasn't too far adrift of that rating and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and the each way bet for insurance in case it fades nearing the finish.

Bowling Russian 28/1 8th -2pts 

Lay bet Enduring +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt

12:25 Newcastle Racing Tips (2nd January)

NEWCASTLE 12.25 

A poor turnout in all 3 sprints today with just 5 in this race, I think both Good Earth 13/8 and Zapper Cass 15/2 would prefer a longer distance and might be worth laying while both Mokaman and SECRETINTHEPARK 4/1 like to lead and I think the latter will do best of the pair and could possibly lead all the way and will be carrying some of my money but PHOENIX STAR 2/1 is rated exactly the same on my figures but does have a 3lb claiming apprentice on board which moves it to top spot but i am not confident enough to split them so I will be backing them both.  

Secretinthepark 4/1 1st +4pts + EX £10.80

Phoenix Star 2/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet Good Earth +1pt 

Total +4pts

NEWCASTLE 12.55 

Up to 6 runners for this six furlong sprint and I expect the pace to be set by Alikido but hasn't any form in England on the AW tracks but would need to improve time wise to win this race but never say never if its allowed an easy lead, I will look to lay Nigel Nott if its a single figure price who I think is better over a shorter distance, Tipperary Tyger and Ballyconneely Bay could run ok here but I will be backing TOUSSARAK 11/2 who usually likes to track the leaders before running on strongly nearing the finish, its one previous c/d run is a few spot off of winning this race but if able to reproduce its best rating from Chelmsford in 2021 it would be winning with a bit in reserve. 

Toussarak 11/2 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Nigel Nott -8.5pts

Total -9.5pts

NEWCASTLE 1.30 

A 5 furlong dash with 2 known front runners, I'm not sure King Of Stars is capable beating REGIONAL 13/2 in the battle for the lead and if this one can repeat its best Chelmsford rating it would be winning a shade cosily but there's no guarantee it will like this surface but it will be carrying some of my cash, I think the top weight Good Effort 6/5 would prefer a longer trip and would be one I would look to lay especially if it is a short priced favourite which is what the tissue prices predict, I have MONDAMMEJ 7/2 as my top rated just 3lbs higher than VENTUROUS 8/1 in 2nd top spot, as the latter usually races more prominently than the former it may get first run on its rival but I cannot split them confidently and I am not sure if it will be worthwhile dutching 3 horses in a 5 runner race so the betting will be the deciding factor in this race. It's one of those races do I dutch 3 runners or do I lay the hot favourite or maybe be brave and do both, what you do is up to you I only ever say what I intend to be backing or laying and I will only make my mind up near the off time.

Venturous 25/1 1st +25pts + CSF £116,74 

Mondammej 4/1 2nd -1pt 

Regional 7/1 4th -1pt 

Total +23pts

Total on the day +17.5pts

Lay bets must be priced single-figure odds at sp or no bet

11:50 Southwell Racing Tips (17th December)

SOUTHWELL 11.50 

There is four amongst this field of eleven that have been known to lead before so it should be a true run affair, I will look to lay both Tropics 8/1 and The Bell Conductor 7/1 as I think both of them are better on the other All-Weather surface, there are others but I expect they will not be of value to lay, Outrage has been known to lead and could run a decent race if at its best but the trainers 0-5 record at this course and the jockeys 0-9 for the stable puts me off its chances, Charming Kid is another possible pacesetter but the trainer hasn't had a winner in over a month which puts me off this one, as for finding the winner I will be back two horses, one that could set the pace or at least be near the front from the off and one that comes from off the pace, if SECRETINTHEPARK 9/2 does get to the front on this five furlong straight course it could prove hard to catch while my other horse GIOGIOBBO 7/2 who has already won on the new surface here likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly in the closing stages and may have been found a decent opportunity to follow in this race but as usual I prefer to cover the angles as its sometimes hard to know which tactics will win the race. 

Secretinthepark 11/2 7th -1pt

Giogobbo 4/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bets The Bell Conductor -6pts

Total -8pts    

KEMPTON 7.45 

Of the twelve runners in this race seven of them are three year olds who could still have some improvement to come but I am hoping its not in this race, I have a few marked down as possible lays but maybe only Coolagh Magic 6/1 will be of any value to lay, I think this horse will be much better when racing over a longer distance, there is a couple of known front running types and one of them Julie Johnston is my 4th top rated so could go well from a prominent position, Griggy may need to be held up here if its to have a chance of winning as it seems a better horse over a shorter distance but still comes out 3rd best on my speed figures, Lesha comes out in 2nd top spot but this ones best time comes from Chelmsford while its best over this course and distance isn't good enough to register on my figures so I'm not really sure what to expect but it could run well but my money will be riding on the other horse that's been known to lead before and if BARRINGTON 11/2 gets to the front from stall 2 it could gain control of the rails and then prove hard to catch.

Barrington 15/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Coolagh Magic +1pt

Total 0pts 

Total on the day  -8pts

All lay bets must be single figure odds at sp else do not qualify