5:30 Southwell Racing Tips (6th April)

SOUTHWELL 5.30 

A field of 10 for this class 6 dash where I can see 3 front running types and this race ought to be won from the front as long as they don't battle each other too hard and then fade nearing the finish and if they do exactly that then Nellie French 12/1 my 3rd top rated or The Tron 7/1 who is my 2nd top rated could prosper and catch the leaders well inside the final furlong but there is only 1lb between this pair so it might be down to luck which one of them goes best. Han Solo Berger 15/2 will be one I will lay if its a single figure price as it hasn't been in good form recently and might be a better prospect when racing on the Polytrack surface. Lynn's Boy my 4th top rated likes to front run so could go well but my money will be riding on THRILLA IN MANILA 25/1 who hasn't shown its best form in its 2 runs this year but if able to reproduce its best 2022 course and distance rating it would win this race a shade cosily so if getting to the front it could be hard to catch. 

Thrilla In Manila 33/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bet: Hans Solo Berger -8pts

Total -9pts

SOUTHWELL 8.00 

A full house of 14 for this class 6 sprint where I can see 2 known front running types and as they are my 3rd and joint top rated horses a lot of this field won't become competitive in this race. If Alkido 10/1 is a single figure price near the off I will be laying it as it would need to improve time wise and may not stay the distance with a fast early pace which looks more than likely in this race. Autumn Flight 15/2 and Gisseles Izzy 9/2 are my 5th and 4th top rated with just 2lb’s between them but would need others to falter to make the frame, Gunnerside 12/1 in stall 2 is my 3rd top rated and one of the possible pacesetters and with its 3lb claiming apprentice on board it is only 2lbs below my joint top rated pair Jenever 7/2 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly nearing the finish so with a perfect run it could dead heat with USTATH 10/1 but this one from stall 4 is the other known front running type and if getting the fractions right could lead all the way.

Ustath 10/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -10pts

4:56 Southwell Racing Tips (1st January)

SOUTHWELL 4.56 

Only 8 runners for this class 2 dash with 3 of the runners having been known to lead before but I think/hope that they set the race up for something coming from off the pace, King Of Bovaria 6/1 has won over this distance but looks a better prospect when racing over further and can be slow away at times which is handicap which ought to prevent it from catching the leaders so I will look to lay this runner. The 3 likely pacesetters, Fine Wine, Bedford Flyer and The Bell Conductor all have decent ratings, Fine Wine is top rated using just Newcastle's ratings but drops to 3rd top spot on course and distance ratings, Bedford Flyer is my 2nd top rated on course and distance times and 2nd top on Wolverhampton ratings while The Bell Conductor hasn't done a great rating at this course and distance but comes out in joint 2nd position using Newcastle’s ratings, so the trio look fast and capable but if they go off too fast and fade then ALLIGATOR ALLEY 4/1 may take advantage it is the other joint 2nd top on Newcastle ratings but this one is in top spot on course and distance ratings, it has won its last 2 races and has been found a good opportunity to complete the hattrick in this race and also has good trainer and jockey stats. 

Alligator Alley 4/1 1st +4pts

Lay bet King Of Bovaria +1pt

Total +5pts

SOUTHWELL 5.26 

Another 8 runner dash with 3 known front running types but this time its a class 5 race, Sir Gregory may need further to show its best so should be staying on at the finish in this race but its not one I could confidently put forward as a lay bet as its my 2nd top rated on course and distance times but if a short price then I might take that risk. If Modular Magic is a single figure price then it would be of value to lay as it hasn't been in good form in its latest races and needs to improve time wise on what its shown so far over today's course and distance. I will be hoping that THRILLA IN MANILA 10/1 (EW) can either lead or at least contest the lead and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch as it is my top rated on course and distance ratings and 2nd top rated on Newcastle’s ratings and as long as all 8 runners take part in the race then I would go with an each way bet, top rated on Newcastle times is Beneficiary 7/2 but this one is only 3rd best on course and distance ratings so I will have to back both horses but my stakes will be tilted in favour on the former as its rating are more relevant to this race.

Thrilla In Manila 16/1 7th -2pts

Lay bet Modular Magic +1pt

Total -1pt

Total on the day +4pts

1:50 Yarmouth Racing Tips (9th June)

YARMOUTH 1.50 

A field of 13 runners with just the one known front running type amongst them, I will look to lay both Pedestal 9/2 who has never won over this distance and on recent form its held by Twice As Likely who is my 5th top rated horse, and Thake 6/1 who races as though its better over a shorter distance and as usual that's it they are single figure prices, I cannot with any confidence narrow it down to less than 3 horses so I will be dutching the 3 of them, the top weight ROCKESBURY 9/1 is the one that could set the pace and it comes out top rated but that is using a time from on the AW at Chelmsford and taking into consideration the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim, LINCOLN RED 8/1 is 3rd best on my figures but has run to the same level for both 2019 and 2020 so is capable of being competitive here and this one has decent trainer/jockey stats so could be worth an each way interest, NIBRAS SHADOW 7/2 is the 3rd one in my list to dutch but this one has poor trainer/jockey stats with the stables older horses. 

Rockesby 11/1 1st +11pts (Betfair SP 15.5) + £83.60 EX

Lincoln Red 8/1 2nd -pt

Nibras Shadow 4/1 8th 

Total +9pts

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HAMILTON 8.15 

Only 6 runners with one known front running type amongst them, I will look to lay Fendale 7/2 who might prefer a shorter trip and Equidae 9/2 who may be better over further, Call Me Ginger is my 3rd top rated and the jockey has a 15% win ratio for the stable, the early pace might be set by BREAKING RECORDS 7/1 who is my 2nd top rated so could be hard to catch for most of the others but I do have ABEL HANDY 11/1 rated higher, the trainers 1-28 win record here and the jockeys 1-27 win record is quite a bit off-putting but I don't think I have any choice so I will be backing them both to cover the angles. 

Abel Handy 16/1 4th -1pt 

Breaking Records 7/1 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

HAMILTON 8.45 

What a dire looking race which sure wont take much winning and I only have 2 horses with recorded speed figures with rest being a bunch of slowcoaches, firstly I will look at Corton Lass 8/1 to lay if its a single figure price who might prefer a longer as might Lord Of The Glen 7/4 who I will also hope to lay, Signore Piccolo is the only known front running type in the race and with an easy lead could go well and maybe worth an each way interest, Guardia Svizzera i my 2nd top rated who might be better over further on good to firm ground and hasn't won since 2018 so I will be backing THRILLA IN MANILA 9/4 who just looks the best of a poor lot but i expect it will be to the fore in the betting but the trainer does have a 15% win ratio with the older horses at this course.

Thrilla In Manila 9/4 1st +2.25pts (Betfair SP 2.76) 

Total on the day: +9.25pts

2:45 Ayr Racing Tips (19th May)

AYR 2.45 

Normally with only one sprint for the day, that's if the going is good or faster, I would write a piece up for each horse but this race is so dire and most of the field have not got enough positives for me to be able to comment about them so I will concentrate on what looks to be the four main contenders as everything else is forecast to be a double-figure price. 

The 3yo Tamaska 11/4 is forecast to be the favourite. It won last time out over this distance on good to firm going at Ripon but that was a slow run affair and I think this will be run at a decent pace so maybe that win flattered it but don't forget this race won't take much winning so, as we know, its in good form it could improve enough to follow up here. 

Corton Lass 9/1 is forecast as being the 4th favourite but once again it might have been flattered when finishing 3rd last time out on good going in a slow run affair and I will look to lay it if its a single figure price. The early pace could,or should I say I hope it does, be set by Major Valentine 9/2 and this one is my 2nd top rated horse and it is coming out of stall 2 which will hopefully mean my selection THRILLA IN MANILA 6/1 from stall 4 can track it in the early stages and then stay on the stronger at the finish and the trainer does have a decent 18% win ratio at this course with their older horses and if this one can reproduce its best time from Yarmouth in 2020 then it could get back to winning ways but as I said this race wont take much winning so any stakes will be kept low.

Thrilla In Manila 7/1 3rd -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt