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Friday, 20 September 2019

8:20 Newcastle Racing Tips (20th September)

NEWCASTLE 8.20 

FARD hasn't any form over this distance one the AW tracks but its times on g/f going are on the slow side and it may need further to show its best.

 PEACHEY CARNEHAN this front running type is on a losing run of 12 races but hasn't run over this c/d this year and its best from 2018 would make it 3rd top-rated so could make the frame and might be an each-way bet. 

GROUPIE is 0-3 on the AW and has lost its last 15 races, has slow times on g/f ground at this distance and this might be too short for it to show its best but the trainer does have a decent 19% win rate at this course with its older horses. 

EXTRASOLAR always looks as though this distance stretches it stamina so this straight course might not suit it and I doubt it will/can break its losing run of 13. 

KELLINGTON KITTY is 0-10 on the AW tracks which doesn't inspire me, its best from Chelmsford would make it 4th top so would need to improve for the switch to this surface to win this race. 

A HUNDRED ECHOES has only had 4 runs and they were all quite poor and looks as though it will need further in time to show its true worth. 

SALMON FISHING is a maiden after 12 attempts it ran a slow time at Wolverhampton this distance and maybe another that needs further.

INGLEBY MOLLY won for me 2 runs ago and it does come out 2nd top on just this years times but that seems to be its limit, it could make the frame if on a going day but I'm doubting whether it can win this race but the apprentice jockey does well for this stable with a 24% win ratio. 

ROCKLEY POINT this one comes out top rated on 2019 times and joint top overall and is versatile with its racing tactics and also has a good jockey booking. 

TADAANY this one comes out joint top overall using its best time from 2018 here and this is its 1st run of the year on the AW but it's on a losing run of 11 but could make the frame. 

LITTLE MISS KODI has a time from Kempton that would make it 5th top-rated but may need further to shine properly and its another on a long losing run, 11. 

VIKING WAY is 0-4 on the AW and its best from 2018 wouldn't be good enough to make the frame but hasn't been running too bad at times this year. 

BREATHOFFRESHAIR its best from last year would make it 6th best and hasn't been in form recently. 

ONE LAST HUG has only raced 4 times but shown very little and may need further in time to shine. 

SUMMARY: The draw doesn't really matter on this straight course and there's 3 known frontrunners in this race but all drawn in 7 and lower so that maybe the right side of the draw to be on in this race, one of them Peachey Carnehan is my 3rd top-rated so could go well and possibly stay there long enough to make the frame, Tadaany is having its 1st run of the year on any AW track which could revitalise it and being my 2nd top-rated it could stay on to make the frame but my top rated horse ROCKLEY POINT 20/1 is another front runner so if this one leads it could prove very hard to catch and the jockeys 22% win rate for the stable makes me think they are expecting a good run here.

Rockley Point 25/1 4th

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