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Friday 4 October 2019

5:25 Southwell Racing Tips (4th October)


REQUITED 2/1 this one is my top rated and also has decent trainer stats to back up its case, it's usually held up for a run and there looks as though it should be a race run to suit its style. 

FAIRY FAST 9/2 hasn't run on this surface before, it's also 0-7 on the AW tracks but has been placed in 5 of those 7 races so could make an each-way bet if a big price, which I doubt but at the price I would lay the win part. 

NEWSTEAD ABBEY is one of the possible pacemakers in this race and stall 3 isn't too bad a draw plus it comes out 4th top on my own unique speed figures so could go well enough to make the frame if others falter. 

SENORITA GRANDE 4/1 another that hasn't raced here before but has form with some cut in the ground on turf to suggest it could take to this surface so it could go well.

MURQAAB hasn't been placed from 4 runs on the AW tracks but none of them were at this course and it has won at this distance with cut in the ground so could go well here. 

ESSENZA 7/1 has finished 2nd over this course and distance before but that was in a slow run affair so could be dangerous to ignore but it looks as though further would suit it better.

BEE MACHINE 10/1 this one also hasn't any form on this surface and everything points to it wanting further so not for me in this race and if it shortens to a single figure price I would lay it.

ALWAYS AMAZING 11/2 usually likes to track the leaders and could be ok from stall 5 to sit just behind the pace ready to pounce and could make the frame. 

THESPINNINGWHEEL this is its handicap debut after 3 runs, it hasn't shown much at all in its races so far and I think it might need further to show its worth. 

THE GINGERBREADMAN I'm not convinced this is its best surface but it does have a c/d time that would make it 2nd best at this low in the weights and its another that likes to track the pacesetters. 

CHAMPAGNE MONDAYS this one has won over this c/d but it was a very slow run affair but it is a possible frontrunner and stall 1 is ideal but whether it's fast enough in the early stages to lead or not has to be seen. 

SUMMARY: This being the only sprint for me to analyse I thought I would go into more depth and suggest other ways than trying to find the winner to make a profit from the race and Fairy Fast is one of them it seems to run good time after time without winning and makes the frame a lot of the time so its one to bet for a place only on a betting exchange and maybe lay the win part, both Essenza and Bee Machine might need further so I would look to lay them, the question is how big a price are you willing to lay I personally dont lay at over 10/1 because all of my work is done looking at horses quietly fancied in the betting and I would suggest you should do the same if laying a horse solely on my say so ( please do a little research yourself, I dont everything right every time) my money in this race will be riding on the topweighted REQUITED 2/1 who I suspect will be the favourite or very close to the fore of the betting, it is usually held up for a late run and with the early pace drawn either side of its stall 2 draw it could get a good tow into the race and then stay on the stronger at the finish the trainer does reasonably well at this course and it has been found an opportunity to get back to winning ways, im not happy with the price but I cannot recommend anything to back against it.

Requited 2/1 1st

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