3:50 Southwell Racing Tips (22nd December)

SOUTHWELL 3.50 

The early pace to this race could be set by Khabib 7/2 and/or Level Up 25/1 but the latter has been in poor form in its recent runs so I expect the former to be the pacesetter here and if able to reproduce its best of 2022 it would lead all the way for the win but its best of this year has been 6lbs lower which still gives it an each way chance especially if its allowed an easy lead, but they don't happen often over the minimum distance which we have here, it beat Twilight 5/2 2 runs ago in a photo finish and the latter is weighted to overturn that form in this race so another possible each way wager but that was a class 5 race so they are both up in class here and I'm never convinced many horses can reproduce the same level when upped in class although many do run well. Reigning Profit is another that would go well if reproducing its best 2022 rating but so far this year its best has been 24lbs below that standard and I expect it will be an outsider, my money will be riding on POP DANCER 6/1 who has won at this level and can be held up at the rear or in midfield and then stay on the stronger nearing the finish and today its housed in stall 5 right next door to Khabib so should be a good tow into the race before proving the stronger.

Pop Dancer 20/1 5th -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt

7:30 Southwell Racing Tips (12th December)

SOUTHWELL 7.30 

A field of 13 for this class 3 dash over the minimum distance on the straight course and with 3 or 4 possible pacesetters it should be a nice race where the Tapeta form from here and Newcatle could be the most relevant in analysing this race to a conclusion. Blind Beggar recorded a decent but its was on the Polytrack surface at Chelmsford and races as though a longer distance might suit it better so if taking to the surface it could make the frame and exactly the same applies to Crimson Sand. Of the front running types in this race Strong Johnson stall 5 and/or Khabib stall 1 could do best and if one is allowed an easy lead they could be dangerous indeed and might do enough to make the frame and if pushed of the duo I would side with the latter while the other 2 front running types Lord Riddiford stall 6 and The Bell Conductor stall 13 might need to improve time wise to win this race. Bergerac and Hiya Maite could go well here the former is a hold up type while the latter likes to track the leaders but both would need to improve time wise to be winning this race. My idea of the winner and the one I will be backing is the 3yo CASTAN 17/2 who likes to track the leaders before staying on strongly at the finish and as long as its stall 9 draw doesn't prove to be its downfall this race could be run to suit it and the booking of today's jockey looks to be a positive one and a repeat of its rating recorded when winning at Newcastle this year would see it getting up close home for the victory, this will be its 1st run at this course but if taking to it then it could get back to winning ways. 

Castan 17/2 7th -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt

7:00 Southwell Racing Tips (10th October)

SOUTHWELL 7.00 

The early pace to this race could be set by Bungle Bay from stall two and being my fourth top rated it could prove hard to hard for a lot of this field of twelve but I'm not sure if there will be anything of value to lay which is a shame but hey ho that's racing. My third top rated is Billian who can deploy any racing tactics bar leading and stall three could work in it’s favour in the make-up of this race and might be worth an each way consideration. Flavius Titus is my second top rated but that rating came from Newcastle in 2021 and didn’t show much in it’s sole run over this course and distance but did run to that level on the Polytrack surface at Chelmsford last year, my ratings have got COAXING 7/1 sitting on the top spot using a rating it recorded here in 2022 and it usually runs on strongly at the finish at this distance, the trainer has a decent twenty percent strike-rate at this course with the stables older horses plus the horses 2 wins have come when today's jockey was on board and it can bounce back to form without showing any signs of doing so, I'm hoping that happens here. 

Coaxing 7/1 4th -1pt

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 7.30 

I’m not sure if this race is worth betting in as I can find negatives against my top three rated horses, I'm not sure if Canaria Prince likes this surface as it didn’t show much only it’s only All-Weather run over this course and distance while Mucky Mulconry races as though further would suit it better but this race could be run to suit it with 3 known front running types. The early pace could be set by Mehmo who is my fifth top rated and/or Zing Up who comes out second best on my figures but that rating was recorded on the Polytrack surface so I’m not sure what it will produce here but would need to improve a few spots to win the race but if able to dictate from the front it could feasibly lead all the way but with opposition for the leaders spot they might go off too fast in front and fade nearing the finish. Stallone is my fourth top rated and runs on at the finish, Brandy Station sits in third top spot using a rating from 2022 and has been well below that rating so far this year, my top rated horse is BASHOLO 11/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger nearing the finish so this race should be ideal for it but its not won from twelve previous runs on an artificial surface but has made the frame in three of them, the trainer isn’t in good form and has a poor win ratio at this course plus the apprentice jockey is 0-3 for the stable so any stakes will be kept to a minimum but I will only be betting if it’s an each way price near the off time of the race. 

Basholo 11/1 3rd +2.66pts

Total +2.66pts

Total on the day +1.66pts

7:15 Southwell Racing Tips (13th September)

SOUTHWELL 7.15

Last time out Jordan Electrics sprung back to form and could set the pace in this race but this is a better race and I doubt it can lead all the way against this opposition, Antiphon also likes to lead so there should be a fast early pace, Tyger Bay comes out in 4th top spot using a time recorded at Newcastle this year but its best here is quite a few spots lower but could make the frame, Amazonian Dream hasn't run on the AW tracks before but has recorded a fast time at Goodwood on turf so could be a danger if taking to this Tapeta surface, TOLSTOY 11/2 comes out in 2nd top spot using a time recorded at Wolverhampton it also has a time recorded on the Polytrack surface which would take it to top spot plus its proven to be in form winning last time out on turf 10 days ago a negative is the stall 13 draw, the top weight HIERARCHY 12/1 is dropped in class to run in this race and showed a pointer that it is coming in to form when finishing 4th in its last run, both of the horses I will be backing need a degree of luck with their wide draws but hopefully at least one of them will get a clear run. 

Hierarchy 12/1 4th -1pt  

Tolstoy 15/2 9th 1pt

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 8.15

In this race I can see a trio of front running types so it ought to be a true run race especially over this straight course but I think a middle to low draw can have a slight advantage, Lil Guff hasn't any form on this surface but its best turf rating would give it a chance as it would be my 2nd top rated, Faustus is my 4th top rated in stall 14 and likes to lead so could possibly make the frame, Show Me Show Me comes out in 3rd top spot on my unique ratings and has been drawn in stall 11 so could get sandwiched between two fast starters as there's another front running type housed in stall 8, my money will be riding on the other known front running type in the shape of ANGLE LAND 6/1 who ran well when finishing 2nd last time out and has been found an ideal opportunity to go one better here from stall 4 plus it looks like Frankie Dettori is coming here to ride just this one horse so I expect it will be well backed.

Angle Land 6/1 7th -1pt

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -3pts

3:10 Southwell Racing Tips (28th August)

SOUTHWELL 3.10 

5F Class-6 14-Runners

I can see 3 horses that might set the pace to this race and on this straight course the draw isn't too significant, 2 of the possible pacesetters are 3yo’s and would need to improve time wise to win this race but they are of an age when improvement can come without warning so never discount them but I will expect Mehmo 8/1 to set the pace and being my 3rd top rated it could at least do enough to make the frame and if allowed an easy lead it could be dangerous but I will as always stick with the proven, I cannot see anything to lay that I think will be a single figure price so I will stick with looking for the winner, Micks Spirit 14/1 is my 2nd top rated on overall figures but is actually my top rated on just 2023 ratings but it hasn't shown much in its last 5 races so would need to spring back to form to have a chance of winning this race. GOLDEN RAINBOW 20/1 (EW) comes out in 4th top spot using just 2023 ratings but has a rating from 2022 that would see it winning this race a shade cosily admittedly it hasnt been in great form this year but has been slow away or held up in most of those but if it gets away on terms here it could prove the stronger nearing the finish and is dropped in class to run in this race and will be carrying my money even though it does look to be the stables 2nd string and hopefully it will be an each way price. 

Each way beat Golden Rainbow 20/1

Rainbow Gold 28/1 7th -2pts

Total on the day -2pts 

SOUTHWELL 4.25 

6F Class-6 Div1 14-Runners.

There is five 3yo’s in this race which always muddies the waters, Congress has the best form of the quintet but the time was relatively slow when it won over course and distance last time out and this looks a tougher race and once again its a race where I don't think I can find anything of value to put forward as a lay bet. Autumn Flight 12/1 is one of the two known front running types in this race and is my top rated on just 2023 course and distance ratings so could possibly win this race, The Waiting Game 11/10 won when I backed it last time out being backed down from an early 9/1 price but that was at Chelmsford on the Polytrack surface and it did win very convincingly that day leading all the way, its other victory also came over the same course and distance, so if taking to this surface it could quite easily complete its hattrick but I expect it will be a fairly short priced favourite so not really a value bet, if Eldeyaar 16/1 can reproduce its best rating from Wolverhampton last year it would be winning this race with a little bit too spare. I think the winner will come from this trio so maybe dutching them will be the way forward in this race. 

Dutch The Waiting Game 11/10 + Autumn Flight 12/1 + Eldeyaar 16/1 with a win bet and 2 each way bets. 

(For ease, I do all dutch bets 1pt win singles. JC) 

The Waiting Game 1st 11/10 +1.1pt 

Eldeyaar 18/1 2nd -1pt 

Autumn Flight 20/1 9th -1pt 

Total -0.9pts

SOUTHWELL 5.00 

6F Class-6 14-Runners 

Up to seven 3yo’s in this race it might normally be a race to tread very carefully in but from what they have shown so far one of them would have to improve to win this race. Firstly, I will look to lay Blackcurrent 8/1 if its a single price as it struggles to stay the distance in a true run race which it might get here with Tathmeen 6/1 my 3rd top rated likely to lead here, as i cannot see a natural looking front running type in this race but it has led before, and if allowed an easy lead it ought to at least do enough to make the frame and might be worth at least a bet, *Deputise 3/1 comes out in 2nd top spot but is only 2lbs higher than the 3rd top rated on 2023 ratings and only 1lb higher using 2022 ratings which shows how close things are at the top of my ratings, it would be folly to ignore Jumira Bridge 20/1 who is my top rated overall and it recorded that rating this year at Wolverhampton and is the type of horse that can spring back to from without warning so this looks to be another race where dutching 3 runners might be the solution to the race but maybe the lay should be the priority in this race.

Lay Blackcurrent 8/1

Dutch: Tathmeen 6/1 + Jumira Bridge 20/1 with 2 win bets and an each way bet.

(For ease, I do all dutch bets 1pt win singles. JC) 

Jumira Bridge 14/1 9th -1pt 

Tathmeen 12/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bet: Blackcurrent +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day: -1.9pts

2:35 Southwell Racing Tips (20th August)

SOUTHWELL 2.35

Div1 6F Class6 Stakes Race 10 Runners

Both legs of this race are poor with three 3yo’s that could improve without warning but are all forecast to be double figure prices so I couldn't back any of them, I'm not sure what will set the pace which is always a worry, Flavius Titus 5/1 and Wrath Of Hector 4/1 may need further so this race might not suit them but either of them could change their usual tactics and decide to set the pace and then there stamina could come into play so I certainly couldn't lay either of them, if there's a decent early pace then Blackcurrent might not stay the distance but I expect it to be a double figure price, Thegreatestshowman 9/2 is always capable of going well when in the mood but I doesn't represent any value at the price so i will be having a small bet on DEPUTISE 10/1, it can be held up or track the leaders which could be useful in this race, the trainer has a good record at this course and the horse is dropped in class from handicaps to these lower level stakes races. 

Back DEPUTISE 10/1

Deputise 10/1 1st +10pts

Total +10pts

 SOUTHWELL 3.05 

Div II 6F 9Runners

Once again no known front running types and also a trio of 3yo’s but none have shown enough to interest me in this race, the betting forecast makes it quite tight between the top 3 on the card although I'm not keen on Hot Scoop 6/1 and might look to lay it, Beast Of Burden 5/2 is my 2nd top rated but then there's only 2 horses that have recorded a rating recently but i will be backing COAST 10/3 who likes to track the leaders and is dropped slightly in class from handicaps here and I'm hoping that will be enough to rejuvenate it.

Back COAST 10/3 (NR) 

Lay HOT SCOOP 6/1 

Lay bet: Hot Scoop +1pt

Total +1pt

SOUTHWELL 5.10 

5F Class 6 13 Runners

First thing that grabbed my attention was that Shesadabber 5/2 has been forecast to be a shortish priced (9/4) favourite, it has won its last 2 races so is in tip top form but they were both on turf with good to soft ground, it hasn't won in 8 races on the AW tracks and has only made the frame in one of them and then its better form seems to be on the Polytrack surface so i will be looking to lay it, Under Curfew 13/2 also prefers the Polytrack surface so another to lay if its a single figure price. The bottom weight Birdie Bowers could set the pace to this race being my 2nd top rated horse and has finished in the frame in its last 2 races so could go well again here and might be worth an each way bet, Dalby Forest usually stays on at the finish over this distance and being my 4th top rated could make the frame if others falter while Brandy Station isn't one to discount too easily but my money will be riding on BLAZING HOT who indicated at a return to form when finishing 3rd last time out and is dropped in class to run here and most if not all of its wins have come at this level of racing. Ok so my original choice is now a non-runner which changes things and i will now be having a bet on BIRDIE BOWERS 7/1 who could now lead all the way as it has become my new top rated horse.

Back BIRDIE BOWERS 7/1 

Lay SHESADABBER 5/2 (NA)

Birdie Bowers 8/1 7th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day +10pts

2:00 Southwell Racing Tips (13th June)

SOUTHWELL 2.00 

5F Class 6 14 Runners This doesn't happen very often in a minimum distance dash with just one known front running type amongst them. Captain Corcoran is full octane it's like visiting an online casino wearing steel-toed boots with angel wings glued to your back. He happens to be my 3rd top rated horse so if it runs to its best a lot of these wont be able to get into the race and it could even do enough to pinch this race from the front plus the stable is in good form with a 2-7 record in the last two weeks. The 3yo Loveliest could be capable of improvement but it was a slow run race when it finished 2nd last time out so might have been flattered by that result and might be worth laying if of value to do so, I think anything else that I could confidently lay will be bigger prices and represent no value to lay. Tantastic is my 2nd top rated using a rating recorded at Newcastle last year but on course and distance ratings only it drops to 3rd top spot and with the jockeys 0-7 record when riding for this stable so I will be leaving this one alone as visit https://www.bestusacasinosites.com/mobile-casinos/. When taking into account the apprentice jockeys 7lb claim my top rated is The Tron who got outsmarted by Captain Corcoran last year and it could happen again here but if it races more prominently this time it might be able to pick up the leader nearing the finish but I will be backing them both to cover the angles. 

Bet: THE TRON 8/1 3rd -1pt, Each Way Bet: CAPTAIN CORCORAN 25/1 Unp -2pts 

Lay: LOVELIEST 13/2 N/A

Total on the day -3pts

4:10 Southwell Racing Tips (11th May)

SOUTHWELL 4.10

A smallish field of 7 for this class 5 sprint where I think the early pace will most likely be set by Stalingrad but this one is still a maiden after 19 races and 8 of those have been on an artificial surface but its best rating recorded on Tapeta at Wolverhampton would give it at least a chance of doing enough to make the frame, Roshambo 6/1 is my 4th top rated but may need this run for fitness and I will look to lay it if of value to do so nearing the off, Bill Plumb 9/4 comes out 3rd on my figures and if a short priced favourite then I would look to lay it but it would need to be no bigger than 5/2 near the off to be value in my opinion. Blackjack sits in 2nd top spot and likes to track the leaders as does RHYTHM 11/2 who is my top rated and the one that will be carrying my money. 

Rhythm 13/2 5th -1pt 

Lay bets: Roshambo +1pt, Bill Plumb +1pt 

Total +1pt

SOUTHWELL 5.13 

Another 7 runner race in this class 5 dash where 4 of the runners have been known to lead before although Yimou might not be able to lead in this race but does come out 3rd best on my ratings with front running Thegreatestshowman rated just 1lb lower in 4th top spot. Of those coming from off the pace I expect Josies Kid to do best as it comes out in 2nd top spot and only 3lbs below GRANDFATHER TOM 6/5 in top spot but I expect this one will be a hot favourite, so only really of any use in a multiple bet, but I cannot see anything to oppose it with so has to be the one I back one way or another.

Grandfather Tom 11/5 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

CHELMSFORD 6.30 

Just 6 runners for this class 6 dash, Spanish Angel, Vandad and Fiscal Policy might be better over further while Tomshalfbrother might need this race for fitness. Red Walls is my 2nd top rated using course and distance times and this one likes to front run but doesn't do as well when taken on early for the lead so being that MUSTAFFIZ 4/1 is rated higher, even though its only by 1lb but with the apprentice jockeys 3lb claim its now makes it rated 4lb’s lower, also likes to front run it might have to give way and then Mustaffiz should prove the stronger in the closing stages.

Mustaffiz 5/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt 

2:05 Southwell Racing Tips (8th May)

SOUTHWELL 2.05 

Just 7 runners for this class 6 dash over the straight 5 furlong course on the Tapeta surface where the early pace might be set by Dapper Man 2/1 and/or Thegreatestshowman 11/1 but I doubt that either of them can hold on for the win, I actually doubt they will make the frame unless one of them is allowed an easy lead but I would look to lay both of them if of value to lay, Show Me A Sunset will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late to win this race as it would need to improve time wise to even make the frame but very often when a fancied horse cannot win the race it stops being ridden out and something unexpected then makes the frame. I've got Primo and Apache Star as my joint 3rd top rated horses and the former might be better suited to a longer distance race. Snow Berry who usually likes to track the leaders is my 2nd top rated horse so could go well here but if THE TRON 8/1 can reproduce its best rating recorded over this course and distance four runs ago it would win this race a shade cosily. 

The Tron 8/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets: The Dapper Man -2pts

Total -3pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.40 

A field of 9 for this class 6 dash with a couple of known front running types, Another Angel 5/4 is one of them but in this race it only comes out in 3rd top spot but did win very easily just the other day so cannot be ignored but I wouldn't back it at such a short price as I think it represents poor value. I'm not sure if the drop in trip will suit Stallone 13/2 but has faded over 6 furlongs so it might suit it but it could also get outpaced here so not sure whether I would lay it or not, I will be hoping that ROCKLEY POINT 9/1 (EW) can either lead or at least pester Another Angel for the lead and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and at the price it might be best to have an each way bet. 

Rockley Point 9/1 3rd +1.8pts

Total +0.8pts 

NEWCASTLE 8.45 

A full complement of 14 for this class 6 sprint where I can see 3 natural front running types and one other that can lead but doesn't need to so it should be a fast early pace, I'm not sure if there is anything at a value price to lay in this race, I have 5 or more marked down as having virtually no chance but I expect they will all be double figure priced horses. Hilary's Boy is my 4th top rated but hasn't been in good form lately which is enough to put me off siding with this one, I've got BAYRAAT 8/1 (EW) marked down as my top rated but the trainer has had 33 runners over the last 231 days without having a winner which is a little off-putting and I could confidently back it as a sole selection, my 2nd top rated horse is TATHMEEN 10/1 (EW) and this horse is more than capable of winning a race like this one and this is the horse that I said could lead but doesn't need to to win a race so I was going to back the 2 selections but then I noticed my 3rd top rated ELDEYAAR 20/1 (EW) is from the same stable and this is one of the more natural front running types and when i checked the jockey stats I saw that the jockey Ray Dawson has had three rides for the stable and has won on two of them so I couldn't back the stables other runner without also backing this one so I will be having an each way bet on all 3 of them at the prices available. 

Tathmeen 12/1 6th -2pts

Bayraat 11/1 8th -2pt 

Eldyaar 20/1 Unp -2pts 

Total -6pts 

Total on the day -8.2pts

3:45 Lingfield Racing Tips (18th April)

LINGFIELD 3.45 

A field of 8 for this class 6 dash but rather strangely only 1 known front running type in the shape of Fair And Square 7/2 who is also my 2nd top rated so if my top rated doesn't reproduce its best I will be having a covering bet on this horse but as usual my top rated horse will be my main bet. I'm Mable’s best rating has gone downhill since 2021 but a repeat of that rating would put it at the top of my ratings but it has been in poor form recently, Sparked and Pacopask are forecast to be the outsiders and have very little chance of winning on my figures but as usual never say never while Battle Point 4/1 my 5th top rated and Master Sully 9/2 my 4th top rated would need to improve a few spots time wise or the others to run poorly to win this race but I'm not sure I could actually put my head on the block and lay this pair unless they are too big in value to let run without having a lay bet on them. Suanni 7/1 is my 3rd top rated but this one has needed a run to gain fitness after a break so may need today's race to get back to race fitness. My top rated is STORM MELODY 13/2 its best rating from this year would make it competitive while its best 2022 rating would see it winning a shade cosily and the jockey does quite well for the stable and this one will be my main bet in this race with a smaller covering bet on the one that I think will set the pace to this race. 

Storm Melody 13/2 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 8.30 

A turnout of 10 for this class 6 sprint where half the runners have been known to lead before and seem to be natural front running types so this race should be fast and furious for its class. Majeski Man 7/1 is drawn best of the front runners in stall 3 but would need to improve a good few spots to win this race and it might not be fast enough to lead in this race and I will lay this one if of value to do so. If I go back to 2021 then Spartan Fighter 8/1 would be my top rated but it hasn't been near that rating since then and I usually only use this years and last years ratings to evaluate each horses chance of winning a race, Gunnerside 17/2 is my top rated on recent, 2022 +2023, ratings but this one has never won at this level, Papa Cocktail 4/1 is my actual 2nd top rated but hasn't shown much in its recent races. My money will be riding on BLACKJACK 9/2 who is my 3rd top rated but is the highest rated horse without a negative against its name so has to be the one I back and this race might be run to suit a horse coming from off the pace also the trainer has done well at this course since they changed the surface and the jockey has a 23% strike rate when riding for the stable.

Blackjack 5/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

5:00 Southwell Racing Tips (9th April)

SOUTHWELL 5.00 

A 9 runner class 5 race with 2 known front running types amongst them in Airshow 9/2 and Woodland Charms, the former's best rating comes from Wolverhampton while its 4 runs at this course have produced ratings too low to register on my figures and if its a single figure price I will look to lay this one while the latter has just 2 poor runs at Wolverhampton to its name on this surface and I expect will be an outsider. Mega Marvel has only slow times from its ventures at both Newcastle and Wolverhampton but I'm not sure if they were slow run races or the surface was riding slow on those days so it could be a hidden danger. Dark Side Thunder 5/1 and Em Jay Kay 3/1 would both need to improve time wise to win this race and both can be held up for late runs or track the leaders, Notable 16/1 is my 4th top rated and usually races in midfield and is only 2lb below the 3rd rated horse so could make the frame if others falter, the horse in 3rd top spot is Claim The Stars 20/1 who can be held up or track the pacesetters. *BLACKJACK 4/1 is actually my 2nd top rated using a time it recorded over this course and distance this year and will be my main bet in this race but because CHURCHILL BOY 12/1 (EW) is rated 3lbs higher I will also have to back this one but mainly as a covering bet and hopefully it will be an each way price, because this one has had 14 runs, with 5 being on an artificial surface, and hasn't won any of them and that's the reason why its not my sole bet in this race.

*NR

Churchill Boy 20/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Airshow +1pt 

Total on the day 0pts 

5:30 Southwell Racing Tips (6th April)

SOUTHWELL 5.30 

A field of 10 for this class 6 dash where I can see 3 front running types and this race ought to be won from the front as long as they don't battle each other too hard and then fade nearing the finish and if they do exactly that then Nellie French 12/1 my 3rd top rated or The Tron 7/1 who is my 2nd top rated could prosper and catch the leaders well inside the final furlong but there is only 1lb between this pair so it might be down to luck which one of them goes best. Han Solo Berger 15/2 will be one I will lay if its a single figure price as it hasn't been in good form recently and might be a better prospect when racing on the Polytrack surface. Lynn's Boy my 4th top rated likes to front run so could go well but my money will be riding on THRILLA IN MANILA 25/1 who hasn't shown its best form in its 2 runs this year but if able to reproduce its best 2022 course and distance rating it would win this race a shade cosily so if getting to the front it could be hard to catch. 

Thrilla In Manila 33/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bet: Hans Solo Berger -8pts

Total -9pts

SOUTHWELL 8.00 

A full house of 14 for this class 6 sprint where I can see 2 known front running types and as they are my 3rd and joint top rated horses a lot of this field won't become competitive in this race. If Alkido 10/1 is a single figure price near the off I will be laying it as it would need to improve time wise and may not stay the distance with a fast early pace which looks more than likely in this race. Autumn Flight 15/2 and Gisseles Izzy 9/2 are my 5th and 4th top rated with just 2lb’s between them but would need others to falter to make the frame, Gunnerside 12/1 in stall 2 is my 3rd top rated and one of the possible pacesetters and with its 3lb claiming apprentice on board it is only 2lbs below my joint top rated pair Jenever 7/2 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly nearing the finish so with a perfect run it could dead heat with USTATH 10/1 but this one from stall 4 is the other known front running type and if getting the fractions right could lead all the way.

Ustath 10/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -10pts

2:25 Lingfield Racing Tips (31st March)

LINGFIELD 2.25

A 12 runner race where I can see 3 horses that could lead but it looks likely that they will be setting the race up for something coming from off the pace. Toplight 11/2 might struggle to say the distance with the fast early pace so maybe one to lay, Viewfromthestars 11/2 my 4th top rated and Dark Design 7/1 my 3rd top rated are both versatile with their racing tactics and that includes leading so either could do enough to make the frame but neither are what I would call each way prices, Real Estate 12/1 sits in 2nd top spot and likes to track the leaders so could make the frame and maybe worth an each way wager if it stays at a double figure price nearing the off while my top rated horse DEPUTISE 18/1 can be held up or track the leaders it hasn't been in the best of form recently and it looks to have had excuses in most of those races but the switch of jockey looks a significant as his record is 3 wins from just 7 rides for the stable.

Deputise 25/1 9th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 4.20

This class 4 dash has 6 front running types amongst the 14 entrants and it looks most likely it will be won from the front, *Justcallmepete 5/1 might prefer further so I will look to lay it, Bert Kibler 7/1 is my 3rd top rated and could do best of those coming from off the pace and if the leaders battle too hard and fade it could possibly win the race but I will hope that doesn't happen, Khabib 10/1 comes out in 2nd top spot and is in stall 2 while my top rated horse ANGLE LAND 4/1 is drawn in stall 13 and if this one gets to the front it ought to prove too hard to catch. 

*NR

Angle Land 9/2 2nd -1pt  

Total -1pt 

LINGFIELD 4.35

A field of 9 for this 5 furlong dash with 4 of the runners having been known to lead before so it should be a fast and furious race. Storm Melody 7/1 won last time out but might be outclassed as its never won at this level before but could still run a decent race so I will look to lay it but only for the win part, Man On A Mission 7/2 could do best of the rest coming from off the pace but looks too short in the betting for its actual chance of winning this race, The Defiant 12/1 is a front running type and could go well but hasn't been in good form recently so not sure what to expect, so I will be hoping the top weight PABLO DEL PUEBLO 9/2 can get to the front and prevail but this one also hasn't won at this level before but this does look the easiest class 5 race its ever ran in which is the reason why its the top weight.

Pablo Del Pueblo 9/2 8th -1pt 

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 6.20

I can see 2 front running types in this 11 runner dash in the shape of High Security and Murbih 9/2 who is my 4th top rated, I will look to lay Princess Karine 12/1 who may prefer further and its wins on Turf have come in slow run races if its a single figure price, Kraken Power 3/1 is my 3rd top rated and like the 2nd top rated Our Absent Friends 7/1 likes to track the leaders so they should ensure the pace is fast which could play into the hands of GOLDEN RAINBOW 12/1 (EW) and the jockey has a respectable 17% win ratio when riding for the stable and as usual at the price it has to be an each way bet.

Golden Rainbow 12/1 8th -2pts 

Total -2pts 

NEWCASTLE 8.20

A problem race with no known front running types so any stakes are automatically going to be lower than normal, Henry Hawk might be better over further so this race might not be run to suit it and might be worth laying if a single figure price, One Hart 9/2 is my 3rd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders but also might need further so this race might not suit it, Kapono 11/1 is capable of winning this race but hasn't been in good form lately and the apprentice jockey has a poorish 6% strike rate for the stable, I will take a punt on TATHMEEN 9/1 it is a hold up type but has got a better final kick than most of these so hopefully can get to the front in time but as I said it will only be for small stakes.

Tathmeen 11/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -6pts

6:00 Chelmsford Racing Tips (16th March)

CHELMSFORD 6.00 

A field of 8 for this class 5 amateur jockeys race and the word amateur automatically means my stakes will be kept to a minimum, there isn't any known front running types in this race which is always a worry, I will look to lay Shalaa Asker 4/1 who struggles to stay this distance with a fast early pace, so the race could play into its hands but if its held up as usual then it might find the leaders not tiring near the finish because I'm pretty sure one or more will set the pace and they might then go off too fast, so that's why a race is harder to analyse without any known early paced types. Hit Mac is my 3rd top rated and also seems to be better over further so ought to run into a place here. If Lilkian 9/4 could reproduce its best 2021 rating then it would be joint top rated but has been well below that level since then, i will be backing EL HOMBRE 6/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and the stable has a reasonable 17% win ratio in apprentice jockey races. 

El Hombre 6/1 5th -1pt

Lay bet: Shalaa Asker -2.25pts

Total -3.25pts 

SOUTHWELL 8.10 

A field of 13 for this class 6 dash and 4 of them have been known to lead before, I'm not sure there will be anything of value to lay in this race, The Tron races as though further would suit it better and is 3rd best on my figures so could run on strongly enough to make the frame, Brandy Station comes out in joint top spot and likes to track the leaders so could do enough to make the frame but might not be able to catch USTATH 3/1 who is my other joint top rated so as it should have 1st run on its main contenders it could lead all the way and just hold on for the win. 

Ustath 4/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

CHELMSFORD 8.30 

I doubt I can find an each way bet but I hope all 8 runners take part so as to give 3 places for anyone who does bet each way. Dalby Forest 9/2 might be better when racing over further it will be staying on at the finish but I think too late for the win and will be one to lay if a single figure price and the same applies to Crimson Sand 9/1. Alafdhal is my 3rd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders, Saaheq 16/1 would be top rated if I used a Lingfield rating it recorded in 2022 but it usually needs a run for fitness after a break so today’s race might not be its target and I think it will one of the outsiders in the race, my money will be riding on ANGLE LAND 3/1 who is the only known front running type in the race and I expect it will lead from start to finish.

Angle Land 4/1 1st +4pts

Lay bets: Crimson Sand +1pt, Dalby Forest +1pt

Total +6pts

Total on the day +1.75pts

7:45 Newcastle Racing Tips (14th March)

NEWCASTLE 7.45 

A class 6 sprint with 9 runners and a couple of known front running types although I think Two Summers only leads when nothing else wants to and it can then set its own slightly slower pace and wont be allowed that luxury here and might need this run for fitness. Storm Master may need further to shine and will be a lay if a single figure price, while the top weight Slainte may prefer a slower surface but if the surface is riding on the slow side then it could have a chance as the slower going is a great leveller so I have to hope the surface rides normal. DEPUTISE 8/1 is my top rated using a Wolverhampton rating from 2022 but hasn't won a race since 2018 which is off-putting but could get back to winning ways here but because of the amount of time since its last win it cannot be my sole bet in this race, MERRY SECRET 12/1 usually stays on at the business end of races over this distance and is 2nd top on my figures but this one might need this run for fitness as it usually needs a run or 2 to get fit again after a break, GUNNERSIDE 4/1 is only 3rd top but is the one i expect will set the pace to this race and I can see it leading all the way here and might well have been my sole bet and i might favour it stake wise when I place my bets.

Merry Secret 12/1 1st +12pts  

Gunnerside 4/1 2nd -1pt 

Deputise 20/1 6th -1pt 

Total +10pts

NEWCASTLE 8.15 

A full house of 14 for this class 4 sprint and theres 3, Royal Parade, Swayze and Westmorian, confirmed front running types amongst them and strangely i have them all marked down as horses I couldn't lay and might be hidden dangers so if you fancy any of the trio I wouldn't put you off backing it but to me it means my stakes will be kept to a minimum. Brazen Bolt 15/2 seems to need further to show its best and would be a lay if a single figure price near the off, The Green Man 11/2 won last time out at Kempton when the surface was riding slow so may have been flattered and would need to improve a good few spots on its best Tapeta rating from Southwell to win this race, Another Investment is my 4th top rated so might be worth a small each way bet, if of value to do so (you as an individual will have to decide what price you would want before backing each way). Fortamour runs as though further would suit it better so should be staying on strongly nearing the finish but maybe a little too late for the win but with a clear run it could make the frame. Straits Of Moyle sits in 2nd top spot and is usually held up in midfield or the rear of the field for a late run and its 4th place last time out might indicate a return to form but my money will be riding on BELLAGIO MAN 9/2 who won last time out 19 days ago and has been found a good opportunity to follow up in this race. 

Bellagio Man 8/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bet Brazen Bolt +1pt

Total 0pts

SOUTHWELL 8.30 

Class 6 race with 11 runners with both Whiteandblue and Cool Lightning (now a non-runner) liking to lead but I doubt either can win the race they might even struggle to make the frame but you can never say never especially if one of them is allowed an easy lead but if a single figure price I would look to lay them. Blackjack is my 4th top rated and usually likes to track the leaders, I've got 3 horses all with the same rating at the top of my list, MY BOY JACK 9/2 who can deploy any tactics apart from setting the pace and is in tip top form having won last time out 18 days ago but the top class jockey is 0-3 when riding for the stable, IRELAND'S EYE 10/1 moves to joint top spot courtesy of the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim and likes to track the leaders, AUTUMN ANGEL 7/2 also won last time out so again is in tip top form and this one also moves to co-top spot courtesy of the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim. How I am meant to split this trio I have no idea, there's nothing particularly weak or strong in their trainer/jockey stats so I will have to dutch the trio.

My Boy Jack 9/2 2nd -1pt

Ireland's Eye 10/1 3rd -1pt

Autumn Angel 7/2 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Whiteandblue +1pt 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day +8pts

1:15 Southwell Racing Tips (9th March)

SOUTHWELL 1.15 

A full complement of 14 runners in this 5 furlong dash where half the field are known as front running types and they could well cut each others throats in the battle for the lead and setting the race up for something coming from off the pace. I'm not sure I can find anything of value to put forward as a lay, 6th top rated Bert Kibbler, joint 4th top rated Level Up, 3rd top rated Angle Land and 2nd top rated Jeans Maite are all ones that like to set the pace and any would be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but I cannot see that happening here, Man On A Mission is my other joint 4th top rated and usually likes to track the leaders before staying on at the finish but my top rated is GOLDEN RAINBOW 11/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and then runs on strongly nearing the winning line, its record on an artificial surface is 2 wins and 3 placed efforts from just 7 races but none of them have been at this course but was recorded over the straight 5 furlongs at Newcastle and a repeat of that rating would see it winning a shade cosily and a pointer that makes me think its prepared for this run after a break is the jockey booking as they have a 19% win ratio when riding on the stables older horses. 

Golden Rainbow 11/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 7.15 

A class 5 sprint with 2 possible pacesetters in the shape of Thaki, who will need to improve a bit time wise but is the more natural front running type, and Tathmeen 6/1 who is my 2nd top rated using a Southwell rating but has never won in this class of race, so it could go well but I doubt can win the race but never say never. Macho Pride 10/1 is just outside my top 4 ratings and can struggle to stay the distance in a fast run race, I will look to lay Prospect 10/1 if its a single figure price near the off as it might be better suited to a longer distance race and might need this run for fitness after a break. Shabaaby has a rating from 2020 which would put it in 3rd top spot but that rating is now looking like a fluke time recorded when getting towed along in a fast run race. My top rated horse is CHURCHILL BOY 40/1 (EW) but this one is still a maiden after 13 runs and the jockey is 0-11 for the stable although it is dropped in class compared to a lot of its previous races so with the negatives I cannot back it on its own but might be worth an each way interest and at the price I cannot let it run without having a bet on it, ONE MORE DREAM 5/1 is only 4th best on my figures but with negatives against the 3 above it in the ratings it could be the one to prosper if their failings come into play, it usually likes to track the leaders and has good trainer/jockey stats.

One More Dream 5/1 1st +5pts 

Churchill Boy 80/1 3rd +15pts

Total +20pts

Total on the day +19pts

5:00 Southwell Racing Tips (28th February)

SOUTHWELL 5.00 

An eleven runner stakes dash with 2 known front running types in Blackcurrent and Another Angel and maybe the latter will do best of this pair as its my 3rd top rated so many other runners may not be able to get competitive in this race. I'm not sure if there will be anything of value to lay here, Stroxx has had 38 runs to date with 17 of them being on an artificial surface, it has made the frame on 7 occasions but hasn't won a race but has run well most of the time recently but this trip is maybe a little bit too short for it was beaten a length last time out by THE TRON 7/2 and at level weights again I cannot see any reason why this one shouldn't follow up here and win again. 

The Tron 7/2 1st +3.5pts

Total +3.5pts

SOUTHWELL 8.00 Div I

I can see Della Mare 7/1 setting the pace in this 12 runner class 6 sprint but will need to improve a few spots to hold on for the win but being my 5th top rated it could do enough from the front to make the frame, both Twentysharesofgrey 15/2 and Tricky Business 8/1 run as though further would suit them better and might be worth laying if a single figure price at the off. Gunnerside 4/1 won over this distance but in a slow time but not sure if it was a slow run race or the surface was riding on the slow side so I couldn't back this one nor lay it. Using a Newcastle rating Elisheva comes out in 4th top spot while using a Wolverhampton rating Fristel sits in 3rd top spot so both could go well if taking to this surface and any improvement for the switch could make them very dangerous. Hilary's Boy is either held up in midfield or at the back of the field and comes with a late run and could feasibly make the frame being my 2nd top rated using a course and distance rating from last year, my money will be riding on GISELLES IZZY 4/1 who is another that usually races in midfield before staying on the stronger at the finish and it recorded its best rating this year which shows its in good form. 

Giselles Izzy 4/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 8.30 Div II

This is the slightly better division and this time I can see 2 known pacesetters although I doubt Ustath could lead all the way for the victory in this race, I'm not sure there's anything I could put forward as a worthwhile lay that's going to be of value to lay. Deputise 4/1 is my 4th top rated using a recent course and distance rating and could make the frame but I doubt it will be an each way price. My Boy Jack 7/2 and Billian 8/1 finished first and second when they met on their last run at Wolverhampton and using those ratings the former comes out in top spot again but both of them haven't produced their best tapeta ratings at this course so I'm not convinced they can reproduce their best here so I will go with BIG IMPACT 15/2 who is the other known front running type and I think it could lead all the way in this race, its my top rated on just course and distance ratings so I'm hoping its enough to get it back to winning ways.

Big Impact 15/2 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day +1.5pts

2:25 Southwell Racing Tips (23rd February)

SOUTHWELL 2.25 

A class four eleven runner sprint with 3 known front running types amongst them, both Intervention 6/1 and Shalaa Asker 11/2 who won last time out, have never won at class 4 level and are not in my top 4 ratings so maybe worth taking on but only if of value to do so, Watermelon Sugar 25/1 is my 4th top rated and can be held up or track the leaders and if able to reproduce its best Tapeta rating from last year could be worth a small each way punt, Churchill Bay 33/1 recorded one fast time at Wolverhampton last year but that is now looking like a fluke time when it got towed along in a fast run race, Melly Flyer 16/1 along with Intervention will ensure there's a fast early gallop but if WALKING ON CLOUDS 11/4, who has finished first or second in its last 5 starts gets to the front it could lead all the way plus it has good trainer, at this course, and jockey, for this stable, stats and could add another winning run to its name. 

Walking On Clouds 3/1 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets Intervention +1pt, Shalaa Asker +1pt 

Total +1pt 

SOUTHWELL 4.10 

A 9 runner class 4 dash where a third of the field have been known to lead before but it looks most likely that they will be setting it up for something finishing well from off the pace as Lihou 13/2, Murbih 11/2 nor Bert Kibbler 7/2 are in my top 4 ratings. Micks Spirit 11/2 might be better off racing on the Polytrack surface while Dalby Forest 5/1 might prefer a longer distance so both might be worth laying if of value to do so. Pop Dancer who is usually held up in midfield or at the back of the pack is my 4th top rated just 2lb’s below Glorious Rio in 3rd top spot so either could make the frame. MISS BELLADONNA 8/1 (EW) is my top rated and seems to be an improving 4 year old so could take the rise in class in its stride but the jockeys record of 0-25 for the stable makes me wary else otherwise it might have been my sole bet in this race but STONE OF DESTINY 9/1 (EW) who admittedly hasn't shown much recently is dropped in class to run in this race and the trainer and jockey stats have been good at this course since the change of surface so might have slipped under the radar and will be better value that it ought to be and if a double figure price it will be an each way wager. 

Stone Of Destiny 14/1 4th -2pts 

Miss Belladonna 8/1 6th -2pts 

Lay bet Dalby Forest +1pt

Total -3pts 

SOUTHWELL 4.45 

One of those 0-50 stakes races where they all carry the same weight, there are only 2 runners rated 50 those being The Tron 13/2 and Ubahha 9/1 but I think they are both better suited to a longer distance but they are my 4th and 3rd top rated but I think they might finish a bit too late to catch the leader in this race but could be worth each way bets. Rockley Point 6/1 is one of the two front running types but sits outside my top 4 ratings so may not stay there long enough to win or even make the frame unless allowed an easy lead where it keeps some stamina in reserve for a finishing kick but is shorter in price that I was expecting. Stroxx 9/2 is my 2nd top rated but this horse is becoming frustrating as it has had 37 races, 16 on an All-Weather track, where it has made the frame in 11 of those races but is still a maiden but has been knocking on the door to the winners enclosure recently and I am sure it will break its duck one day but i will be pinning my hopes in this race on MOVEONUP 14/1 (EW) who is the other known front running type in this race so I'm hoping that in this race it can lead all the way for another victory but as always at a double figure price has to be done as an each way wager. 

Moveonup 22/1 Unp -2pts 

Total -2pts 

NEWCASTLE 8.00 

A field of 8 for this dash but there isn't any known front running types in this race which always makes things a lot more difficult to analyse. Kraken Power 13/8 seems better over further and on the Polytrack surface so maybe one to lay especially at such a short price, Kath's Toyboy may also be better over a longer distance so maybe another one to lay but as its my joint 3rd top rated maybe not, Aikido is my other 3rd top rated horse and they are are both just rated 1lb lower than Phoenix Star who sits in 2nd top spot. My top rated is NELLIE FRENCH 16/1 (EW) who can be held up or track the leaders before staying on strongly at the finish and a repeat of its best rating from earlier this month would see it winning this race a shade cosily and at such a generous price it has to be done as a small each way wager. 

Nellie French 16/1 1st +19.2pts

Lay Kraken Power +1pt 

Total 20.2pts

Total on the day +16.2pts

8:00 Southwell Racing Tips (21st February)

SOUTHWELL 8.00 

An eleven runner class six race over the minimum distance where I can see two horses that like to lead, I cannot see anything worthwhile to lay in this race although I have marked down five horses that look to have virtually no chance of winning but I doubt they will be of value to lay. I've got Dark Side Prince and Mehmo as my joint fourth top rated and they are the two that I will expect to set the pace to the race and they are drawn next to each other in stalls one and two so there should be a true gallop, Man On A Mission is my third top rated and this one usually likes to track the leaders before staying on strongly nearing the finish, in second top spot sits Wee Fat Mac who can be held up or track the leaders and could stay on to make the frame but I've got BRANDY STATION 12/1 (EW) rated a little bit higher and this one has been in fairly good form recently and this race wont take much winning, it likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger nearing the finish and from stall five could tuck in behind the leaders waiting to pounce and the apprentice jockeys five pound claim could swing things in this ones favour but it is a poor race so its not a race to be betting very heavily in but I am hoping a small each way punt can pay dividends.

Brandy Station 16/1 3rd +2.2pts

Total on the day +2.2pts

1:40 Southwell Racing Tips (10th February)

SOUTHWELL 1.40 

This 12 runner class 6 dash is very tight on my ratings with just 2lbs between my top 5 ratings and there's 4 known front running types amongst the dozen runners, I don't think Autumn Flight is at good on this Tapeta surface so i will look to lay it in this race. The Tron is my top rated but the apprentice is 0-5 which moves it down to 4th top spot, Yaahobby is my 2nd top rated but the trainer is 0-12 in the last 2 weeks and the jockey has a poorish 9% win ratio for the stable, Wee Fat Mac is my joint 4th top rated but that's using a Wolverhampton speed figure but hasn't any course and distance form to work with so not sure what to expect. Tantastic hasn't been in good form lately so maybe not ready to win this race, I will be putting my faith in MEHMO 9/2 hoping that it can lead all the way.

Mehmo 17/2 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 2.10

Fourteen runners for this class 6 stakes race where they all carry the same weight with the official rating of the top rated is 48 so a poor race but hey ho something has to win but it is hard to work out exactly what. There's 3 known front running types in the race and they are all in my top 4 ratings so a lot of these wont be able to get involved, Stroxx 7/2 is actually my top rated but this one is still a maiden after 21 races and 15 of them have been on an artificial surface and this one could do best of those coming from off the pace but could I back this maiden with any confidence? The answer has to be no. I think the winner will come from the 4 top rated horses, Rockley Point 11/1 and Another Angel 8/1 both have poor jockey stats which is slightly off-putting, I think I really ought to dutch all 4 horses and I will back the 3 mentioned so far for small stakes just in case they do win but I will probably back EMBLA 7/1 as my main bet mainly because the jockey has only had 2 previous rides for the stable and finished 3rd and 1st in those 2 rides so hopefully that points to connections expecting it to win here.

Embla 7/1 7th -1pt 

Total -1pt  

SOUTHWELL 5.25

A full house of 14 for this class 5 sprint where I can see 4 front running types and Rebel Redemption 28/1 is my highest rated of them in 5th top spot on my figures so would need others to falter to win this race but could possibly make the frame and if of value to do so maybe worth a small each way interest, its not a race where I can see anything worthwhile to lay, Mostallim 14/1 and Papa Cocktail 10/1 are my joint 3rd top rated horses where the former likes to track the leaders but always races as though further would suit it better while the latter is usually held up for a late run. I've got Palifico as my 2nd top rated but this one has never won over this distance so may have been flattered when recording its best distance rating, top rated is PORFIN 12/1 (EW) who is a hold up type and i have to admit stall 14 isn't the ideal draw but if it can follow Rebel Redemption in stall 10 across to the rails it might be able to get a good early position from which to attack nearing the finish and if an each way price then all the better.

Porfin 12/1 8th -2pts 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day -4pts