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Monday 14 October 2019

5:25 Wolverhampton (14th October)


POWERFUL DREAM 11/4 has to be considered as a possible winner after winning its last race with a time that would make it my 2nd top-rated on 2019 times its best from 2018 was 5lb higher and would move it to 2nd spot overall. 

RASPBERRY 20/1 this 3-year-old hasn't any form over this distance on this surface but its Newcastle time from this year would make it top on 2019 times and 3rd best overall but it doesn't look like they are expecting it repeat that here. 

BELLEVARDE 20/1 has a reasonable time from 2018 where it stayed on at the finish which would make 4th overall but it's on a losing run of 10 races and isn't fancied here. 

ANGEL FORCE 11/2 is quite versatile when it comes to its racing tactics but hasn't run on the AW before and it's not been in very good form this year and the price looks a bit too short in my opinion and I would look to lay it at the price.

FAIRY FAST 10/1 this 3-year-old is hard to weigh up, it's only got slow time over this c/d but does stay on so maybe further would help, its had 8 runs on the AW tracks without winning but has been placed in 5 of those races so could make an each-way bet here at the price 

PRECIOUS PLUM 5/1 has won over this c/d and has been known to lead before but its slow times don't inspire confidence, it's not shown much timewise since 2016 and at the price I would look to take it on with a lay bet.

COUNTRY ROSE 12/1 is a versatile type and that can include leading but hasn't any form on this surface, I've gone into its turf times and if capable of repeating its best then it could win this race so at the price it may be worth doing each way.

SOCIETY STAR 12/1 this one has also been known to lead before but I'm not sure this surface suits it and has only slow times over c/d so I'm doubting it can/will lead here and not for me in this race.

COMPTON POPPY 12/1 hasn't any recent form on the AW but going back to its best 2018 time it takes the top spot on my figures so it has to be considered as a potential winner so at the price it could be an each-way wager.

AQUADABRA 9/2 has won over this course and distance before but only in a slow run affair so not one I would back in this race especially as its now upped to class 5 races so I would lay it. 

MISS GARGAR 10/1 this one hasn't any course and distance form and tries to stay on at the finish indicating a longer trip might suit it better. 

SUMMARY: I think the winner will come from one of four horses, Powerful Dream, Raspberry, Country Rose and Compton Poppy but which one I'm not completely sure but I think I will be probably dutching all 4 of them in this race which isn't really helpful but I do have my reasoning, RASPBERRY 20/1 is my top-rated for this year so has to be in the mix although it doesn't look very well fancied, POWERFUL DREAM 11/4 is 2nd top on both this year and overall times but the price is a bit short in my opinion, COMPTON POPPY 12/1 is well weighted on its best 2018 which makes it top-rated and has excuses having not run on the AW recently so could be a nice each-way punt, COUNTRY ROSE 12/1 could lead and its best time on turf would see it win comfortably but I can't be confident with it being its first-ever run on the AW surfaces but it could be worth doing each way, too many various alternatives to be confident outside of the 4 selections and my stakes won't be at full strength.

Powerful Dream 11/4 1st + EX £41.90
Compton Poppy 18/1 2nd 
Raspberry 25/1  7th
Country Rose 25/1 9th

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