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Tuesday 15 October 2019

5:00 Kempton Racing Tips (15th October)


HOLDENHURST 7/2 has won over this c/d but only in a slow time and the main reason is this trip might be a bit too short for it and I would look to lay it if of value. i.e a single figure price, which it is. 

SHELLEBEAU 25/1 has run twice over this c/d before but only produced slow times and its recent form is quite poor in its 3 runs this year so I'm not surprised to see it as an outsider. 

ALLISEEISNIBRAS 14/1 hasn't run on this course before and it's one run on the AW was a slow run affair but it does have a good time on turf on good to firm going so could be a danger so maybe worth a small each-way wager at the price.

TRUE BELIEF 11/2 won last time out on g/s ground but is 0-5 on the AW and races as though further might be needed to show its true merit and this surface might not suit it, so I might have a small lay at the price.

ALABAMA DREAMING 6/1 this one hasn't form on this surface and is another that might need further before showing any worthwhile form, I couldn't back or lay this one. 

LORDSBRIDGE BOY 9/2 is 0-4 on the AW tracks and has 2 slow times to its name over this c/d and may find this trip too far in the make-up of this race of maybe worth a small at the price.

GHEPARDO 11/1 hasn't any recent AW form and is 0-8 on the artificial surfaces but is another that may require further to shine but not value to lay.

OLAUDAH 11/2 hasn't any recent course and distance form and its best time doesn't put it in my top 4 ratings but is ideally drawn in stall 1 for a front running sort so another I couldn't back or lay in this race.

PAPA DELTA 7/1 has a fast time from Chelmsford which would make it top rated but its Lingfield time is quite a lot slower, this is its 1st run here so cannot be discarded from my list of potential winners and is maybe just about value for an each-way bet.

CATHEADANS FURY 14/1 also hasn't any course and distance form but has a fastish time from Chelmsford and looking at its trainer/jockey stats this could be a positive move so at the price it has to be an each-way wager.

FLORA TRISTAN 25/1 has had 2 runs here but only produced slow times, comes out joint 3rd top on a Chelmsford time but hasn't been in form so far this year and is an outsider.

THE LACEMAKER 33/1 is the other joint 3rd top-rated again using a Chelmsford time but again it's not been in good form this year and not expected to change that looking at its price. 

SUMMARY: This is a poor race even for a class 6 affair but there is a couple of front runners so it should be a true run race but neither of them is in my top 4 ratings so could set the race up for the finishing types and with one of these front runners being in stall 8 my selection CATHEADAN'S FURY 14/1 coming out of stall 9 could get a good tow into the race and then be in position to have the first attack at the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish.

Catheadan's Fury 25/1 6th 

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