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Monday 18 November 2019

5:15 Southwell Racing Tips (18th November)


MOONRAKER has been known to lead before and on my figures could be thereabouts at the finish but hasn't shown much lately.

FANTASY KEEPER the apprentice jockeys claim puts this one in the picture as well and he does well for this stable. 

FREE LOVE a 3yo who likes to track the leaders and its another that could be near the fore at the finish.

TAWNY SPIRIT hasn't won in 4 attempts on the AW surfaces and should be staying on strongly at the finish and has very good trainer/jockey stats.

CROSSE FIRE is the 2nd of 3 known frontrunners in the race and its best 2018 time would make it my 2nd top overall.

CANFORD BAY hasn't any form on this surface but its turf form might indicate to it taking to this surface and it likes to track the leaders.

AFANDEM is 0-4 on the AW but hasn't any course and distance form to its name but it's another I think will like this surface.

ISLE OF INNISFREE has only 1 AW run to its name and has only a slow time at Chelmsford but I'm thinking it might not take to this surface.

ERISSMUS MAXIMUS is 2nd top-rated on 2019 c/d times and then it's being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice who does well for this stable.

NICK VEDDER would need to improve timewise to win here and it may be better when raced over a longer distance and is likely to be an outsider here.

ENCHANTED LINDA is the 3rd possible pacesetter and has a very positive jockey booking but I have a feeling it might not like this surface.

ANDRE AMAR has won on the AW in Ireland but in a slow run affair, this isn't the trainer's favourite course for having winners.

SAMOVAR has a good time to its name both this year and 2018 but its best has always come in a lower class race than this class 4 affair. 

SUMMARY: What a competitive race and to be honest I've got big red marks (red is positives) against 8 of the runners, and another 3 with smaller red marks and only 2 with green marks (green is negatives). Tawny Spirit hasn't any course form but could be dangerous if taking to this surface and I think it might like it looking at its turf form, my money, a small amount will be riding on ERISSMUS MAXIMUS 8/1 who has a positive jockey booking and this apprentices allowance could be what swings the race into its favour. 

Erissmus Maximus 10/1 Unp  


Not a lot to say about this class 7 dash, Jaganory could possibly set the pace against these unless something else changes it usual racing tactics but I doubt it can stay in front all the way to the line, Bluella is my 3rd top-rated and will be trying to stay on at the end of the race, rated just 1lb higher there's Tadaany who likes to track the leaders but is on a losing run of 15 but it could feasibly make the frame but my top rated is ALBA DEL SOLE 6/1 who can be held up for a late run or track the leaders and I think the trainer has found a decent opportunity for this horse to get back to winning ways but consistency isn't a keyword at this level so my stakes will be kept on the low side.

Alda Del Sol 6/1 6th

* Note: I had this as Sandown rather than Southwell. My mistake, been travelling tot he US and not sure what happened. 

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