SUPER FLORENCE 25/1 has only slow times at this distance and looks to need further to show its true worth and its still a maiden on the AW after 9 previous attempts.
EESHA SAYS 3/1 is a possible pacesetter in this race but I don't know if this surface suits, hence I'm not sure it can lead here but if doing so could possibly make the frame but I would look to lay the win part as it isn't any value at the price.
FAREEQ 4/1 is on a losing run of 10 and has only slow times at this c/d but it should be trying to stay on towards the business end of the race and could feasibly make the frame but again it might be worth laying the win part at the price.
MANSFIELD 8/1 another on a 10 run losing streak also one that will be trying to stay on at the finish of the race but is 0-22 on the AW tracks so not for me and a lay as long as its a single figure price.
GUARDIA SVIZZERA 14/1 is my 2nd top-rated on just 2019 c/d times and another one that races as though a longer trip will suit it better hence its an outsider.
FILBERT STREET 25/1 hasn't any form on this surface from either here or Newcastle but I'm doubting this surface will suit it so one to hopefully lay but not at the price.
MURQAAB 10/1 hasn't any course and distance form and only slow times at this distance at Newcastle but should be staying on at the finish and I would lay it if coming into a single figure price.
AUTUMN SPLENDOUR 16/1 is 0-8 on the AW tracks but it is my top rated on a time recorded in 2019 and the only downside is the losing run of sixteen.
HANATI 16/1 is the only other one to have led before but hasn't been in good form lately but if leading and setting a slowish pace it could do enough to at least make the frame but isn't fancied in the betting.
EDGED OUT 33/1 it's a shame to see this 10yo racing at this poor level and its last win was back in 2017 so I cannot see it winning this race and its the outsider of the whole field.
ILLUSTRIOUS SPIRIT 14/1 hasn't distance form to work with and everything points to it wanting a longer trip and it might get outpaced here.
SUMMARY: I have to admit this is a poor poor race and I've got negatives against 10 of the 11 runners and there's only 3 with recorded times on my figures, Mansfield comes out 2nd top but it is using a time from 2018 and races as though further would suit it better so perhaps not a speed figure to rely on, Guardai Svizzera is 3rd best overall and 2nd best on just 2019 c/d times and this one will also be staying on at the finish, my top-rated overall is AUTUMN SPLENDOUR 16/1 who is on a losing run of 16 and hasn't won in 8 previous AW races but from stall 6 it could get a good tow into the race by the frontrunning opponent in stall 5, I will be backing it each way but my stakes won't be at full strength.
Autumn Splendour 16/1 3rd
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