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Sunday, 16 February 2020

4:30 Kempton Racing Tips & Lay Bets (16th February)


KEMPTON 4.30

I will start off this race saying the 3 lays (Sparkalot + Martineo + The Lamplighter) should ensure an overall profit, which is the bread and butter of every race, finding the winner puts jam on top, it is fairly compact on my speed figures between 7th and 2nd spot and any one of them could make the frame, Prince Of Rome with the apprentices 7lb claim would move to 2nd top spot but the poor jockey stats are a little off-putting, Eljaddaaf has a decent time but from Chelmsford and only slow times over this c/d, Sparkalot is 3rd top on just 2019/20 c/d times and it looks the most likely pacesetter in the race and could do enough to make the frame, Venture is well weighted on its best times but has poor trainer/jockey win stats but could feasibly make the frame, my money will be riding on WILEY POST 9/2 who did win its last race and has been found a good chance to follow up in this race. 

Wiley Post 11/2 2nd 

Lay bets: Sparklatot (+1pt) Martineo (+1pt) The Lamplighter (+1pt)

Total +2pts 

KEMPTON 5.00 

Only 7 runners and 3 of them I will look to lay, (Hey Ho Lets Go + Noble Deed + Black Isle Boy) I'm not sure what to expect from Mykindofsunshine who is still a maiden after 10 races and I'm not sure the jockey booking is a positive move, the topweight Fancy Flyer has only a slow c/d time from its only race here, I still cannot split GRIGGY10/11 and SWISSAL 11/4, the former is my 2nd top-rated and has very good trainer 4-7 and jockey 6-8 stats and won its last race so is in cracking form, the latter is my top rated but the trainers 0-33 record at this course is a negative but the jockey does have a reasonable 17% strike rate for this stable and I will be backing both of them but I do admit there isn't much value in this race.

Swissal 11/4 2nd 
Griggy 10/11 3rd 

Lay bets: Black Isle Boy (-7pts) Hey Ho Let's Go (+1pt) Noble Deed (+1pt) 

Total -7pts

Total on Day -5pts