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Tuesday 18 February 2020

6:00 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (18th February)


There are only 6 runners to analyse. I will look to lay (Jem Scuttle 5/2) I wasnt sure whether to lay this horse or not but I think this 4 year old horse might need a longer trip to show its worth and at the price I certainly dont think its of value) Hellofagame has one fast time to its name, very fast for the class of race but that is beginning to look more and more like a one off and its still a maiden having had 15 runs, the same can be said about Loulin’s best time so I am not 100% sure what level these 2 horses are truly capable of performing to and this one would need to improve timewsue to win this race, Global Humor has only one c/d run to its name and that was a slow time plus its best from elsewhere would still leave it a little bit short of whats required here if others run to their best, the jockey riding Madrinho has a good record for the stable but not on the stables older horses on the AW tracks but is on a losing streak of 22 races, that leaves POETA BRASILEIRO 11/2 who is the only known frontrunning type in this race and this topweight has been running in better company and its two recent runs have been over 7 furlongs and this drop back to 6 furlongs will suit it much better and will be carrying my money in this race. 

Poeta Brasileiro 11/2 6th 

Lay bets: Jem Scuttle (+1pt) 

Total 0pts


Only 7 runners in this race and the bottom 4 in the handicap have all been performing best in lower class races so I would look to lay all 4 of them (Astro Jakk + Moonraker + Samovar + Moveonup) enough to cover my bet stakes on my selection, North Wind hasnt any English form and looking at its Irish form it could take to this surface but I have a feeling it may be better over a longer trip, Lord Biddiford hasnt any c/d form to work while looking at its best time from Chelmsford, a different surface, it would be my top rated but looking at its past history it may need this run for fitness as its last race was 130 days ago, my pennies will be riding on the topweight SAAHEQ 7/2 who likes to track the leaders, five of the seven runners have been known to lead before, and then stay on strongly and this race may be run to suit it and the jockey booking looks a positive move, this will be this trainer's first horse running here in over five years so I think they have found a good opportunity to follow up its win last time.

Saaheq 7/2 7th 

Lay bets: Astro Jakk (-2.5pts) (Moonraker +1pt) Samovar (+1pt) Moveonup (+1pt) 

Total - 0.5pts 

Total on Day - 0.5pts