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Sunday, 31 May 2020

3:20 Newcastle - Eric's Back - Backs & Lay Bets (Monday)

NEWCASTLE 3.20

The first sprint for what seems like bloody ages and I cannot narrow it down to a single horse conclusion but I do think I can narrow it down to a couple. 

I have found four horses that I will be looking to lay and I will put my reasoning for each lay and will try do so in the future as long as I have the time:

(Yousini may need a longer trip to shine- Tenax slow times and poor jockey booking who is 0-25 on the stables older horses - True Blue Moon who looks better over 5 furlongs - I Am A Dreamer could lead if allowed to set its own slower pace but I doubt it will get its own way here) 

I could quite easily have added Lincoln Park to the list who is making its AW debut...

BRIAN THE SNAIL 15/2 recorded the fastest c/d time in 2019 where the going was described as on the slow side of standard but in the make-up of this race stall 2 might not be ideal but I will be backing this one to some degree as it has won before after a break. 

Northgate Lad would have been another to consider as a possible winner if it could recapture its 2018 form but its 2 runs since then have been relatively poor and that's enough to put me off, also stall 1 might not be ideal but this pair being drawn alongside each other could see them both geeing each other along.

The bottom-weight WILD EDRIC 11/1 is a possible pacesetter in this race and I do think those drawn high do sometimes have an advantage so stall 12 could tip things in its favour and just maybe it could lead all the way and at the price might be worth an each-way wager. 

I will be backing both of them to some degree but most likely in favour of my top-rated and relying on the lays to make sure of coming out on top but after the layoff, my stakes will be kept on the low side of things. 

Brian The Snail 15/2 1st 
Wild Edric 11/1 3rd 

Lay bets: Yousini +1pts, Tenax +1pts, True Blue Moon +1pt & I Am A Dreamer +1pt 

Total: 13.25pts 

 

NEWCASTLE 4.30

This looks a decent class 4 dash and another race where I can find a few that I will be looking to lay:

(Puchita looks to want further to show its best - Indian Sounds another that may need further- Quanah maybe better in a lower class race and the jockey is 0-18 for the stable - Queen Of Kalahari who might want further or a slower surface at this distance as its only distance win was on soft ground at Leicester)

If my selection doesn't produce its best here then both Requinto Dawn 10/1 and Gorgeous General 14/1 could be ones that might prosper especially the former who is one of only two known front running types and could be hard to catch if fully tuned up after the break, while the latter has good trainer and jockey stats to back up the chances of this one. 

Fox Hill is the other possible pacesetter and could be a danger from the front but this one would need to improve on what its shown so far as its win at this distance on good to firm going was a fairly slow run affair. 

My main bet in this race will be BE PROUD 9/2 who ran well when finishing second on its last run and hopefully the trainer has kept it fully tuned up for this race and booked jockey does have good stats when riding for this stable so I'm hoping that's a positive omen to its chances.

Be Proud 9/2 5th 

Lay bets: Puchita +1pt, Indian Sounds +1pt, Quanah +1pt & Queen Of Kalahari -10pts

Total: - 8pts 

Total on the day: +5.25pts


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