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Tuesday, 26 May 2020

A LOGICAL LAY THE FAVOURITE SYSTEM

We all know that favourites on average win around 33% of all races - year in and year out. 

So if you laid all favourites you would win in 2 out of every 3 races. 

That is a good starting point, but not really good enough to make it worthwhile following blindly. 

If we concentrate on handicaps only and the percentage of winning favourites drops to about 24%, so now laying these favourites you win 3 out of 4 times. Yes, that is better, but I think we still need to find some improvement. 

We now come to the final stages and a few qualifying rules. We have to use The Racing Post, and in the betting forecast for every handicap race, we look at the forecast price of the favourite. 

If it is 2-1 up to 7-2 we note that favourite down and ignore all the other favourites priced outside that range as they are discarded. 

We now look more closely at the ones noted down, if any. 

First, we look at the RPR. If it is top rated with the black spot, either on its own or jointly, then we ignore it.

If it still qualifies, we now look to see if it is tipped by either Spotlight or Postdata. 

If it is tipped by either one of them then that disqualifies it and it is discarded. 

BINGO if it is not tipped by either, then we have a horse to lay.

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