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Sunday, 7 June 2020

12:30 Chelmsford Backs & Lays Bets (8th June)

CHELMSFORD 12.30 

I'm quite intrigued with 2 runners from the same stable at the bottom of the handicap but both would have to improve to win if others run to their best, there's not a lot of form to some of the runners so my stakes will be kept low, Atalanta's Boy looks very much like a hidden danger having not run on the AW tracks before but if taking to the surface could go well, I will be having a few quid on the proven as usual so will be backing the topweight ALNASHERAT 7/2 its best time was recorded at Lingfield which is very similar to this course so I'm hoping it can reproduce its best here but it does have a long layoff to overcome so stakes will not be at full strength. 

Alnasherat 4/1 Unp (-1pt)

Total -1pt

CHELMSFORD 1.00

This class 6 race is once again dominated by horses with small amounts of data to work with so stakes have to be kept low again, I have found a few to lay (Maid Millie + A Place To Dream + Viking Way + Avenue Of Stars) Good answer is my 4th top-rated while Kath's Lustre moves to 3rd top because of the apprentice jockeys 3lb claim and this horse has good trainer/jockey stats so I expect it will go well, 2nd top spot is Amor Kethley but the jockeys 0-6 for the stable is a bit off-putting, my money will be riding on MONARCH MAID 8/1 who is versatile with its racing tactics and from stall 4 it could gain control of the rails which is always a bonus. 

Monarch Maid 14/1 6th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Maid Millie +1pt, A Place To Dream +1pt, Viking Way +1pt, Avenue Of Stars +1pt

Total: +3pts

CHELMSFORD 4.10

Only 8 runners but still a competitive affair I will start with the 2 to lay (Abel Handy + Bellevarde) both Spirited Guest and Red Stripes are capable of going well under the conditions of this race but the latter isn't drawn well for a frontrunning sort with 4 others that also like to lead, Tone The Barone was in cracking form just before the enforced shutdown of racing but would need to improve again to beat DAPPER MAN 5/1 who is a front running sort and in the make-up of this race stall 4 might be plenty good enough to see it either lead or contest the lead from the off and once getting to the front should be hard to catch. 

Dapper Man 12/1 8th (-1 pt)

Lay bets: Abel Handy +1pt, Bellevarde +1pt

Total +1pt


LINGFIELD 5.50

Down to 6 in this race which surprises me after the shutdown, I will lay (Grisons + Firenze Rosa) the top pair Harrogate and Irene May could both go well being my joint 3rd top-rated horses my 2nd top-rated, King Robert is just one spot higher so there could be a battle for the places but my money will be on SOMETHING LUCKY 11/4 who if capable of reproducing its best time from here in 2019 would win cosily and the jockey booking looks a positive move as he has a 19% win ratio for the stables horses on the AW.

Something Lucky 11/2 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Grisons - 2.25pts, Firenze +1pt 

Total: -2.25pts

Total on the day: +0.75pts

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