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Showing posts with label Dapper Man. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dapper Man. Show all posts

Thursday, 9 March 2023

1:40 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (10th March)

WOLVERHAMPTON 1.40 

A class 6 dash with 11 runners and 3 that like to lead, if Bankrupt 9/1 is a single figure price I will look to lay it mainly because its still a maiden after 13 races 10 of which have been on All-Weather tracks. Secret Slipper is my 2nd top rated using a Southwell rating but has been in poor form lately it could possibly make the frame but I expect it will a double figure price,(its now a non-runner) then it looks like the top 4 in the handicap should have the winner amongst them, there isn't much time wise between Toplight, Autumn Flight and Savalas in 5th to 2nd top positions but the latter pair like to front run so could do best of the trio but if *DAPPER MAN 6/1 from stall 1 gets to the front and gains control of the rails then it should lead all the way and the stable is in form having a 2-6 record for the last 2 weeks. 

*NR 

KEMPTON 6.00 

A field of 9 for this class 4 apprentice jockeys race where 5 of the runners have been known to lead before, Melly's Flyer may prefer the Tapeta surface and would be top rated using its best rating from Southwell but has a time on this surface that would have made it my co-third top rated but the other are being ridden by apprentices that can still claim so I'm not sure I could actually lay this one unless its of really good value to do so, one I will be laying is Satin Snake 9/4 who I think will need a longer distance to show it best form and might stay on too late for victory in this race. Porfin (now a non-runner) and Jupiter Express are my joint 3rd top rated horses in this race, Gobi Sunset 11/1 is my top rated but that is using rating recorded at Wolverhampton last year but hasn't any form over this distance on the Polytrack surface but I'm not convinced this surface is its favoured and will be of interest when back racing on Tapeta. My 2nd top rated and the one I will be hopefully backing in this race is STOCKPYLE 14/1 (EW) who recorded its best time at Chelmsford last year and from the 4 runs its had on an artificial surface its won once and made the frame in 2 other races and if getting to the front it could be hard to peg back and has to be backed each way at the price.

Stockpyle 14/1 7th -2pts 

Lay bet Satin Snake +1pt, Melly's Flyer +1pt 

Total 0pts

Total on the day 0pts

Sunday, 14 August 2022

3:30 Lingfield Racing Tips (15th August)

LINGFIELD 3.30 

Class 5 race with 10 runners over 5 furlongs and 3 known front running types, if Khurumbi is a single figure price I will lay it as I'm not sure this surface will suit it and further might also be better for it, 2 of the possible pacesetters, Howzak and Red Walls, have been in poor form lately, the former could do best of the pair but usually gives an indication when a return to form is imminent Micks Spirit is my 4th top rated just 1lb below Saaheq in 3rd top spot so either or both could make the frame, I will be hoping that WINGS OF A DOVE 7/1 the other possible pacesetter can lead from stall 2 and gain control of the rails and once hitting the front could prove hard to catch. 

Wings Of A Dove 9/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

CATTERICK 4.55 

A 10 runner race over 5 furlongs in a class 6 affair and 4 front running types in the field, Golden Hal and Astapor should ensure the early gallop is a good one although the latter races as though further would suit it better and might be worth laying if of value to do so, Red Allure is my 3rd top rated and likes to track the leaders, I have joint top rated horses, DAPPER MAN 15/2 in stall 5 and KING CRIMSON 4/1 in stall 7 and both are front running types so whichever one wins the battle could be the one to go on for the win but i honestly cannot split them and will be backing them both. 

Dapper Man 15/2 8th -1pt 
King Crimson 11/2 9th -1pt 

Lay bet Astapor +1pt 

Total -1pt 

WINDSOR 5.20 

An 11 runner class 6 race over 5 furlongs with 4 known front running types amongst them, one horse I will be looking to lay is Bernard Speirpoint who seems to be a much better horse when racing over further, if Thegreyvtrain is a single figure price its another I would think about laying as its not running well lately despite being at the front in the early stages of a race and that's in slow run races which I doubt this one will be, We’re Reunited is my 3rd top rated and likes to stay on at the finish and further might suit it better but it could still make the frame here, FORESEEABLE FUTURE 11/4 is one of the likely leaders and being my 2nd top rated it could prove hard to catch if getting to the front and with the apprentice jockeys claim it only misses top spot by 1lb behind SPARKED 15/2 who usually tracks the leaders before staying on strongly at the finish as its so close between the pair of them I will be backing them both. 

Foreseeablefuture 11/4 1st +2.75pts 
Sparked 18/1 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Thegreyvtrain +1pt 

Total +2.75pts

WINDSOR 6.50 

Class 4 race with 9 runners over 5 furlongs with 4 front running types in the field so it should be a true run race, the top weight Treacherous hasn't any form over today's distance but it might get outpaced here before staying on too late nearing the finish but if others falter it could possibly make the frame, any others that could be lays all look likely to be double figure prices and represent poor value, Son And Sannie who is my 4th top rated could do best of those coming from off the pace especially if the top 3 all go off too fast and fade nearing the finish, Coronation Cottage who is my 3rd top rated does its best form and ratings in lower class races so may be outclassed at this level, Just That Lord is my 2nd top rated and recorded its best speed figure over today's course and distance last year while my top rated LA ROCA DEL FUEGO 4/1 also recorded its best rating over this course and distance but it was recorded this year and if getting the fractions right could get back to winning ways in this race and i like the booking of the apprentice jockey who takes 5lb off its weight and has a one win from two rides for the stable.

La Roca Del Fuego 13/2 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -0.25pts

Thursday, 5 May 2022

5:10 Ascot Racing Tips (6th May)

ASCOT 5.10 

I hope all 8 runners take part just in case I can find and each way wager, I will be looking to lay Silver Samurai 10/1 as it may need further and this race might not be run to suit it, I expect the early pace will be set by Mines A Double 9/4 who could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but if its as short priced favourite as forecast then it might be worth laying for the win part as it might do enough to still make the frame, Kimifive 14/1 would make the frame if able to reproduce its best rating from 2020 but hasn't been anywhere near that level since then, Spanish Star and Akkerinka have only 1lb between them and are my 2nd and 3rd top rated on recent ratings so could make the frame but my money will be riding on MANY A STAR 4/1 as long as the going is good to firm and the jockey does well when riding the stables older horses. 

Many A Star 4/1 1st +4pts 

Lay bets: Silver Samari +1pt, Mines A Double +1pt 

Total +6pts

RIPON 6.15 

Just 7 runners with one known front running type amongst them, I think Gullane One 8/1 might need this run for fitness and worth laying if a single figure price, the trainer Paul Midgley has two horses entered in this race where I have James Watt rated higher than Van Gerwin on my unique speed figures but jockey wise the one who does best for the stable is on the the latter so I'm a bit confused what the stable expects to happen, my money will be riding on the sole front runner DAPPER MAN 3/1 who finished third last time out and if allowed an easy lead in this race it should hold on all the way to the line for victory. 

Dapper Man 3/1 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

RIPON 6.45 

Up to 9 runners for this race which means I can look for each way wagers, I will be looking to lay Shallow Hal 13/2 who might prefer some cut in the ground and the apprentice jockey is 0-16 for the stable, I will also look to lay Twilight Secret 5/1 it hasn't any distance form on turf and slow times when racing at this distance on the AW surface at Wolverhampton while Imperium Blue 8/1 may struggle to stay the distance so I could add it to my list of lays, Fortamour and Flying Pursuit are my joint 3rd top rated so could battle to make the frame but I will be backing MARK'S CHOICE 13/2 and MANIGORDO 8/1 both will be trying to stay on strongly at the finish and I have only 1lb between them so either could win the race.

Manigordo 8/1 2nd -1pt 
Mark's Choice 7/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets: Shallow Hal +1pt, Twilight Secret +1pt

Total 0pts

Total on the day +5pts

Tuesday, 26 April 2022

2:00 Pontefract Racing Tips (27th April)

PONTEFRACT 2.00 

A 6 runner race with two known front runners amongst them, King Of Tonga 10/3 may need further to shine and Red Walls 9/2 might prefer some cut in the ground so I will look to lay both of them if of value, I've only got 1lb between Birkenhead 13/2 and a possible pacesetter in High Security 11/2 although I think its doubtful it will be able to lead in this race, Lost My Sock 7/1 is my 2nd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish but my top rated is the front running DAPPER MAN 3/1 who is more than capable of leading all the way in this race its trainer has a reasonable strike rate at this course and its run 6 days ago will have got it primed to win this race. 

Dapper Man 8/1 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets King Of Tonga -1pt, Red Walls +1pt 

Total -1pt 

ASCOT 5.10 

A class 4 dash over the minimum trip but I can only see Araifjan 9/1 as the possible pacesetter but I doubt it can lead all the way and may struggle to even make the frame but never say never, even though it won last time out in a slow time on the AW, Mulzim 9/2 may prefer a longer trip and the make-up of this race might not help it so it could be worth laying, Full Authority 8/1, Mohareb 25/1 and Phoenix Star 9/1 also may need further to show their best, Celsius 8/1 comes out 3rd best on my figures so could make the frame, Pettochside 10/1 ran well last time out when finishing 3rd in a slightly higher class race but may have been flattered in that race but could make the frame again if in the right mood but it is a 13yo who seems on a downward spiral, my money will be invested on HAN SOLO BERGER 9/2 who can be held up or track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish. 

Hans Solo Berger 14/1 9th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

MUSSELBURGH 7.25

I cannot see a natural front runner in this race but Angel Eyes 20/1 has led before when nothing else wants to but its still a maiden after 37 runs so not for me and the bookies agree, Orchid Rose has a time from Ripon last year that is now beginning to look like a bit of a fluke rating where it got towed along in a fast run affair, the betting will decide if I lay anything in this race but, Stronsay 10/1, Stroxx 10/1, Lord Of The Glen 8/1 and Gorgeous Gabolina 14/1 are ones to consider looking at the early tissue prices but need to be a single figure price near the off time, I've got joint top rated horses in Koropick who has only won once from 20 runs on grass while the trainer is 0-13 at this course and the jockey is 0-2 for the stable so I will be backing the other top rated horse MOKAMAN 8/1 who’s trainer has a 26% win ratio at this course and the jockey has a 17% win ratio for the stable with the only downside being that the trainer hasn't had a winner in the last 41 days from 27 runners which will temper the strength of my bet.

Mokaman 8/1 1st +8pts 

Lay bets Stronsay +1pt,  Stroxx +1pt 

Total +10pts

Total on the day +8pts

Tuesday, 21 September 2021

2:17 Goodwood Racing Tips (22nd September)

GOODWOOD 2.17 

An eight runner race and I hope all of them take part so there is 3 places up for grabs so I can have an each way bet, nothing is what I would call a natural front running sort in this race but Lockdown has done it before and might be the one to set the pace in this race and as its my 3rd top rated on just 2021 times it could do enough from the front to make the frame but I doubt it will be an each way price, Some Nightmare has the 3rd best speed figure on my overall figures but that was recorded in a lower class race than today's so might get outpaced in this race, Gilt Edge usually runs its race when it has its ideal conditions but is only 4th best on my figures but could make the frame if others falter, Gunmetal is my 2nd top rated but the trainer is 0-4 in the last 2 weeks and the jockey is 0-8 for the stable so my each way money will be riding on THEOTHERSIDE 9/1 (EW) who’s trainer is in decent form with 7 winners in the last 2 weeks and being drawn next door to the likely leader it could get a good tow into the race and then stay on the stronger. 

Theotherside 9/1 4th -2pts 

Total -2pts

REDCAR 3.45 

This is the 1st division of this race and isn't too bad for a class 6 race but the 2nd division is dire and very little data to work with so I will leave the 2nd division alone, there's 3 known pacesetters in this race and it might well be won from the front, I will look to lay Secret Equity which is a bit of a gamble laying a 3yo but its time when it finished 2nd last time was a relatively slow run affair and I don't think this race will be run to suit it but with 3yo’s they are able to still improve but as its a maiden after 9 races i will take the risk, Muatadel, Dirchill and Zamjar have times that could see them go well and with a couple of negatives against their names it might well be Zamjar who does best of the trio but i will be siding with SHE'S A DIVA 9/2 who is a front running type and on the clock has the beating of the other 2 possible pacesetters and once getting to the front it ought to be hard to catch. 

She's A Diva 5/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt

REDCAR 4.53 

As to be expected there is 5 front running types in this 5 furlong dash, I can see a few to lay but I'm doubting they will be single figure prices but I will update if something comes to mind when I see the betting, Albegone will be to the fore in the betting but this is a step up in class and is only 5th best on my speed figures,I've got joint 3rd top rated with Koropick and Street Life so they could make the frame, my 2nd top rated is Debawtry but the trainer is 0-4 in the last 2 weeks and will be trying to stay on at the finish but I'm hoping my top rated DAPPER MAN 18/1 who could set the pace and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and the switch of jockey for this race makes me think connections are expecting it to go well here and at the price it has to be given as an each way wager. 

Dapper Man 18/1 8th -2pts 

Total -2pts

GOODWOOD 4.35 

A nice looking class 4 race with a couple of known front runners which always helps to work out how fast the early pace will be which can help identify a weak horse in the race prime material to lay which will be a shorter price than its actual chance of winning and in this instance that might be Glamorous Breeze 9/2 who in this instance might be outclassed at this level and might find things happening a little bit too quickly even though its speed figure makes it my top rated on just 2021 times and 3rd top overall but then when you multiply its speed figure by its official handicap mark it drops out of my top 4 so I will look to lay it, Just That Lord could go very well if getting to the front being my 3rd top rated but it think it will be set up for a finishing type, Saaheq comes out 2nd top rated but i will be placing my faith and money on ROSE HIP 7/2 who usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish.

Rose Hip 4/1 4th -1pt

Lay bet: Glamorous Breeze +1pt

Total 0pt 

Total on the day -5pts

Monday, 6 September 2021

4:10 Catterick Racing Tips (7th September)

CATTERICK 4.10

MILITIA a possible pacesetter but would need to improve time wise to win this race and the trainers win ratio is only 8% at this course. 

BUY ME BACK the jockey is 0-4 and the trainers strike-rate with their older runners is a poor 5% and has had 1 winner from 19 runners in the last 2 weeks.

MACHREE has poorish trainer/jockey stats and the trainer is also 0-17 for the last 2 weeks while puts me off its chances.

ASTROZONE has poor trainer stats and its best time from the last 2 years leaves it well short of whats needed to win this class 4 race. 

DAPPER MAN a possible pacesetter and my top rated on just 2021 times at this level and its best speed figure from Hamilton makes it my top rated on my overall figures. 

DARK SHOT has been known to lead but hasn't done so lately but its best time from 2020 at Leicester would make it my 2nd top rated but it could struggle to lead here which could hamper its chance of winning. 

SPANISH ANGEL has poorish jockey stats and time wise would need to improve to win this race but could go well if able to reproduce its best 2020 speed figure.

THRILLA IN MANILLA has poorish trainer/jockey stats but it is capable of making the frame if running to its best speed figure rating. 

ECONOMIC CRISIS the trainer is 1-63 at this course and the jockey 0-17 for the stable and maybe doesn't like good to firm ground.

AUCKLAND LODGE this one might be outclassed at this level but is capable of recording a fast time in the right grade.

SUMMARY: With 6 of the 10 runners having been known to lead I think this race should be won from the front as long as they don't go off too fast from the off, I am going to side with DAPPER MAN 4/1 who admittedly hasn't the best of the draw in stall 8 but it ought to be away fast enough to lead or at least gain a good early prominent position and then a reproduction of its best Hamilton time would see it get back to winning ways here. 

Dapper Man 9/1 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt

WINDSOR 4.15 

There's 7 runners in this race with 2 horses known as front running types and they are my 4th top rated, Anjella and my 2nd top rated Hello Me so maybe the rest of the field may struggle to get involved, Sarah's Verse is my 3rd top rated and this one is a hold up type but I will be putting my money on the top weight SECOND COLLECTION 10/3 who is another hold up type and it likes a fast pace to aim at so this race should be run to suit it, the trainer has had 6 winners in the last 2 weeks so is in good form and could add to his total here. 

Second Collection 9/2 2nd -1pt

Total -1pt 

WINDSOR 5.15 

Just 5 runners but luckily 2 of them have been known to lead before so the early pace could be set by either/or Pop Dancer and Just That Lord and the pair of them are only separated by 1lb on my figures and Pettochside is rated just 1lb higher but none of them are in my top 2 ratings, ROSE HIP 3/1 is my 2nd top rated on just 2021 times but has a time from last year that moves it to top spot so has to be backed in case it can repeat last years best time but I will also be backing AUTUMN FLIGHT 5/4 who is top rated on just this years times and the trainer has a decent 15% win ratio at this course.

Rose Hip 3/1 2nd -1pt 
Autumn Flight 7/4 3rd -1pt 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day -4pts

Sunday, 6 June 2021

3:15 Lingfield Racing Tips (7th June)

LINGFIELD 3.15 

Only 7 runners but luckily there is a known front runner in Spurofthemoment who is my 2nd top rated on 2020/21 times and also 2nd top on overall figures so could go well from the front and if allowed an easy lead it could even win the race and it has good trainer/jockey stats, I will look to lay Kingholm 7/2 who maybe better over a shorter trip and also may not, Recall The Show is my top rated on just 2021 times and that's good enough for 3rd top spot overall but I will be siding with STRONG POWER 15/2 who is my 2nd top rated on just 2021 times but its best time from 2020 recorded at Leicester and the trainer is 5-9 with runners at this course. 

Strong Power 15/2 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt

LINGFIELD 4.45

I will look to lay both Aleef 13/2 and Shecandoo 5/2 in this race as both look as though further would suit them better and also have poor trainer stats and the former also has poor jockey stats, Katherine Place is my 2nd top rated on a time from 2020 over this c/d but its changed trainer since then and this trainer is 0-14 here and also has poor jockey stats of 1-24, Tilsworth Rose is versatile when it comes to its racing tactics and is my 3rd top rated on overall figures but its another one with poor trainer/jockey stats, my money will be riding on HAVEONEYERSELF 9/2 who is my top rated on its best 2020 time and the jockey is 1-3 for the stable and is also the natural front runner in the race so I'm hoping it can lead from start to finish in this race. 

Haveoneyeself 11/2 7th -1pt

Total -1pt

PONTEFRACT 6.15 

I cannot find anything to lay that I think will be a single figure price and the bottom 6 in the handicap all look a bit outclassed in this race, there is 3 possible front runners but both Marve and Gullane One would need to improve on the clock to win this race, Mr Orange is my 3rd top rated and this one is usually held up for a late run, Final Frontiere sits in 2nd top spot and can be held up or track the leaders but I am hoping that my top rated MR WAGYU 4/1 can lead here and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch. 

Mr Wagyu 4/1 1st +4pts (Betfair SP -) 

Total +4pts

WINDSOR 6.30 

This is a tricky looking class 3 race with a few who I am not really sure what to expect from them but i have positive marks against 4 of the runners names but only A Sure Welcome 9/2 with a negative and one I will look to lay this one at that price, Diligent Lady could be the pacesetter here and could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead and does come out 3rd top on my figures, the top weight Yimou is my 4th top rated with Thegreatestshowman sitting in 2nd top spot on my figures but my money will be riding on *SPOOF 5/1 who obviously is my top rated and has good trainer/jockey stats so I'm expecting it to go well in this race. 

*NR

PONTEFRACT 7.15 

A slightly strange race where one set of times from just one race dominates my speed figures, i will look to lay Obee Jo 9/2 who may need further to show its best form and Arnold 8/1 who hasn't won on turf since 2018 as they both look shorter in price than they should be so value to lay, Auckland Lodge is a possible pacesetter along with one other but would need to improve time wise to win this race, Young Tiger is my 3rd top rated using a time from 2020 at Doncaster but I have DAPPER MAN 8/1 as my 2nd top rated and it won comfortably when it had CANFORD JOY 12/1 behind it but the latter is weighted to reverse the form here but with the former being the other known front runner and could win again if allowed an easy lead but as I said the figures look a little bit strange so I will keep my stakes low.

Canford Joy 25/1 6th -1pt  
Dapper Man 7/1 8th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day: 0pts

Wednesday, 21 April 2021

2:10 Beverley Racing Tips (22nd April)

BEVERLEY 2.10 

A decent class 5 dash (5 furlongs) with 11 runners and to make it that much more difficult there is a known front runner in the field, Nibras Again 4/1 has a time from 2019 that would see it competing to make the frame but last years best was quite a bit below that level time wise and looks poor value on recent times, Ventura Flame 16/1 recorded a time at Musselburgh this year but I think it might have got towed along in a fast run race and the form might be questionable, which is reflected in the price, Debawtry 9/1 my joint 3rd top rated on overall figures has that time from 2019 that would put it in the mix but hasn't shown much since but admittedly from very little racing and I think its better when raced over further, Star Prize 12/1 is 2nd top rated on recent, 2020/21, times but drops to joint 3rd on overall figures, I tipped up DAPPER MAN 7/2 on Monday when it finished 2nd at Pontefract after winning impressively the time before that at Ripon, it is the only known front runner in the field and could lead all the way here and a repeat of its time from Ripon would see it back to winning ways. 

DAPPER MAN 1PW 7/2 4th -1pt

Total -1pt 

CHELMSFORD 6.15 

Only 6 runners where Breath Of Joy 4/1 can lead if nothing else wants to but is versatile with its racing tactics and comes out 2nd best on my figures using its best time from Kempton in 2020 so could go well, Mountain Brave is the more natural front running type but seems to want to set a slower pace and its overall times have been poor, Raaeb 2/1 comes out 3rd best on my figures but that's using a Newcastle time, which is a different surface, but hasn't raced here before meaning it will have to improve for the switch to this course to win this race but that doesn't mean it cant improve but as usual I will stick with the proven and I certainly couldn't back it at the price, Corinthia Knight 8/1 has only slow recent times to its name even when it won while Punchbowl Flyer 8/1 might prefer a slower surface which leaves me with the one i will be backing, SHIMMERING DAWN 2/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and if able to reproduce its best time from 2020 over this c/d it would see it winning a shade cosily. 

SHIMMERING DAWN 3PW 2/1 5th -1pt

Total on the day -2pts

Sunday, 18 April 2021

1:30 Pontefract Racing Tips (19th April)

PONTEFRACT 
1.30 

Not a great days racing for me, either small fields or very little data to work with makes it a day to keep stakes low:- Only 6 runners in this 1st race but luckily 2 of them have been known to lead before and i think that Caspian Prince may do best of the pair being my 2nd top rated, there isn't much between the other four runners in the race except for INDIAN SOUNDS 7/1 who usually lies to track the leaders and then stay on resolutely nearing the finish and is 3lbs higher in my ratings so should catch the leader very close to the finish. 

Indian Sounds 7/1 1PW 5th -1pt
Venturous 11/4 1PL +1pt

Total 0pts

WINDSOR 2.10 

There's four runners that have been known to lead in this race with just 6 runners and my top 3 ratings are all possible pacesetters, I have got Outrage and Kick On Kick On as my joint 2nd top rated but I have got Union Rose rated 5lbs higher on a rating from last year but its time from this year was quite a bit lower so I am not quite sure what to expect. 

PONTEFRACT 3.00 

I don't expect DAPPER MAN 8/11 will be much of a price but it is my top rated and the only known front runner in the race and its time recorded at Ripon would see it winning the race a little cosily, looking for a forecast I would side with the top weight Mutabaahy 5/1 who comes out 2nd best on my figures and does usually run on at the business end of its races but it is 2nd in the betting so even the forecast isn't going to pay much. 

Dapper Man 8/11 3PW 2nd -3pts

Total -3pts

WINDSOR 3.40 Div I 

This is a poor poor race split into 2 divisions and the 2nd division is too bad to find anything worthwhile, in this division I have got very little to work with speed figure wise, I have found one in this 1st division that has a time from last year at Yarmouth which is good for a class 6 handicap so if, DELEGATE THE LADY 10/1 (EW) reproduces its best it could run well here and I'm hoping it will be worth a small each way punt. 

Delegate The Lady 10/1 1/2PEW 6th -1pt

Total on the day -4pts

Wednesday, 14 April 2021

3:00 Newmarket Racing Tips (15th April)

NEWMARKET 3.00 

A group 3 race with 7 runners and to be honest on paper it looks like a one horse race in the shape of OXTED 8/11 and I expect it to be an odds on shot and if running to its best should win nicely, so I started looking at the forecast and I would think Emparaaty Ana 9/1 who is my 3rd top rated will set the pace to the race and could pinch enough to hold on for 2nd spot, the other one possibly for the forecast is Summerghand 7/1 who comes out 2nd best on my figures so in theory it should also catch the leader, the tissue betting says the 3 horses mentioned will be the first 3 in the betting so it will depend on the day if there's any value in having a forecast but Oxted might be worth adding to a multiple bet. 

Oxted/Summerghand 1 Point Straight Forecast -1pt
Oxted/Emaraaty Ana 1 Point Straight Forecast -1pt

Total -2pts

RIPON 3.25 

A field of 14 in this race and there's 2 possibly 3 that could set the pace to the race but all 3 of them, Mid Winster, Spartan Fighter and Marks Choice would need to improve time wise to win this race, so what is going to pick them up, Round The Island has a good speed figure but it comes from lower class races to this one, I've got 3 I could lay, Mid Winster, Klopp Of The Kop and Mutanaaseq if they are single figure prices, Dark Defender my 2nd top rated doesn't want it to be too firm but it has won after a break before so it could be fit enough to do itself justice but i had to go back to 2018 to find this ones best time and since then its been running a stone below its best, I will be pinning my hopes on FOX HILL 12/1 who is my top rated using time from this year when it finished 7th in a fast run affair but this one has a time 7lb faster from 2020 so a repeat of either this years or last years time would see it back to winning ways but at the price I would think an each way wager is the way to go. 

Fox Hill 12/1 ½ Point Each Way 7th -2pts
Mid Winster 4/1 2 Points Lay +2pts
Mutannaseq 9/2 1 Point Lay +1pt
Klopp Of The Kop 9/1 1 Point Lay +1pt

Total +2pts

RIPON 5.40 

Another 7 runner race while this one has 3 possible pacesetters but its for apprentice jockeys only, Afandem would need to improve time wise to win this from the front and seems better with some cut in the ground so might not be able to go the early pace in this race, Abate has a fast enough time from 2019 to make it my 2nd top rated but its speed figure during 2020 was way way below that level and during the last 5 years the trainer is 0-10 in apprentice races which doesn't bode well, Canford Bay is another that has a good time from 2019 but wasn't near that level during 2020, Mutabaahy comes out 3rd best on my overall figures and it was recorded in 2020 and won last time out on the AW, my money will be riding on DAPPER MAN 4/1 who comes out 2nd top on 2020/21 times but if this one can reproduce its best from 2019 it would get back to winning ways and the trainer has a good 18% win ratio in older horse apprentice races so i am hoping that means they expect it to go well here and I am hoping this is the one that can lead all the way. 

Dapper Man 4/1 1 Point Win 1st +4pts (Betfair SP 4.1)
Afandem 9/4 2 Points Lay +2pts

Total +6pts

Total on the day +6pts 

Tuesday, 29 September 2020

2:55 Nottingham Racing Tips & Lay Bets (30th September)


NOTTINGHAM 2.55 

A big field of 17 runners with a couple of known front runners plus another that would lead if nothing else wanted to so it should be a true run race, the 2 at the bottom of the handicap may be outclassed here so i would lay both (*Production + Case Key) if in single figure prices, of the front runners maybe Belated Breath will do best and could possibly hang on for a place if getting an easy lead, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses in Mokaatil who recorded its best last year while One Night Stand recorded its best time this year at Windsor but my money will be riding, as usual, on my top rated horse BIMBLE 3/1 this progressive 3yo recorded its best time this year at Goodwood and a repeat of that time would see it back into the winners circle. 

*NR 

Bimble 3/1 4th (-1pt) 

Lay bets: Case Key +1pt

Total: 0pts 

NOTTINGHAM 4.05

This is a very hard race to analyse to a conclusion, i would look to lay (Commander Han + The Defiant) the former may need a longer trip and the latter maybe outclassed in this class 5 race, theres 5 horses that have been known to lead before so it should be a fast and furious dash, Nibras Again comes out 3rd top on overall times so could be in the mix, Moonraker is top rated on just 2020 times over this distance so must be considered, Dapper Man is a possible pacesetter and has a fast time from 2019 which could make it hard to catch but its form so far this year has been way below that level, Shoot To Kill is a 3yo that comes out 2nd top rated on just 2020 times but only 4th top overall but recent form is probably more relevant, i will go with dutching SHOOT TO KILL 11/2, DAPPER MAN 5/1 and MOONRAKER 16/1 but even then my stakes wont be at full strength.

Dapper Man 5/1 2nd (-1pt)
Moonraker 66/1 Unp (-1pt)
Shoot To Kil 11/2 Unp  (-1pt)

Lay bets: Commander Han +1pt, The Defiant +1pt

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: -1pt 

Monday, 21 September 2020

2:40 Beverley Racing Tips & Lay Bets (22nd September)


BEVERLEY 2.40 

Only 6 runners for this class 2 conditions race worth over 12k to the winner, you would expect more entries, I would lay (Aljaady 7/4 who might need further on g/f ground) the pace will be set by Caspian Prince and/or Ornate and they are my 3rd and 3nd top rated horses but I'm hoping ORVAR 12/1 can track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish 

Orvar 12/1 2nd (-1pt) 

Lay bet: Aljaady 11/10 - (1.1pts) Betfair SP 2.28)

Total: - 2.1pts  

BEVERLEY 3.15 

A big field of 17 and a couple i will look to lay are (Gamesome 9/1 + Royal Brave 5/1) the former may want further and the latter hasn't shown much timewise since 2018, there's a few with pieces of form/times that could put them in the mix, Burtonwood, Atyaaf and Hello Girl but my money will be riding on DAPPER MAN 8/1 who I'm hoping can get to the front early doors and then prove hard to catch and can hopefully lead all the way. 

Dapper Man 8/1 Unp (-2pts) 

Lay bets: Gamesome +1pt, Royal Brave +1pt

Total: -4pts

LINGFIELD 4.15 

As usual I will start with those I will hope to lay (Thrilla In Manila + Zulu Zander + Champagne Supanova) there's a few that could run well in this race, Cappananty Con, Green Door, Brenner Pass, Equipped and Shining all have the odd piece of good/form times and could battle to make the frame but once again i will be backing the horse that has a good chance to lead all the way and that's the 3yo AUTUMN TRAIL 5/1 who in the make-up of this race could gain control of the rails from stall 6 and if leading should prove hard to catch.

Autumn Trail 5/1 8th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Thrilla In Manila +1pt, Zulu Zander +1pt, Champagne Supanova +1pt

Tota: +2pts 

Total on the day: -4.1pts

Tuesday, 15 September 2020

2:00 Yarmouth Racing Tips & Lay Bets (16th September)


YARMOUTH 2.00 

I will start of with a couple I will l ook to lay (Inevitable Outcome + Superiority) a couple of 3yo’s who would need to improve to win this race but the former may prefer some cut in the going and the latter as this trip might be too far, my 3rd top rated is Queen Of Burgundy who likes to track the leaders, my 2nd top rated, LETHAL ANGEL 12/1 can be held up or track the leaders it has good trainer/jockey stats which point to it running a big race here, my top rated is *CAMACHESS 9/2 who likes to track the leaders before staying on resolutely the only problem with this race is I don't know who will set the pace so stakes will be kept on the low side. 

Lethal Angel 12/1 2nd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Inevitable Outcome 9/1 1st (Betfair SP - 11.2), Superiority +1pt

Total: -8.2pts

YARMOUTH 3.45

Only 5 runners I still cannot narrow it down to a single selection, Leodis Dream is relatively quite slow on my speed figures but I expect it will be the outsider, the top 2, Blue de Vega and/or Caspian Prince will set the pace but I think they will set up the race for either TEXTING 13/2 or DACHAS 6/1 who both like to finish strongly at the business end of the race, they both have good trainer stats so I'm not sure which one will prevail so it has to be 2 bets in this race. 

Texting 13/2 2nd (-1pt)
Dachas 13/2 4th (-1pt)

Total: -2pts

BEVERLEY 4.35

In this sprint I can find 4 horses to lay but I think all 4 will be big prices and represent very little value if any value at all, Musharrif could go well here if able to reproduce its best 2018 time and its best since then has been at least 10lbs below standard, there's a few that could go well Line Of Reason, Mythmaker, Athollblair Boy and Nibras Again, I will go with backing 2 horses in this race to cover the angles firstly DAPPER MAN 12/1 who could try to lead all the way here and is joint 2nd top on just 2020 times but top rated if using its Hamilton time from 2019, secondly my top rated on just 2020 times is INDIAN SOUNDS 11/2 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish.

Indian Sounds 11/2 1st (+5.5pts) Betfair SP 3.81)
Dapper Man 12/1 5th (-1pt)

Total: +4.5pts

Total on the day: -5.7pts




Friday, 11 September 2020

4:35 Musselburgh Racing Tip (12th September)


MUSSELBURGH 4.35

I will look to lay (Amazing Alba 10/3 + Economic Crisis 15/2) its a race where will have to be aware of the angles with front running and a finishing types, Choosey, Lyons Cane, Royal Brave, Major Pusey and Northern Society all have pieces of data that could see them battling to make the frame but consistency isn't a keyword among them, my main bet will be on DAPPER MAN 5/1 who has the highest speed figure for this year on my own ratings and if getting to the front I think it will be hard to catch but the top weight Longroom has a time from 2018 that would put it 4 spots ahead of the next best but its best from this year is 5 spots lower and this one likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and might be worth betting if an each way price.

Dapper Man 5/1 7th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Economic Crisis Betfair 7.71 (-7.71pts), Amazing Alba +1pt

Total on the day: -7.71pts

Tuesday, 25 August 2020

3:00 Musselburgh Racing Tips (26th August)


MUSSELBURGH 3.00 

WITH ALL THE RAIN FORECAST JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE I AM EXPECTING THE GOING TO CHANGE SO PLEASE CHECK THE GOING BEFORE BETTING. NO BET SOFT GROUND.

This is quite a dire race and made even worse by the fact there's no known front runners in the race, so any stakes have to be kept low. There's only 6 of the field with recorded speed figures so they could all go well, Northern Society, Newgate Angel, One One Seven and Rangefield Express could battle to make the frame, my top rated on just 2020 times and 2nd best overall is *HELLO GIRL 15/2 but the jockeys 0-28 on this stables older horses is quite off-putting while my top rated overall horse QAARAAT 8/1 doesn't win as often as it should and ran very poorly last time out. 

*NR 

Not bet - soft ground 

MUSSELBURGH 3.30 

A mad dash where half of the 14 runners have been known to lead before so they could well go off too fast and fade nearing the finish so i will go with backing 2 in the race to cover both angles, the horse i will back hoping it can lead or contest the lead from the off is DAPPER MAN 10/1 and this one has good trainer/jockey stats with their older horses, my other selection is DREAM HOUSE 9/1 who won in a fast time last time out at Catterick and this is a step up in class but as its only a 4 year old i think it could well be up to the task and maybe worth 2 each way bets if the going is OK.

No bet - soft ground 

Monday, 3 August 2020

2:15 Catterick Racing Tips & Lay Bets (4th August)


CATTERICK 2.15

I think its a shame there's only 7 runners but hey ho there's nothing I can do about it, I would look to lay (Fox Hill + Mutabaahy + Jill Rose) Red Pike comes out 3rd top on it best 2019 time, Longroom likes to track the leaders and comes out 2nd top overall but I am hoping DAPPER MAN 14/1 can lead in this race and if getting to the front and reproducing its best Newmarket time from 2019 would have a few spots in hand and win cosily, I would love to put this up as an each-way bet but cannot with only 2 places up for grabs. 

Dapper Man 14/1 5th (-2pts)

Lay bets: Fox Hill +1pt, Mutabaahy +1pt, Jill Rose 0pt

BEVERLEY 2.30 

This is a race I would normally leave well alone, its a very poor class 6 affair with a lot of either 3yo’s or lightly races horses but the topweight QAARAAT 8/1 has become well handicapped recently and in this race, it's carrying the topweight against inferior horses and looks to have been found a good opportunity to get back to winning ways and the price is a little more than I was expecting. 

Qaaraat 8/1 5th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

CATTERICK 3.15 

A race where there's quite a few lightly raced sorts so my stakes won't be at full tilt maybe it's not really a race to be betting in and it's only after looking at the tissue prices have I decided to write up this race, Carlovian and Indian Pursuit should make sure there's a good early pace and either could do enough to make the frame, B Fifty Two could go well but doesn't like really fast going, the one to catch my eye is, of course, top-rated who is well weighted on its best tie from Doncaster last year but this one does want genuine good to firm ground to show its best so if the going is ideal I will back LUCKY BEGGAR 7/1. 

Lucky Beggar 11/1 8th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

LINGFIELD 6.15

I love my AW racing but this is a dire affair, of the 11 runners I could probably lay 7 of them and maybe the 3yo bottom-weight maybe should be added to the list, Bernies Boy is my 3rd top-rated but that's using a 2018 time and looks to be on a downward spiral but could get placed here as the race is that bad, Cappananty Con is 2nd top-rated on 2020 times and could go well but I will be backing TOMSHALFBROTHER 10/3 who is the top rate on this year's speed figures and the trainer has a 27% win ratio with their older horses on this course.

Tomshalfbrother 10/3 6th (-1pt)

Total -1pt 

Total on the day: -3pts 

Sunday, 7 June 2020

12:30 Chelmsford Backs & Lays Bets (8th June)


CHELMSFORD 12.30 

I'm quite intrigued with 2 runners from the same stable at the bottom of the handicap but both would have to improve to win if others run to their best, there's not a lot of form to some of the runners so my stakes will be kept low, Atalanta's Boy looks very much like a hidden danger having not run on the AW tracks before but if taking to the surface could go well, I will be having a few quid on the proven as usual so will be backing the topweight ALNASHERAT 7/2 its best time was recorded at Lingfield which is very similar to this course so I'm hoping it can reproduce its best here but it does have a long layoff to overcome so stakes will not be at full strength. 

Alnasherat 4/1 Unp (-1pt)

Total -1pt

CHELMSFORD 1.00

This class 6 race is once again dominated by horses with small amounts of data to work with so stakes have to be kept low again, I have found a few to lay (Maid Millie + A Place To Dream + Viking Way + Avenue Of Stars) Good answer is my 4th top-rated while Kath's Lustre moves to 3rd top because of the apprentice jockeys 3lb claim and this horse has good trainer/jockey stats so I expect it will go well, 2nd top spot is Amor Kethley but the jockeys 0-6 for the stable is a bit off-putting, my money will be riding on MONARCH MAID 8/1 who is versatile with its racing tactics and from stall 4 it could gain control of the rails which is always a bonus. 

Monarch Maid 14/1 6th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Maid Millie +1pt, A Place To Dream +1pt, Viking Way +1pt, Avenue Of Stars +1pt

Total: +3pts

CHELMSFORD 4.10

Only 8 runners but still a competitive affair I will start with the 2 to lay (Abel Handy + Bellevarde) both Spirited Guest and Red Stripes are capable of going well under the conditions of this race but the latter isn't drawn well for a frontrunning sort with 4 others that also like to lead, Tone The Barone was in cracking form just before the enforced shutdown of racing but would need to improve again to beat DAPPER MAN 5/1 who is a front running sort and in the make-up of this race stall 4 might be plenty good enough to see it either lead or contest the lead from the off and once getting to the front should be hard to catch. 

Dapper Man 12/1 8th (-1 pt)

Lay bets: Abel Handy +1pt, Bellevarde +1pt

Total +1pt


LINGFIELD 5.50

Down to 6 in this race which surprises me after the shutdown, I will lay (Grisons + Firenze Rosa) the top pair Harrogate and Irene May could both go well being my joint 3rd top-rated horses my 2nd top-rated, King Robert is just one spot higher so there could be a battle for the places but my money will be on SOMETHING LUCKY 11/4 who if capable of reproducing its best time from here in 2019 would win cosily and the jockey booking looks a positive move as he has a 19% win ratio for the stables horses on the AW.

Something Lucky 11/2 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Grisons - 2.25pts, Firenze +1pt 

Total: -2.25pts

Total on the day: +0.75pts

Wednesday, 28 August 2019

2:40 Musselburgh Racing Tips (28th August)


MUSSELBURGH 2.40 (7.6)

A hard race for my 1st sprint of the day and I will concentrate on my top 4 ratings, I've got DAPPER MAN 13/2 a possible pacesetter who has good trainer stats but the jockey who has been doing well for this stable is riding something else and the replacement jockey has a poor 0-13 record but it could be a ploy to throw people off the scent and the other front runner is *SUPER JULIUS 9/2 who is being ridden by that jockey and he has a good 27% win rate for this stable, now to the 2 that should be staying on at the finish if they are on a going day, EAST STREET REVUE 16/1 is top rated overall using its best Ripon time from 2018 but below that level so far this year hence the big price, the other staying on type is DIAMONIQUE 7/1 a 3 year old who did its best time this year at Ripon...im hoping I can dutch all 4 to make a profit but maybe tilted in favour of the 2 front running types as it looks to me as though they have plans afoot and im not completely sure which one will be the more fancied horse in this race.

East Street Revue 16/1 2nd 
Dapper Man 13/2 4th 
Diamonique 10/1 Unp
*NR 


CATTERICK 4.55 (8.4) 

Not a great race and the 2 I give the best chance of winning this race are both on double-figure losing runs so my stakes won't be at full strength but I will be having small bets on both horses, EXTRASOLAR 8/1 and VALLARTA 12/1 they can both be either held up or track the leaders but who will set the pace I haven't a clue but I'm hoping there will be some value in the betting and have 2 each way punts to hopefully make a profit but my stake won't be at full tilt. 

Vallarta 12/1 3rd 
Extrasolar 8/1 8th

See Eric's Secret Tips Here

Saturday, 17 August 2019

2:45 Newmarket Racing Tips (17th August)


NEWMARKET 2.45 (7.0)

There are quite a few relatively unexposed types in the race so any stakes would be kept low, Lethal Angel recorded a time at Yarmouth last year that would make it my top-rated but its time at Newmarket this year was way below that level so I'm not sure this type of track suits it, the one that I will be backing with a small each-way punt is LUCKY BEGGAR 25/1 who prefers the fast ground and likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish. I know I have said this on numerous occasions but please try to check if the going is equal or higher to the figure in brackets after the time of the race before betting, all my figures are done using good or faster going and mean absolutely nothing on the softened ground. 

Lucky Beggar 25/1 Unp 

DONCASTER 3.25 (8.1)

I will concentrate on my top 4 ratings, Acclaim The Nation my 4th top-rated is one of six known front running sorts in this race and drawn in stall 11, Laith Alareen from stall 10 is another possible pacesetter and my 3rd top-rated, The Daley Express is my 2nd top-rated and could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast and fade nearing the finish but my money will be on DAPPER MAN 12/1 who I'm hoping can lead all the way from stall 13 and an each-way wager looks the way to go. 

Dapper Man 16/1 6th 

BATH 7.50 (7.7) 

A tricky little race especially over this distance of 5 furlongs and 160 yards and the problem is do i need a strong finishing 5 furlong horse or a weak finishing 6 furlongs, if the going is good to firm then PRINCELY 11/2 could possibly lead all the way here being my 2nd top-rated using a time from Carlisle last year so will be carrying some of my money, the 3 at the top of the handicap could all be competitive Big Lachie wanting fast ground while Delegate This Lord doesn't want really fast going, the other one I will be backing is SWEET PURSUIT 11/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and should be staying on at the finish.

Sweet Pursuit 11/1 1st 
Princely 7/1 3rd