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Monday, 31 August 2020

4:15 Kempton Racing Tips & Lay Bets (1st September)

KEMPTON 4.15 

TOP BREEZE 17/2 is one of 3 known front runners in the field and is dropped slightly to run here and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch if able to reproduce its best Chelmsford time here. 

KONDRATIEV WAVE 33/1 could go well from stall 2 for a front runner but time-wise on c/d form it has to improve to win the race being a 3yo it could just do that and has a time from Lingfield which is only 3lbs below the top rated horse so maybe worth an each way punt. 

BREATH OF JOY 4/1 I cannot work out why this one is so short as its times here have been on the slow side and may need further on the AW tracks as its still a maiden on the artificial surfaces after 4 attempts but was placed in 3 of those 4 races.

FULL AUTHORITY 5/1 hasn't run on the AW before but its best form has been over five furlongs so may not stay the trip with a fast pace which could/should happen here.

LAST SURPRISE 17/2 only one previous c/d run which was a slow time but does have a time from Chelmsford that makes it my joint top rated on all times but the trainer/jockey stats, 0-11 and 0-5 are a little off-putting.

A SURE WELCOME 12/1 would need to improve time-wise to win this race and hasn't really shown much on the clock since 2018.

DIAMOND DOUGAL 10/1 did record its best time this year but its a few spots below the best time of just 2020 times but could go quite well.

NIGEL NOTT 17/2 has the fastest time on my speed figures for just 2020 which has to be a positive and could go well here and has a chance to win the race if times from elsewhere don't work out. 

SAAHEQ 12/1 is another who’s best time from this year is a few spots below the best and maybe a better proposition when racing over a shorter distance.

CLAREYBLUE 9/1 is versatile with its racing tactics but has no form over this distance on the AW so not really sure what to expect and its best form turf could see it fall short but its another 3yo so it could improve.

AL DAWODIYA 17/2 has one previous run over this c/d which was a slow time, it would lead at a slower pace if nothing else wanted to but that wont happen here so I'm not sure its up to winning this race.

BATCHELOR BOY 12/1 hasn't run at this course before and its best times from Wolverhampton would leave if below the best times on show but it is a 3yo and one that has been known tom lead so never say never.

SUMMARY: There's a few 3yo’s and lightly raced sorts in this race which could suddenly improve and prove dangerous, I would look to lay (Breath Of Joy + Full Authority) I personally will be dutching 4 horses in this race but my stakes wont be at full strength, they are, in no particular order TOP BREEZE 17/2, KONDRATIEV WAVE 33/1, LAST SURPRISE 17/2 and NIGEL NOTT 17/2 and they may all be worth doing each way in this race.

Last Surprise 12/1 1st (Betfair SP: 14.99) (+14.4pts)
Nigel Nott 17/2 5th (-2pt)
Top Breeze 10/1 9th (-2pt) 
Kondratiev Wave 33/1 Unp (-2pt) 

Lay bets: Breath Of Joy +1pt, Full Authority +1pt

Total on the day: +10.4pts

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