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Tuesday, 22 September 2020

8:00 Kempton - Horse Racing Tip & Lay Bet (23rd Septmeber)


KEMPTON 8.00 

MR BUTTONS 10/1 hasn't shown much form in its 3 runs this year but its best from 2019 could see it making the frame but i will lay the win part if a single figure price.

LORDSBRIDGE BOY 3/1 is one of 2 known front running types in the race and this one is my top rated and its best time was recorded this year.

HERONS NEST 14/1 has only shown poor form and i think it will be a big outsider. 

STARTER FOR TEN 5/1 a 3yo with no form at this distance on this surface, its one I couldn't back or lay but i somehow doubt it can win here so the betting maybe the best guide.

UNDER CURFEW 7/2 can find this distance stretches its stamina if there's a fast early pace and that could happen in this race so looks poor value to back and maybe worth risking the lay. 

GOOD EARTH 6/1 another with no distance form on this surface, its a maiden after 13 attempts and i doubt that will change here and could be worth laying. 

LEO DAVINCI 25/1 has only shown poor form so far this year and will be a big outsider.

ENGLISHMAN 25/1 comes out 3rd beston this years c/d times but its last 3 AW runs have been quite poor.

LORNA COLE 7/1 has only slow times at this distance and looks a better horse over a shorter distance so worth laying at the price.

KINGSLEY KLARION 14/1 is the other possible pacesetter and i had to go back to 2018 to find its best time over this c/d which could see it possibly make the frame but on the tissue prices its forecast to be a big outsider. 

DADDY'S DAUGHTER 33/1 looks a likely outsider and this surface might not suit it.

MORNING FURY 20/1 is making its handicap debut but has shown very little in its 3 runs and is the biggest price of all on the tissue prices.

SUMMARY: There was some sprints on turf but rain is forecast to start Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning so i am assuming it will turn the going soft so just this one AW sprint to concentrate on.only 5 of the runners have a recorded time which shows how poor the race is, I could look to lay (Lorna Cole) if Kingsley Klarion was 100% fit after a long time off it would be one i think could make the frame as its a front running type but if LORDSBRIDGE BOY 3/1 gets to the front in this race it ought to prove very hard to catch and will be carrying my money.

Lordsbridge Boy 9/2 4th (-1pt)

Lay bet: Lorna Cole -22pts Betfair SP (31.15) 

Total on the day: -23pts

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