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Tuesday, 27 October 2020

4:15 Kempton Racing Tip (28th October)

KEMPTON 4.15 

ACES has an official rating of 74, although this son of Dark Angel has won over this distance but looks a better horse over a longer trip, so I might lay it at the price (9/2).

RED ALERT, also rated 74, is receiving 3lbs from the topweight but Tony Carroll gelding's best time comes from a race over a shorter trip and another I would look to lay at the price (4/1).

COMMANDER HAN is the only known frontrunner but time-wise Stuart William's chestnut needs to improve. Also, he hasn't raced over this c/d before. I doubt he will hold on all the way to the line (10/1).

GRIGGY is my joint top-rated horse. Sean Curran's charge recorded his best time this year but it was before the lockdown. Hopefully, its three recent runs have boosted his fitness enough to win (6/1).

ATLETICO is the other joint top rated. This eight-year-old recorded that back in 2018 and hasn't been near that level since. This gelding is well weighted on official handicap figures but been on a downward spiral (11/4).

EXCELLENT GEORGE has a time from Chelmsford (the same surface but left-handed) that would make him top-rated. However, his best effort over this c/d is relatively slow and maybe this course just doesn't suit, At the odds, I would lay this one to lose (4/1). 

INNER TREASURE is a three-year-old that hasn't made the frame in any of his previous six races. Marco Botti's gelding hasn't run over this distance before. I think he will be better over a longer trip. A seven-pound apprentice takes the ride and a visor is applied for the first time (20/1).

SPARKLING DIAMOND the other three-year-old in the field has only slow c/d times to its name. Also, its performance at Wolverhampton was a slowly-run affair (8/1). 

SUMMARY: I expect Commander Han to set the pace from stall five. Top-rated GRIGGY 6/1, likes to track the leaders and from stall four should get a good tow into the race and stay on the stronger at the line. Trainer, Sean Curran, has a 20% win rate at this course with his older horses and the jockey has had four rides for this stable and two victories. In fact, he is two from three with older horses so everything points to the connections expecting the horse to get back to winning ways.

Griggy 7/1 1st (+7pts) (Betfair SP 9.79)  

Total on the day: +7pts

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