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Wednesday, 28 October 2020

4:45 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (29th October)

SOUTHWELL 4.45 

I can see a few to lay in this race (Good Earth + Time To Reason + Hawk In The Sky) if they are in single figure prices, Onebaba is my 3rd top-rated so could make the frame but there is a few lightly raced sorts in the race and it won't take much winning.

JAZZ LEGEND 33/1 (EW) is my top-rated using its best time from 2019 but it hasn't shown much in its 3 runs this year but it is the only known frontrunning type in the field and with an easy lead it could get back to winning ways but the jockeys 0-9 record for this stable puts me off a little else it would have been my only selection but at the price, I will have to have an each-way wager on it, I will also be backing.

GORGEOUS GENERAL 10/3 who has the top figure of the others and it was from this year and the trainer does well at this course. 

Generous General 10/3 3rd (-1pt)
Jazz Legend 33/1 Unp (-2pt)

Lay bets: Good Earth +1pt, Time To Reason +1pt, Hawk In The Sky +1pt

Total: 0pts

CHELMSFORD 5.00

There's 3 known frontrunners in this race and Edge Of The Bay is my 3rd top-rated on a 2020 time with Sir Hector in 2nd top spot using its best 2019 time so they should ensure there's a fast early pace but if INDIAN PURSUIT 5/2 can reproduce its best time which was recorded this year it would be winning a little cosily but I think it will be the favourite but I cannot find anything I would back against it. 

Indian Pursuit 5/2 1st (+2pts) (Betfair SP 2,22)

Total +2.5pts

SOUTHWELL 6.15 

Half of the 12 runners have been known to lead before so it will be a fast and furious dash and i have a feeling they might battle too hard and then fade nearing the finish, Crosse Fire can record fast times but doesn't win in this class of race but could make the frame, Dark Shot is versatile with its racing tactics and has a fast c/d time from 2019 to its name, Astro Jakk and King Of Stars are another couple of possible leaders and have times that would put them in the mix, my money will be riding on SAMOVAR 16/1 (EW) and hopefully it will be an each-way price, it is 2nd top on just 2020 c/d times, just 1lb below top spot, and 3rd top overall still only by 1lb, so if they do fade at the finish it could be the one to prosper and must have an each-way chance if repeating its best and the win isn't out of the question. 

Samovar 16/1 -2pt

Total: -2pts

SOUTHWELL 7.15 

Not the worst of races even for a class 6 affair, of the 13 runners there's 3 known front-running types and Red Stripes and Archimedes are both in my top 5 ratings, Loulin has a time from 2019 that would see it in the mix but they could all be battling for a place, I've got joint top-rated horses but Under Curfew recorded its fastest time at Lingfield which is a different surface so I will be backing ARZAAK 5/1 who recorded its best time which was over this c/d and this year which is always a positive.

Arzaak 5/1 (+5pts) (Betfair SP 6.29)

Total: +5pts

Total on the day +5.5pts


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