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Monday, 26 October 2020

4:50 Southwell Racing Tips (27th October)

SOUTHWELL 4.50 

XTARA 15/2 hasn't run on this surface before and its time from Kempton was a slow one, it has been known to lead but whether it can here is debatable.

SHALLOW HAL 14/1 has its best time from this year but it isn't quite good enough to get it into my top four ratings but does have the stall one draw which could help.

QUEEN OF KALAHARI 10/3 is the 2nd of 3 possible pacesetters and has a time which means it could possibly do enough to make the frame.

SCALE FORCE 33/1 hasn't any form on the AW tracks and from what its shown on turf this distance might prove a bit too far for it. 

GLOBAL HOPE 13/2 can be held up or track the leaders but timewise it would need to improve quite a few spots to win this race.

GOLD BROCADE 7/1 the 1st of two 3yo’s it hasn't run on this surface before and would need to improve for the switch to here to win. 

CROSSE FIRE 15/2 is the 3rd known frontrunning type and my4th top rated so could do best of the pacesetters and could possibly do enough to make the frame.

PUCHITA 4/1 is my top rated on just 2020 c/d times and the apprentices 5lb allowance makes it top-rated overall so given a clear run should go well.

LLAMBA 12/1 is 2nd top-rated on just 2020 c/d times but drops to 3rd best on overall figures so has an each-way chance in his race.

SOLEMN PLEDGE 16/1 the 3rd and final 3yo has only one run to its name on the AW tracks, it has won at the distance on turf but in a slow time so not sure what to expect. 

GULLANE ONE 28/1 has a time from 2019 that would make it my 2nd top-rated overall and that's from having 2 runs to its name on the AW tracks. 

SUMMARY: With 3 pacesetting types in the race I think it will be set up for something coming from off the pace, my 2nd to 4th top ratings, Crosse Fire, Llamba and Gullane One, in that order, all have some degree of a chance here and should be battling to fill the places but my money will be riding on PUCHITA 4/1 who is top-rated on both recent and overall figures thanks to the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim and the apprentice has over a 30% win record for the stable and looks to have been found a good opportunity to follow up from its win last time out.

Puchita 4/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total on the day: -1pt

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