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Friday, 23 October 2020

4:42 Chelmsford Racing Tips (24th October)

CHELMSFORD 4.42 Div I 

I have to admit this isn't a great race, only 4 of the 12 runners have a recorded time, there is a couple of horses that have been known to lead before so Mykindofsunshine or Edge Of The Bay could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead, I have the former marked down as a possible hidden danger and the latter is my 3rd top-rated, Leo Minor is my 2nd top-rated but the jockeys 0-13 record for the stable puts me off a bit so I will be backing CAPTAIN RYAN 10/3 who is usually held up for a late run so this race could be run to suit it and the jockey has a decent 17% win ratio for the stable on their older horses but I am a bit disappointed with its price so I'm hoping it might drift before the off. 

Captain Ryan 9/1 3rd (-1pt) 

Total: -1pt

CHELMSFORD 5.15 Div II

This 2nd division is by far the better division with 7 of the 11 having a recorded speed figure, I think Rocketeer from stall 2 could be the one to set the pace but I doubt it will do enough from the front to hold on for the win, Shepherds Purse, Indian Pursuit, Atyaaf, Awake In Asia and Illustrious Spirit all could go well and battle to fill the places, my money will be riding on AQUADABRA 15/2 who usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish it hasn't any previous c/d form but if it can reproduce its best time from Lingfield, the same surface and both are left-handed courses, over this distance, it would be winning a shade cosily here. 

Aquadabra 14/1 5th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

CHELMSFORD 6.15 

I would look to lay (Nigel Nott) who may struggle to stay the distance in the make-up of this race with plenty of early pace, Champagne Supanova is a possible pacesetter and is my 2nd top-rated on just 2020 c/d times, MR WAGYU 12/1 is another possible pacesetter but hasn't any form on this surface but has a time from turf on good to firm ground that would give it every chance in this race so will be carrying some of my money as an each-way wager, Daschas has poor recent form but would go well if reproducing its best 2018 time, another I will back in this race is ENTHAAR 15/2 who has the fastest time from just this year which is always a positive and this one is versatile when it comes to racing tactics but maybe stall 13 isn't ideal if it wanted to lead but this one has a good 18% win ratio for the trainer her and the jockey have over 20% win ratio for this stable and that will make it my main bet in the race.

Mr Wagyu 20/1 9th (-2pt)
Enthaar 16/1 Unp (-1pt)

Total: -3pts

Total on the day: -5pts

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