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Thursday 8 October 2020

6:45 Kempton Racing Tips & Lay Bets (9th October)


RAUCOUS 11/1 hasn't any recent c/d form to work with but has a time from 2019 that would make it my top rated on just c/d times and won last time out so is in good form. 

WATCHABLE 8/1 hasn't any recent form on this surface and its best time from 2018 isn't good enough to win this race.

TINTO 13/2 didn't show any worthwhile form time-wise in 2019 and has no form from this year on this surface but does look a better prospect over a shorter distance. 

ROYAL BIRTH 11/1 has a time from 2019 that makes it my 5th top rated on overall figures but can struggle to stay if there's a fast early pace so not for me in the make-up of this race. 

TROPICS 11/1 has only ran once over this c/d since 2018 and that was a slow time its best form 2018 would make it 3rd best so could go well here.

LAST SURPRISE 2/1 is going for the hattrick here, it is top rated on just 2020 c/d times which is always a positive but it drops to 4th on overall figures but has a decent chance of winning this race

ATALANTIS BOY 3/1 hasn't run at this course before but has a time from Chelmsford which would see it winning this race cosily so must have every chance in this race. 

DEPUTISE 20/1 hasn't any course form to its name and it would need to improve time-wise for the switch to this surface to wine. 

OPEN WIDE 16/1 hasn't shown much recently and hasn't any form at this distance on this surface but has won on turf so cannot be completely ignored.

COASE 14/1 is making its handicap debut but its times on turf were quite slow and i think it might need a longer distance to show its true worth. 

SUMMARY: Quite a competitive race, there should be a decent early pace with horses that have led before in the race, I will look to lay (Tinto + Royal Birth) as both may struggle to stay properly with a fast pace, I wouldn't put anybody off backing any of my top 4 ratings, Tropics, Raucous, LAST SURPRISE 2/1 and ATALANTIS BOY 3/1 but i will be backing two selections highlighted, one with the top time from 2020 and one with the fastest overall speed figure but just as I thought they are the first two in the betting and I don't like backing at short prices but I cannot find anything to take them on with and any each way bet may be battling for just one position in the frame.

Last Surprise 9/4 2nd (-1pt) 
Atalantis Boy 7/2 4th (-1pt) 

Lay bets: Tinto +1pt, Royal Birth +1pt 

Total on the day: 0pts

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