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Wednesday, 7 October 2020

4:10 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (8th October)

SOUTHWELL 4.10 

There's a maximum field of 14 runners 6 of them having been known to lead before and most of my top rated horses are front running sorts, the 2 that might do best of those coming from off the pace are Undercover Brother and Queen Of Kalahari, Sommer Katze and Red Stripes are 2 front runners that have times that would put them in the mix but I will be taking a bit of a punt on CROSSE FIRE 28/1 (EW) who admittedly hasn't shown much so far this year but has a time from 2019 that makes it my top rated, its draw in stall 2 is nearly perfect and I hope it gets away smartly and gains control of the rails and then prove hard to catch, I'm also hoping the tissue prices are right as its forecast to be a twenty to one shot so worth an each way gamble. 

Crosse Fire 28/1 2nd (+6pts) 

Total: +6pts

SOUTHWELL 5.40

This is the 2nd division of this race and the 1st division hasn't much data to work with so looks best left alone, I will look to lay (Onebaba + Northern Charm) as I'm not sure they will like this surface, I will be concentrating on the pair at the top of the handicap, Global Melody is 2nd top rated using just 2020 c/d times but has a time from 2019 that would make it top rated overall, Puchita is top rated on just this years times which is always a bonus and I will go with an each way bet on GLOBAL MELODY 10/1 (EW) and a win bet on PUCHITA 10/3 to cover both angles. 

Global Melody 10/1 1st (+12pts) Betfair SP (9.7) 
Puchita 10/3 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Onebab +1pt, Northern Charm +1pt

Total: +13pts

CHELMSFORD 7.00

This is a cracking looking class 3 dash and half the field of 12 have been known to lead before so it will be fast and furious, I cannot find anything of value to lay but that's maybe to be expected when dealing with better class animals, of the front runners maybe Mercenary Rose and Benny And The Jets will do best and are my 3rd and 4th top rated horses on overall figures, Daschas comes out 2nd top but I did have to go back to 2018 to find that time so I leave this one alone until it shows signs of a revival, I'm hoping the front runners really do go mad at the off and then tire nearing the finish which could play into the hands of JACK THE TRUTH 9/2 who is a hold up type and has been found a good chance of completing its hattrick.

Jack The Truth 5/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

Total on the day:  +18pts

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