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Monday 14 December 2020

5:25 Newcastle Racing Tips (15th December)


RAABEH 9/2 this 3yo can be held up or track the leaders my 2nd top rated on 2020 c/d times, middling trainer/jockey stats could make the frame but isn't an each way price.

ARCAVALLO 9/2 a possible pacesetter my top rated on 2020 c/d times plus top rated overall, middling trainer stats, jockey is 0-3, could lead all the way.

MARWARL 33/1 not much worthwhile form lately and will be an outsider in this race.

ROCKLEY POINT 4/1 my 3rd top rated on 2020 c/d times, is versatile with its racing tactics that includes leading, below average trainer stats and 1-22 jockey stats could make the frame but not really an each way price.

DANDIZETTE 22/1 this 3yo hasn't been in good form lately has been known to lead but maybe not able to do so here and will probably be an outsider.

AMELIA R 7/1 has a relatively slow speed figure mainly because it prefers a longer trip and I doubt it will finish fast enough to win but has an outside chance of making the frame but once again not worth backing each way at the price.

SUPERSEDED 12/1 running ok at times recently, a possible front runner but speed figures make it just outside my top 4 ratings and that was using a 2019 time so not for me here.

ATYAAF 7/1 hasn't been in good form lately and its best time which was recorded this year leaves it a bit short of winning the race and likely to be an outsider, much shorter than I anticipated and worth laying at a single figure price.

NELLIE FRENCH 28/1 this 3yo has been quite poor lately and is a maiden who hasn't even made the frame from its 8 races so an outsider here.

BLACKCURRANT 8/1 has only slow c/d times while its best time from Wolverhampton in 2019 would make it my 4th top rated horse and at a single figure price maybe worth laying.

LAOISE 14/1 has finished 4th twice in slowish run races and its best form is lacking in terms of winning this race but a fair bit shorter in price than I expected and I would lay it if worthwhile value wise.

ANGEL EYES 12/1 another horse that's not been in form for quite awhile now and I cannot see that changing here and i think it will drift in the betting but i would lay it if of value.

AYYAAMY 28/1 this 3yo hasn't even made the frame in any of its six races and not shown anything to make me think it will be winning anytime soon. 

ISABELLA RUBY 18/1 another that's shown very little lately and always looks as though a longer distance is needed to show its best.

SUMMARY: I would look to lay Amelia R if a single figure price as it may need further, Rockley Point is my joint 2nd top rated using a 2019 time but the jockeys 1-22 record is a bit off-putting but it could make the frame, Raabeh is my other joint 2nd top rated and will be trying to stay on at the finish but my money will be riding on ARCAVALLO 9/2 who has been found its best opportunity for a while now to lead from the off and hopefully be able to do enough to get back to winning ways.

Arcavallo 9/2 4th (-1pt)

Total on the day: -1pt

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