What a poor race this is, I've only got 3 runners with times good enough to register on my graphs and all of those figures either came from last year or a different course, if I knew there would be a fast early pace then I would lay Essaka 7/2 who may struggle to stay the trip and looks poor value, Hey Ho Lets Go hasn't shown much this year and i would lay it if priced under the 10/1 currently on offer, Cool Strutter 6/1 has a 1-30 record on the AW tracks and this distance does stretch it if there's a fast early pace so looks worth taking on at the price, betting wise I will be having two bets on BURNING SUN 4/1 as this 3yo is my 2nd top rated using a Chelmsford time and it was recorded this year which is a positive, Captain Ryan has been capable on its best form but its no a 9yo so not likely to improve but could make the frame, my other bet will an each way bet on MERCERS 14/1 who did record its best time over this c/d but that was in 2019 and this one doesn't want a fast early pace so could hopefully give me some insurance if the early pace is on the slow side, I certainly wont be going in all guns blazing in such a dire affair.
Burning Sun 9/2 7th (-1pt)
Mercers 14/1 Unp (-1pt)
Total: -2pts
KEMPTON 8.10 6f Class 6 Div II
This 2nd division isn't any better but I do have 5 this time with recorded times and only MONT KIARA 8/1 has been known to lead before and if allowed an easy lead it could lead all the way as it is my 2nd top rated and that is using a c/d time but from 2019 while in its defence it has only had one previous c/d race this year and therefore will be carrying some of my money, top weight Charles Le Brun 5/2 was on my radar in its last run when it finished 3rd at Southwell and looking at its turf form I thought it would like the surface but I am not sure it will relish these conditions so maybe worth taking on with a lay bet at the price, I would also look to lay Leo Minor 13/2 as long as it stays at a single figure price, I will though be backing something else in this race, if I use its best time recorded at Lingfield then URBAN HIGHWAY 13/2 would win cosily but it has raced here four times over this c/d and none produced a time good enough to register on my graphs, I cannot let it go without a bet just in case it can reproduce its best at this course so having the two bets looks the best way forward.
Mont Kiara 12/1 5th (-1pt)
Urban Highway 13/2 Unp (-1pt)
Total: -2pts
Total on the day: -4pts
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