1:35 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay (7th February)

SOUTHWELL 1.35 

I can find two runners who like to lead, I can find 2 runners, Pedestal and Essaka that I would like to lay but i expect they will all be double prices so of no value to lay the win part but might be worth laying not to make the frame, I can find 4 horses that could go well here, Dark Side Dream who comes out joint 2nd best on recent c/d speed figures but the race it won last time out had a slow early pace and the 2nd from that day could reverse the form in this race and is only joint 4th top on overall figures and in my opinion poor value at 9/4, Blackcurrant 9/1 has only produced slow times from its two previous runs over this c/d but the jockey is 2-4 for the stable so maybe they are expecting a good run here and could make the frame, Red Allure 6/1 ran well when finishing 2nd last time out but that was a slow run race so the form might not be reliable but is a possible front runner and could do enough to make the frame but the trainer is 0-26 at this course while the jockey does well on the stables older horses but isn't an each way price, Bluella 6/1 comes out 2nd best overall and that is using a 2020 time but didn't run well in its last race while it is a c/d winner which is always a positive and could make the frame here if on a going day but not an each way price in my eyes, my money will be riding on ARCAVALLO 7/2 who led last time out until caught and beaten by today's top weight, it is 3lbs better off here and may have got the fractions wrong when leading in that race and if going slightly faster here, which it might be forced to do by Red Allure it could this time thwart the late run of the top weight and hold on for victory. 

SOUTHWELL 4.35 

For a class 6 affair this is a nice looking race, firstly I will mention (Qaaraat 3/1) who has won over this distance but not at this course and it might find it a bit too far on this slower surface and i will look to lay it and i think it will be to the fore of the betting, there is 2 more I would look to lay but I expect they will outsiders in this race, Ustaith a previous c/d winner could try to set the pace and if? getting to the front from stall 7 it could do enough to make the frame but is 11/2 value for an each way bet, in my opinion the answer is no but i know some people do bet each way at the price as you get your money back or a very small profit if making the frame, my 3rd top rated is Sir Rodneyredblood 9/2 using a Lingfield time but its recent c/d time is good enough for 2nd top spot but thats only good enough for 4th top overall, Barrington 7/1 has a time from Lingfield in 2020 that would make it my top rated by 2lbs, it hasn't run over this c/d before so not sure what to expect and from stall 8 it might need some luck in running, I will be pinning my hopes on PEARL OF QATAR 3/1 who is my top rated on recent times and only 2lbs below top spot then add on that its versatile with its racing tactics which does include leading and from the stall 3 draw i am hoping that will the the tactics deployed here and if getting to the front and control of the rails it ought to be hard to catch, the trainers record is 2-9 and the jockey has a 27% win rate for the stable so it looks like they are expecting a big run and hopefully one place better than its last two runs.

5:30 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (20th January)

SOUTHWELL 5.30 

Only 5 runners and 4 of them have been known to lead so it will or should be a fast run race which makes me think that (Zapper Cass) may get outpaced or if it tries to go the pace then might not stay the distance so one to lay, Zylan and Requinto Dawn could run big races but I will be hoping that YOUNG JOHN 7/2 can away smartly and then gain control of the rails and if able to reproduce its best time from 2019 it could lead all the way and get back to winning ways. 

Young John 4/1 4th -1pt

Lay bet: Zapper Cass +1pt

Total: 0pts

SOUTHWELL 7.00 

This is a poor class 6 stakes race and it will not take much winning but the biggest problem is the lack of early pace although First Excel has been known to lead but only when nothing else wants to set the pace but has only slow times recently and i had to go back to 2019 to find its best time and that would be a few pounds shy of winning this race, Amazing Amaya is 2nd best on 2020/21 c/d times but drops back to joint 5th overall alongside Red Allure, Blackcurrant is joint 3rd best using a 2019 time while GEORGE THOMAS 12/1 (EW) the other joint 3rd top rated recorded its time in 2020 and it was good enough for top spot on recent times and has to be backed each way at the price, Leo Minor is 2nd best but that time was recorded at Chelmsford a completely different surface and the jockeys 0-13 is a little off-putting, the same applies to Dubai Paradise with a poor jockey stat of 0-12 but its time was also from Chelmsford, so I will stick to recent c/d times and the selections trainer does have a 19% win rate with their older horses. 

George Thomas 18/1 Unp -2pts

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 7.30 

This time its another class 6 race but quite good for the class, I have found 3 that could try to set the pace, Archimedes could lead but hasn't won for awhile now and the jockeys 0-13 record is off-putting although it has run well and finished in the frame on its last 2 runs and could make the frame again here, Brandy Station is 2nd top rated if using its best Newcastle time but its 2 c/d runs have produced only low speed figures, BLUELLA 16/1 is my 3rd top rated and could do best of those coming from off the pace and the apprentice jockey has a 21% win ratio for the stable, my other selection is ARCAVALLO 11/2 who is capable of leading and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch being my top rated it would have been my sole selection apart from the jockeys 0-5 record for the stable.

Arcavallo 6/1 2nd (-1pt)

Bluella 16/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total: -2pts 

Total on the day: -4pts

1:30 Southwell Racing Tips (18th December)

SOUTHWELL 1.30 

In this race Duke Of Firenze has relatively slow times to its name and Lezardieux might need further so I would look to the lay the pair of them, the other 4 runners are only separated by 2lb’s, Dark Shot could possibly set the pace and if getting an easy lead it could pinch the race especially as it’s best time from 2019 would make it my joint top rated, Birkenhead is the other joint top rated and usually likes to track the leaders, Zapper Cass is 3rd best but only 1lb off top spot and should be staying on strongly at the finish, Thegreatestshowman is my 4th top rated but has poor trainer/jockey stats, looking through the rest of the trainer/jockey stats both of the ones I was going to lay come off the list, I will take a punt and back ZAPPER CASS 11/2 because the jockey on this ones 7lb claim moves it to top spot and the apprentice has 1 -3 record for this stable. 

Zapper Cass 11/2 1st (+5.5pts) (Betfair SP 6.84) 

Total: +5.5pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.10 Div I 

The 3 at the bottom of the handicap haven't shown any worthwhile form lately but I expect they will be outsiders, Mansfield best time was back in 2018 and been nowhere near that level since, Red Allure and Raspberry both have relatively slow times, Superseded and Thegreyvtrain could try to set the pace but I'm not sure they are fast enough to lead here, the early pace could be set by ARCAVALLO 2/1 it doesn't have any course form but if able to reproduce its best Newcastle time then i would win a little cosily but just in case it doesn't show its best I will also back the top rated horse on c/d times and that is TIME TO REASON 5/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish, the prices ain't great but I cannot go against my analysis. 

Arcavallo 7/4 4th (-1pt) 

Time To Reason 7/1 6th (-1pt) 

Total: -2pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.45 Div II

This 2nd division is harder to analyse despite having 3 runners that have been known to lead before but 2 of them at the bottom of the handicap haven't been in form lately so that leaves me thinking the pace maybe set by Red Stripes but the times of this one this year have been below par, age may be catching up with this 8yo but it could still run a good race but the trainer only has a 2% win ratio at this course, Dubai Paradise has a time from Chelmsford that would make it my 2nd top rated overall but its one run over this c/d resulted in a slow time and the jockey is 09- for the stable, Trouser The Cash has a time from Chelmsford that would make it my top rated but its c/d time is way below that effort and the trainers record here is 0-7, which leaves me with backing *PASSIONAL 2/1 who is my top rated on just 2020 c/d times and this one should be staying on strongly at the finish and this race could be run to suit it plus it has what looks a positive jockey booking but once again the price is quite low. 

*NR

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.45 

Only 8 runners for this class 2 sprint which always puzzles me why so few enter to win a 12k race but I'm struggling to analyse it to conclusion, LORD RIDDIFORD 6/1 would be the one to lead using just 2020 c/d times but Lihou is also a front runner and has a fast time from Lingfield but hasn't raced on this surface before so I am not sure what to expect while this is a step up of 2 grades to run here and it had to drop down from class 3 to 4 to get back to winning ways last time out, the same thing applies to Lampang as I am once again using a Lingfield time as this one finished fast over 5 furlongs in a very fast time and if staying this extra distance would have to have a good chance, I usually go with the proven and that is Lord Riddiford but I will also have covering bets on Lampang just in case it does like this surface and stays the extra furlong.

Lord Riddiford 6/1 2nd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: +2.5pts

5:25 Newcastle Racing Tips (15th December)

NEWCASTLE 5.25 

RAABEH 9/2 this 3yo can be held up or track the leaders my 2nd top rated on 2020 c/d times, middling trainer/jockey stats could make the frame but isn't an each way price.

ARCAVALLO 9/2 a possible pacesetter my top rated on 2020 c/d times plus top rated overall, middling trainer stats, jockey is 0-3, could lead all the way.

MARWARL 33/1 not much worthwhile form lately and will be an outsider in this race.

ROCKLEY POINT 4/1 my 3rd top rated on 2020 c/d times, is versatile with its racing tactics that includes leading, below average trainer stats and 1-22 jockey stats could make the frame but not really an each way price.

DANDIZETTE 22/1 this 3yo hasn't been in good form lately has been known to lead but maybe not able to do so here and will probably be an outsider.

AMELIA R 7/1 has a relatively slow speed figure mainly because it prefers a longer trip and I doubt it will finish fast enough to win but has an outside chance of making the frame but once again not worth backing each way at the price.

SUPERSEDED 12/1 running ok at times recently, a possible front runner but speed figures make it just outside my top 4 ratings and that was using a 2019 time so not for me here.

ATYAAF 7/1 hasn't been in good form lately and its best time which was recorded this year leaves it a bit short of winning the race and likely to be an outsider, much shorter than I anticipated and worth laying at a single figure price.

NELLIE FRENCH 28/1 this 3yo has been quite poor lately and is a maiden who hasn't even made the frame from its 8 races so an outsider here.

BLACKCURRANT 8/1 has only slow c/d times while its best time from Wolverhampton in 2019 would make it my 4th top rated horse and at a single figure price maybe worth laying.

LAOISE 14/1 has finished 4th twice in slowish run races and its best form is lacking in terms of winning this race but a fair bit shorter in price than I expected and I would lay it if worthwhile value wise.

ANGEL EYES 12/1 another horse that's not been in form for quite awhile now and I cannot see that changing here and i think it will drift in the betting but i would lay it if of value.

AYYAAMY 28/1 this 3yo hasn't even made the frame in any of its six races and not shown anything to make me think it will be winning anytime soon. 

ISABELLA RUBY 18/1 another that's shown very little lately and always looks as though a longer distance is needed to show its best.

SUMMARY: I would look to lay Amelia R if a single figure price as it may need further, Rockley Point is my joint 2nd top rated using a 2019 time but the jockeys 1-22 record is a bit off-putting but it could make the frame, Raabeh is my other joint 2nd top rated and will be trying to stay on at the finish but my money will be riding on ARCAVALLO 9/2 who has been found its best opportunity for a while now to lead from the off and hopefully be able to do enough to get back to winning ways.

Arcavallo 9/2 4th (-1pt)

Total on the day: -1pt

6:15 Newcastle Racing Tips & lay Bets (20th November)

NEWCASTLE 6.15 

I have a couple to lay (Outrage 6/1 + Call Me Ginger 15/2) as long as they stay in single figure prices, the draw isn't of real importance here and the 4 known front running sorts are drawn in stall 7 or higher Captain Jameson is my 3rd top rated and a possible pacesetter but is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and comes from stall 7 and could make the frame, Kind Review could do best of those coming from off the pace while I'm hoping FANTASY KEEPER 5/1 can lead all the way here from stall 13. 

Fantasy Keeper 11/2 7th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Outrage +1pt, Call Me Ginger +1pt

Total: +1pt

NEWCASTLE 7.15 

This is a very competitive race for a class 5 affair, Be Proud may run better than its latest form and has a time from 2019 that would make it my 2nd top rated but recent form sees it drop to joint 5th spot alongside the front running Another Angel, the hold up type Ballyare is 4th top rated, the stall 1 horse Tathmeen comes out 3rd top and will be trying to stay on at the finish, my top rated is LORD OF THE GLEN 15/2 who is one of 3 in the race who could set the pace and has a good chance to get back to winning ways. 

Lord Of The Glen 9/1 8th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

NEWCASTLE 7.45 

With no known front running types in this race its hard to analyse, Herringswell, Fair Alibi and Epeius could all run well here and could be worth an each way bet if a big price but I will be taking a chance on BUCCANEERS VAULT 16/1 (EW) who is top rated on 2020 c/d times and that rating is also good enough to take the top spot overall prize, it usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on resolutely at the finish and at the price it has be to be given as an each way wager. 

Buccaneer Vault 16/1 5th (-2pts)

Total -2pts

NEWCASTLE 8.15 

A full house of 14 runners and 3 that seem to prefer to front run in their race Rockley Point is one of them and comes out 4th top overall and could do enough to make the frame, I've got joint 2nd top spot horses in Qaaraat and It Must Be Faith who both like to track the leaders and then stay on stoutly at the finish but I will be putting my money on ARCAVALLO 5/1 who is a front running sort and I am hoping it can lead all the way here and get back to winning ways.

Arcavallo 5/1 7th -1pt

Total -1pt 

Total on the day: -3pts

5:30 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (6th November)

NEWCASTLE 5.30 

With 3 known front running sorts in the race it should be a true run affair and one of them Fantasy Keeper is top rated using a time from Kempton and its never run on this surface before the only thing that makes me think this might be its race is because the apprentice jockey is 0-12 for the stable but it is running again quickly so it cannot be ignored and i might have a covering bet on it, I will look to lay (Amaysmont + *Bunnian + Be Proud) if in single figure prices, Gowanbuster could do best of the pacesetters as its 2nd top on just 2020 c/d times but only 5th top on overall figures, Lucky Lodge is another that could go well if reproducing its best but i will be backing KIND REVIEW 9/2 who is my top rated on 2020 c/d times and 2nd top overall but as I've already said the top rated’s best time came on a different surface and the selection has a positive looking jockey booking. 

*NR

Kind Review 9/2 9th (-1pt) 

Lay bets: Amaysmont +1pt, Be Proud +1pt

Total: +1pt

NEWCASTLE 8.05 

In this maximum 14 runner dash I can find four known front runners and they are my top four ratings, Highland Acclaim and Sin E Shekell's may both prefer a longer trip and I would look to lay them if they are a single figure price, Longroom is my 4th top rated and although the draw doesn't matter as there's no bend to manoeuvre its drawn in stall 1, Lord Of The Glen who is in stall 5 won very easily when finishing like a train at Southwell and this is the track where the rest of his wins have been, Slowmo is my 2nd top rated and comes out of stall 6 so this pair might take each other on but my top rated is ARCAVALLO 7/1 who finished 3rd behind Lord Of The Glen at Southwell, I quite expected the selection to lead that day but sat just behind the leaders, it is 5lbs better off in this race and if it leads here it should be able to hold on for the win and being in stall 12 it could get across to the rail and then prove hard to catch and the change of jockey looks a positive move as he has a 3-7 record for the stable on turf.

Arcavallo 7/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt 

Total on the day: -1pt

2:33 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (3rd November)

SOUTHWELL 2.33 

A nice looking 12 runner class 6 affair with 2 known front running types,I will look to lay (Nordic Fire 9/1+ *Vape 4/1) if they are in single figure prices, if they drift I would then back them to show a profit whatever the result , Kraka is one of the probable pacesetters and my 4th top rated overall but 2nd top on just 2020 c/d times, Pearl Of Qatar is top rated on just 2020 times but slips to 3rd best overall, Requited sits in 2nd top spot using a 2019 time and hasn't run over this c/d this year but top spot belongs to YOUNG JOHN 11/1 (EW) who is the other known front runner and if getting to the front then it could prove hard to catch and will be carrying my money as an each way wager. 

Young John 11/1 5th (-2pts) 

Lay bet: Nordic Fire +1pt

Total: -1pt

SOUTHWELL 3.03 Div I

I can find a few I could lay in this race but some are of no value but if in single figure prices i would look to lay (Thegreyvtrain 7/2 + Ustath 8/1) as I don't think this surface suits them, Kyllachy Warrior is my 3rd top rated with Amazing Amaya sitting in 2nd top spot but I'm hoping in this dash that HONEY GG 10/1 (EW) can get away smartly and if getting to the front it ought to prove hard to beat if its reproduces its best time from last year and at the price i have to give it as an each way punt. 

Honey GG 10/1 4th (-2pts)

Lay bets: Ustath -3.2pts (Betfair 5), Thegreyvtrain +1pt

Total: -4.2pts 

SOUTHWELL 3.33 Div II

This is by far the better division and I will look to lay (Lord Of The Glen 7/4) who according to the tissue prices will be the favourite but I don't think this surface is one that shows it at its best so could be of value to lay, there's two known front runners in this division and they are also my top 2 ratings, ARCAVALLO 9/2 is 2nd top rated but only 2lbs below ARCHIMEDES 9/1 and either of them could win this race and if not going off too fast could have the race between themselves and I will be backing them both. 

Arcavallo 9/2 3rd (-1pt)

Archimedes 9/1 7th (-1pt)

Lay bet: -4.5pts (Betfair 5.95) 

Total: -6.5pts

NEWCASTLE 8.15 

To tell the truth this race is poor and wont take much winning and with some 3yo’s and some lightly raced sorts its not a race to be betting too heavily in, Northern Charm is versatile with its racing tactics and is my 3rd top rated, Phantasmal comes out 2nd top rated and is usually held up for a late run and could make the frame meanwhile STAR CRACKER 16/1 (EW) has the same time as my 2nd top rated beast using just 2020 times but has a time from 2019 that is a few spots better and it could lead all the way here and worth an each way bet at the odds.