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Saturday, 13 February 2021

2:20 Southwell Racing Tip (14th February)


SOUTHWELL 2.20 

ZAPPER CASS 5/1 will be trying to stay on strongly at the finish and has the highest speed figure on recent, 2020/21, form, it has a record of 2 wins and 4 places from 8 c/d runs and the jockey has a 15% win ratio for the stable.

DIAMOND DOUGAL 11/2 could try to set the pace, its one run here was quite poor but has won with cut in the ground on turf so this surface should suit it but this doesn't appear to be the trainers happiest hunting ground. 

FANTASY KEEPER 7/2 has reasonable trainer/jockey stats of 13% wins but is from the same stable as the top weight which i think will be their main hope in this race so maybe being kept for another day. 

CHARMING KID 13/2 has poor trainer/jockey stats and I don't think this surface really suits it but does have a good speed figure from Newcastle in 2020 but that is a different surface so not really sure what to expect. 

DUKE OF FIRENZE 17/2 has one c/d win to its name from 7 attempts and the jockeys 0-2 record doesn't inspire confidence but is 2nd top rated on recent c/d times and could make the frame but now with Centurian Song being a non-runner there's only 2 places up for grabs and I am not a fan of betting each way with only 2 chances of making a profit. 

ALSVINDER 6/1 has a time from Chelmsford that would make it top rated overall and has finished 2nd on good to soft ground so might like this surface but the jockeys 0-11 record makes me think it will be readied for a future target. 

QAARAAT 7/2 has been running well lately but all in class 5 and 6 races so may be outclassed in this class 4 race, it does well at this course and could still make the frame but at the price I will be laying it for the win part. 

SUMMARY: Firstly I would look to lay the win part on (Qaaraat 7/2) if its a single figure price, there's a few that could go well looking at pieces of data but nothing much of consistent form, my money will be riding on ZAPPER CASS 5/1 who is my top rated on recent, 2020/21, c/d times it likes to stay on at the business end of a race and this race could be run to suit it.

Zapper Cass 5/1 5th (1pt)

Lay bet: Qaaraat +1pt

Total on the day: 0pts

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