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Sunday 14 February 2021

4:25 Wolverhampton Racing Tip (15th February)


CHARLEMAINE 22/1 is 0-3 on AW tracks but hasn't any course form while its 2 runs at this distance at Newcastle didn't produce a speed figure that registered on my graphs and I expect it will be a double figure price.

ISLAND MEMORY 14/1 the trainers 1-49 win ratio here puts me off and this horse hasn't shown much in its 3 runs but all over longer distances and I'm surprised to see it drop in distance for its handicap debut and it isn't fancied in the betting.

AMAZING AMAYA 3/1 has poor single figure trainer/jockeys stats but has won once from its 5 runs over this c/d so it could make the frame in this race being my 2nd top rated on recent, 2020/21, c/d times.

TRUE HERO 9/4 could try to lead here but it does have 2 other front running types drawn on its inside so must make sure its not taken too wide round the bends, it won last time out at Southwell, I'm not sure if the surface was very slow that day but the time certainly was plus its sole run over this c/d also produced a slow time as are its times from Newcastle but after winning comfortably last time out it could go well here but a bit short in the betting for a horse with unanswered questions over this c/d. 

RED STRIPES 9/1 one of the possible pacesetters and has the plum draw in stall 1 but its had 35 previous c/d runs where it was placed 12 times but no wins to its name so I would look today the win part and could get shorter in running before fading close home. 

NELLIE FRENCH 7/2 is my top rated on recent c/d times and this ones best time was recorded this year proving it is in good form and has won twice from just 3 previous c/d runs. 

VALENTINE BLUES 11/1 has poor trainer/jockey stats although the jockey has only ridden once before for this stable, it races as though further would be better over 6 furlongs so I think it will get outpaced here and I expect it will be an outsider. 

DUBAI PARADISE 9/1 the trainer has a 11% win ratio here but the jockeys 0-16 is a bit concerning, its held on form by Amazing Amaya and I'm not sure this surface suits it producing slow times in all 4 of its c/d runs and worth laying at a single figure price. 

SUPERSEDED 22/1 is the 3rd horse that might try to lead, its best time which was produced in 2019 might see it make the frame but has only produced slow times from its 3 recent c/d runs and in total its not won from all 9 of its c/d runs. 

TAN 33/1 also has a good time from 2019 but its 2 runs over this c/d since then have only produced slow times but the trainer has a poor 1% win ratio with their older horses and its only 2% on all ages and will be a big outsider in this race. 

DIAMOND DREAM 66/1 has only poor form to its name and hasn't made the frame in 9 AW races and the trainers record at this course is 0-24 so a big outsider. 

SUMMARY: Quite a poor race even for class 6 standard, I can find a few that I would look to lay but most will be double figures in the betting so of no value, True Hero could go well and may win if taking to the surface although its not shown much in one run here and one at Newcastle on the same surface, I will be siding with NELLIE FRENCH 7/2 who can hopefully get a good early position from stall 4 from which to attack in the latter stages of the race.

Nellie French 7/2 1st (+3.5pts) (Betfair SP 5.45) 

Total on the day +3.5pts

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