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Thursday 18 February 2021

6:45 Southwell Racing Tips (19th February)


SPRING ROMANCE 17/2 has won 3 of its 6 previous c/d runs but time wise it needs to improve and has only average trainer/jockey stats but did run well when finishing 2nd last time out I'm not quite confident enough to lay it. 

LORD OBERON 4/1 has pretty good trainer 22% and jockey 33% stats but hasn't any recent c/d form to work with and I had to go back to 2018 to find its last recorded time for this c/d and that is enough to make it 4th top overall. 

REQUINTO DAWN 9/4 looks the one most likely pacesetter hence why I think its been made favourite and has a time from this year that would make it 2nd top rated just for this year and its best from 2020 is good enough for 3rd top overall and should run a big race and could hold on if others fail to repeat their best. 

LILKLAN 12/1 has only one c/d run to its name which resulted in a slow time but has a time from Chelmsford that would make it top rated on overall figures but the poor previous c/d run is a bit off-putting and its not fancied in the betting. 

SCALE FORCE 3/1 has decent trainer-17%/jockey-27% stats but I think it might be a better prospect over a longer distance and needs to improve time wise but is it worth laying, that will depend how fast the early pace is, if they go off at a fast gallop it could play into its hands, a slow early pace and maybe wont catch the front runners. 

GLOBAL HOPE 16/1 hasn't won in its previous 4 c/d runs, it has ok trainer/jockey stats and its another that would need to improve time wise to win this race but not of any value to lay. 

EXCESSABLE 6/1 has good trainer/jockey stats and likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and is top rated on this years c/d times and 2nd spot overall and its only 1lb off top spot. 

BOUNTY PURSUIT 16/1 is another with good trainer/jockey stats but its sole c/d run only produced a slow time and hasn't shown much time wise on any AW track and an outsider. 

SUMMARY: I must give a warning about this course, they have said this surface is coming to the end of its workable life and will be replaced in the spring with the Tapeta surface, all recent times have been very slow and that might be down to the surface’s deterioration. The only older horse handicap with 8 runners, so I'm hoping they all take part, Requinto Dawn if setting the pace could be hard to catch for most being my 3rd top rated, I'm not sure if Lilklan likes this surface or not so the safest bet looks to be EXCESSABLE 6/1 who is only 1lb off top spot and that was recorded this year so is top rated on recent c/d times and its one of many with good trainer/jockey stats.

Excessable 6/1 2nd -1pt

Total on the day: -1pt

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