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Thursday, 25 March 2021

4:30 Lingfield Racing Tips (26th March)

LINGFIELD 4.30 

There is not a lot of form to work with in this sprint which is not unusual in class 5 races, there is a couple I would like to lay (Onebaba 5/1 + Shining 4/1) the former may not really like this surface and or may need further while the latter seems better over shorter distances, Knockout Blow is well weighted on it’s best speed figure which was recorded this year, which I always a positive, but it does it’s best work in a lower class race than this one so maybe it cannot win this race, it has won over this c/d before but I think it is a better horse over shorter distances, the same applies about the rise in class, to Sir Hector, I think both or either could run a decent race but maybe not be able to win, the horse I will be putting my faith and money in is ALSVINDER 9/2 who at first glance doesn’t look to have done much recently, firstly the jockey booking looks a positive move a he has a 29% win rate on the stables older horses, secondly and hopefully more importantly is that this horse has been known to lead all the way before and with no other known front runners in the race it could lead all the way. 

Alsvinder 9/2 2nd -1pt

Lay bet: Shining +1pt

Total 0pts 

LINGFIELD 5.00

I am not a fan of backing favourites but I expect my selection will be the favourite for this race, i will start with a couple I will look to lay (Valentine Blues 10/3) as it looks as though its better over shorter distances, Tomahawk Ridge is the only known pace setting type in the race but it hasn’t any form on this surface so I am not sure what to expect but it could be dangerous with an easy lead, Dubai Paradise could run a decent race but it is still a maiden after 15 races, I will have a small bet on HEY HO LETS GO 4/1 who I hope can follow up on it’s win last time out. 

Hey Let's Go 4/1 +4pts 

Total +4pts

NEWCASTLE 6.15 

This is a funny looking 5 furlong dash with 4 known front runners in the race, so they might go off too fast and then fade nearing the finish so i will back to horses to cover the angles, Fendale, Nibras Again and Fashion Advice are all capable of running well in this sort of race but I doubt any will be an each way price, I will back ANOTHER ANGEL 12/1 who is one of the front running types in the race and if able to reproduce its best time from 2020 would hold on for the win but I am hoping this one will be an each way price, secondly I will also back DAZZLING DES 11/2 who likes to run on strongly at the finish and the jockey does well on the stables older horses. 

Dazzling Des 6/1 1st +6pts 
Another Angel 14/1 7th -1pt

Total +5pts

NEWCASTLE 7.45 Div I 

Being on a straight course here means the draw has little effect which is good for my selection in this race who is a front running sort, I have got 2 marked down as potential lays (Sambucca Spirit 9/1 + Harry's Ridge 6/1) the former may need a longer distance and this surface doesn't seem to be its favoured one, the latter may also prefer further but may also need this run for fitness, Klopp, Gleniffer and Suwaan could be the ones to prosper if the two front runners go off too fast, Swiss Connection is coming out of stall 5 and could run well but strictly on form it has the measure of Gleniffer but the latter has only had one previous run over this c/d so could improve but I will be siding with ARCAVALLO 10/1 who could set the pace and if able to reproduce its best rating from 2020 it could lead all the way but the jockeys 1-16 record for the stable means my stake won’t be at full strength. 

Arcavallo 10/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bets: Harry's Ridge 6/1 -6pts, Smabucca Spirit +1pt

-6pts


NEWCASTLE 8.15 Div II 

Once again there's 2 known front runners in this 2nd division of the race and one of them will be my choice to win the race, some of the runners have bits of form that would make them competitive but firstly there’s a couple I will look to lay in this race, (Phoenix Star 11/2 + True Hero 6/4) the former has good jockey stats but the trainer is 0-3 at this course and maybe this one needs further to show its best although it has won at this distance in a slow run affair which will not happen here, the latter is predicted to be the favourite and certainly isn't value at the price when its best time from Wolverhampton would need to be improved upon to win this race and its 2 runs over this c/d both resulted in a slow time, I will let my money ride on ROCKLEY POINT 13/2 who can front run and its best time from last year would be good enough to see it win this race.

Rockley Point 13/2 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets True Hero 6/4 -1.5pts, Phoenix Star +1

Total on the day -2.5pts

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