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Tuesday 9 March 2021

4:45 Kempton Racing Tips (10th March)


PHOENIX STAR 7/2 at the revised weights should be able to reverse the form with Madrinho who beat it last time out and 3rd top rated on my overall figures and 2nd top on recent times.

MADRINHO 7/2 it was a slow run affair which this horse won last time out but hopefully something set a faster pace this time and then may struggle to follow up here, its my joint 4th top rated and looks poor value so I would look to lay the win part. 

SUPERIORITY 6/1 hasn't any course form while I think it might need this run for fitness plus it might be better over a shorter distance so has to be another I will look to lay.

WENTWORTH AMIGO 22/1 has only poor recent form and I think it will be one of the outsiders in the betting. 

DARING GUEST 13/2 has a decent jockey booking and usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish has only ran here once in a slow time but does have a fast time from Chelmsford in 2019 which makes it top rated on overall figures so has to be respected. 

SILENT WITNESS 6/1 is the other joint 4th top rated and this ones best figure comes from this year so could possibly make the frame but isn't really an each way price.

NEZAR 14/1 is my top rated on recent course and distance times which is always positive and 2nd top on overall figures but its hasn't won in 8 previous c/d runs, maybe 9th time lucky and at the price might be worth an each way punt. 

SWISSAL 14/1 has had 3 c/d runs resulting in being placed in 2 of those 3 races but all of them were in slow run affairs and isn't fancied in the betting which is what I expected.

BLUEBELL TIME 16/1 hasn't any surface form to work with and hasn't made the frame in its 3 AW runs, I think it looks a better horse when raced over a shorter distance but Too big a price to be of value to lay. 

PORT NOIR 20/1 hasn't shown anything worthwhile form wise for quite a while now and would need to improve radically to win here but never say never but the bookies agree that it has very little chance of winning.

TYGER BAY 6/1 has won over this c/d but once again it was a slow run affair and i doubt this race will be run at a canter, I don't fancy its chances of winning but also i couldn't lay it. 

SUMMARY: Not a nice race because there isn't one known front runner in the race, yes something will lead but how fast a pace will be set I haven't a clue and what very often happens is more than one trainer tries new tactics and then they go off too fast and fade nearing the finish, I will look to lay (Madrinho + Superiority) the former is likely to be at the fore in the betting but could have its form reversed with the top weight PHOENIX STAR 7/2 who has to be on my shortlist of possible winners, the latter may need the run for fitness and may also be better over a shorter trip, DARING GUEST 13/2 who has a chance if able to reproduce a Chelmsford time here but I'm not sure it can but I will probably have a covering bet on this one just in case, NEZAR 14/1 who is my top rated on recent c/d times which is always a positive and will be my main bet in this race that I think have a chance of winning this and I will be dutching all three of them to hopefully make a profit. 

Phoenix Star 7/2 1 Point win 4th -1pt
Nezar 14/1 1 Point Each Way 6th -2pt
Daring Guest 13/2 ½ Point win 7th -1/2pt

Lay bets: Madrinho +1pt, Superiority +1pt) 

Total on the day -1 1/2pts

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