I will not make any bones about it but this race is dire even for a class 6 affair, I can see 2 and possibly 3 horses that could set the pace, Kingsley Klarion is the possibly as it can lead but only usually does so when nothing else wants to and I doubt that will happen here but hasn't shown much recently time wise, there is a few others that have not shown much time wise recently, Katelli would have a chance if able to reproduce its Tapeta time on this surface but is still a maiden on the AW after 12 runs, Knockout Blow could go well but can struggle to stay the trip with a fast early pace which i think might happen here plus the jockey is 0-12 for the stable, Englishman has a trainer record of 0-11 at this course and the jockey is also 0-11 for the stable, Perfect Symphony has a time from Chelmsford last year that would make it my top rated but the trainers win record of 1-38 and the jockeys 0-13 makes me think they have another race in mind but it has won over this c/d from 8 attempts, Thaki has no surface form to its name but has slow times over this distance at both Wolverhampton and Newcastle and would need to improve for the surface switch to win this race, Blue Cable has run twice over this distance on this surface but time wise produced nothing that registered on my figures and its best time which comes from Wolverhampton isn't good enough to make my top 4 ratings, I will be siding with THREE CARD TRICK 16/1 (EW) who hasn't run here before but what caught my attention was the apprentice jockeys win record for the stable having 31% on all the stables runners and 33% on the older horses, it does have a decent time Newcastle and an even better time from Chelmsford which would make it competitive and at the price i have to give it as an each way wager.
Three Card Trick 16/1 4th -2pts
Total - 2pts
LINGFIELD 2.30
Only 6 runners and to be honest on all known form it looks a one horse race because if SWISS PRIDE 6/5 reproduces its best speed figure it would win a shade cosily but I am quite sure it will be the hot favourite and might even be an odds on shot, it has won 5 and placed in 4 from its 11 c/d runs, I would look to see if there's any value in doing the forecast and only the bottomweight Evasive Power wouldn't be on my list as the 2nd placed horse, May Remain races prominently and could hassle the selection for the early lead and could do enough to hold on for 2nd place as long as it doesn't push too hard to stay with favourite, Apollinaire is my 2nd top rated but that time was recorded at Wolverhampton and hasn't run over this distance on this surface, Last Page and Cappananty Con are only separated by 1lb but the former's time comes from 2020 whilst the latter did record its best time this year but it looks likely to be the 2nd favourite so maybe not any value in doing the forecast, I will back the selection if its not odds on but would leave it alone if it wasn't of value.
Swiss Pride 9/4 2nd -1pt
Total on the day -3pts
No comments:
Post a Comment