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Thursday, 10 June 2021

3:10 Chepstow Racing Tips (11th June)

CHEPSTOW 3.10 

GREY GALLEON 7/1 can be held up or track the leaders but is only 4th top rated on my unique speed figures but could make the frame if others falter.

AIRSHOW 3/1 has only won once from 19 races on turf and that win was in 2017 so I will look to lay this one if a single figure price.

BEZZAS LAD 9/2 this one is my 3rd top rated and i think it will be the most likely one to set the pace and could do enough from the front to at least make the frame. 

GILT EDGE 11/2 comes out 2nd top on recent, 2020/21, times it does have a faster time but that time seems to be a bit of a one off, it could go well and may make the frame.

SWISSAL 11/1 has only shown poor form on its recent runs and races as though further would suit it better and an old time on good to firm going was still relatively slow.

I'M WATCHING YOU 8/1 is my top rated on recent c/d times and usually stays on strongly at the finish of a race over this distance.

PASTFACT 7/1 has only slow recent times and it looks as though it may prefer a shorter trip or maybe a slower surface or maybe both so one I will look to lay. 

DIAMOND COTTAGE 7/1 has only slow times over this distance on good or good to firm ground and another for my list of possible lays. 

SUMMARY: Not a race to be betting too heavily in but I will side with my top rated and have a small bet on I'M WATCHING YOU 8/1 the jockey is making his debut for the stable but they only have a 9% win ratio at this course which is another reason for keeping stakes low. 

I'm Watching You 14/1 3rd -1pt

Total -1pt

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CHEPSTOW 3.45 

BELLEVARDE 10/3 is a front running type and has a time from 2020 that would make it 2nd top spot on my own figures and the jockey is 1-6 on the stables older horses. 

EQUALLY FAST 10/3 can be versatile with its racing tactics and is a course and distance winner but it needs to improve time wise to win this race. 

FLIP MODE 3/1 won last time out beating 3 of today's rivals but isn't weighted as well here and the top 2 in this race could reverse that form. 

TWILIGHTING 13/2 lightly raced type but hasn't even made the frame in its 6 runs on turf and maybe better when racing over a longer distance. 

SHOW ME THE BUBBLY 28/1 comes out 3rd best on my figures using a time recorded at Bath last year and can be held up or track the front runners. 

AQUADABRA 5/1 is actually my top rated but its best times are recorded on good ground and doesn't want the going to be good to firm so maybe this wont be a suitable race for it. 

OH SO NICE 10/1 has only slow times over this distance and poor recent form altogether despite being known to lead races. 

SUMMARY: The top weight *BELLEVARDE 10/3 is a likely pacesetter and is weighted in this race to reverse form with Flip Mode who beat it in its last race, Aquadabra would be dangerous if the going was good and not good to firm so I will have to wait to see exactly how fast the going is before betting but at this moment in time I will be having just the one bet in this race.

*NR

Total on the day -1pt

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