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Sunday 4 July 2021

3:20 Ayr Racing Tips (5th July)

AYR 3.20 

TROUBADOR 13/2 its best time from Newmarket in 2020 wouldn't put it in my top 4 ratings nor would its better time from 2019. 

BLACK FRIDAY 13/2 has only slow times at this distance mainly because it doesn't seem to like fast good to firm ground.

MUSIC SOCIETY 4/1 has a time from Chester on 12th June which seems a bit of a fluke time but will be trying to stay on at the finish.

LOOK OUT LOUIS 7/2 has an even better time from Chester race on 12-06 but this is one of only two known front runners in the race and could be dangerous with an easy lead.

PEARL OF QATAR 11/2 is my 3rd top rating but could be top if those Chester times are a fluke and this one runs on strongly at the finish.

CALL ME GINGER 8/1 comes out in 5th best on my overall figures but could make the frame if the Chester times falter.

KRAKEN POWER 6/1 a 3yo who could try to lead but might not be fast enough to beat Look Out Louis for the lead and time wise would need to improve to win this race.

DICK DATCHERY 11/1 is my 4th top rated using a c/d time from 2020 and its best this year is only 1lb lower.

SUMMARY: If I ignore what is looking like a bit of a fluke time at Chester where both Look Out Loius and Music Society might have been flattered but I will have to have a smaller bet on the former just in case it is capable of leading all the way but I will also be backing PEARL OF QATAR 11/2 who looks the value call in the race and it should be finishing fast in the closing stages and the trainer has had 3 wins from 7 runners in the last 14 days which shows a stable in tip top form. 

Pearl Of Qatar 6/1 5th -1pt

Total -1pt

AYR 4.25 

LOMU 7/2 usually likes to track the leaders and time wise it comes out co 2nd top rated using a time from Newmarket last time out but has poor trainer/jockey stats.

GET BOOSTING 8/1 time wise this one will need to improve to win this race and I am not sure this course will suit it.

JOHN KIRKUP 7/2 another that would need to improve to win this race and that's perhaps because it doesn't seem to like good to firm ground.

BE PROUD 3/1 is another co 2nd top rated which it recorded over this course and distance plus the jockey booking looks a positive.

SALUTI 4/1 has decent trainer and jockey stats both 15% win ratios it is co 2nd top rated using a 2020 time but races as though further would suit it better.

SOAPY'S SISTER 12/1 is a 3yo but has only a slow time at this distance on good going and may prefer a longer trip to show its best. 

ECONOMIC CRISIS 8/1 the trainer is 0-5 with its recent runners but this one is top rated but that time was done in lower class race so may be outclassed in this race.

SUMMARY: A lack of known front runners is always a problem, I will be backing BE PROUD 3/1 as the trainer is in good form with a 30% win ratio with 6 wins from 20 runners in the last 14 days and it seems to be the strongest finisher in the field then there is the jockeys 19% win ratio on the stables older horses so it has to be the one I back.

Be Proud 3/1 4th -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

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