2:40 Yarmouth Racing Tips (26th April)

YARMOUTH 2.40 

All low grade class 5 races today which doesn't inspire confidence on turf as consistency cannot be applied to many if any at this level, I'm not sure what will set the pace but if i had to guess I would go with Palifico who has done it before when nothing else wanted to lead and could be dangerous if leading here, if there isn't a fast early pace then Special Mayson may find the trip too short for it while Mehmo could struggle to stay if there is a fast early pace, my top rated horse is I AM A DREAMER 14/1 who might be worth a small each way interest, if not big enough to back each way then probably best to leave the race alone, somethings that does put me off backing this horse is the trainers 1-56 stats at this course and the jockeys 0-4 for this stable plus its been 23 runners and 71 days since the stables last winner. 

I Am A Dreamer 7/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

AYR 6.15 

Just 7 runners for this race with Kraken Power the most likely one to set the early pace and being my 3rd top rated it could go well but will need to improve a few spots if others run to their best to win this race, I could look to lay four of the runners if of value to do so, I've got Shalaa Asker as my top rated but this horse seems to run ok without winning as its had 12 races on grass being placed in half of them but no wins which is off-putting also the jockeys 1-19 record for the stable doesn't inspire confidence so I will put my faith on the top weight PEARL OF QATAR 9/2 who is dropped in class to run in this race and has won before when returning after a break, with the trainers 27% win ratio at this course and the jockeys 21% win ratio for the stable it looks like connections are expecting a big run in this race and getting it back to winning ways. 

Pearl Of Qatar 9/1 1st +9pts 

Total +9pts  

AYR 8.00 

Down to a measly 6 runners in this race but there isn't what I would call a natural front running type in the race although JORDAN ELECTRICS 12/1 has led before over six furlongs but may not usually be able to lead over this distance but if nothing else wants to lead then it could lead all the way, it usually finds this distance too short on good to firm going, as it is my joint top rated along with ALBEGONE 4/1 who usually stays on at the finish over this distance and this pair are only rated 2lbs higher than ROSE BANDIT 5/2 who won last time 10 days ago so we know this one is in tip top form, I was thinking of dutching these 3 runners and will do so if its possible when I see the betting for the race but maybe the way to make a profit from this race is by laying something and my candidate to lay is the bottom weight Spanish Angel 5/2 who races as though further would suit it better and the early pace may not be quick in this race so it might not suit it and the trainers strike rate is only 7% and the jockeys win ratio for today's stable is only 5%.

Albegone 6/1 1st +6pts

Rose Bandit 5/2 4th -1pt 

Jordan Electrics 12/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Spanish Angel +1pt 

Total +5pts

Total on the day +13pts

1:35 Newmarket Racing Tips (31st July)

NEWMARKET 1.35 

A poor turnout of just 6 runners luckily there is 2 known front running types in the race, Adaay To Remember and Al Simmo but both would need to improve their times to win this race although the former is a 3yo so could still improve and the latter is my 4th top rated horse, I will look to lay Pornstar Martini if its a single figure price, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses in, Princess Power who recorded its best time back in 2019 and Restless Endeavour who recorded its best time last time out when winning at Thirsk but I am hoping PEARL OF QATAR 7/1 is ready to run its best and a repeat of its time at Hamilton earlier this year would see it winning this race a shade cosily. 

Pearl Of Qatar 7/1 4th -1pt

Total -1pt

HAMILTON 6.20 

Another poor turnout of 6 runners but there's is 2 known front running types in Tanasoq who is better over a shorter distance so one i will look to lay as I am hoping the pace will be set by Bossipop who is my 3rd top rated, my other lay will be Jordan Electircs who did win last time out but in a slow run race, which might have flattered it, and I doubt will happen here with 2 pacesetters in the race,I have joint top rated horses, Gunmetal finished 3rd last time out in a slow run affair and its best time comes from 2020 at Ripon and it doesn't want the going to be too fast, I will be hoping that *STRONSAY 18/1 will appreciate the fast early pace and then stay on the strongest at the finish. 

*NR

HAMILTON 6.50

An 8k class 3 conditions race and a poor turnout of just 5 runners, both Soldiers Minute and Emeraaty Ana may be better when racing over a longer distance and the latter is my 3rd top rated sol should be staying on at the finish, El Astronaute has been known to lead but hasn't shown much time wise since 2019 and may be on a downward spiral as age catches up with it and one I will look to lay, my 2nd top rated is Dubai Station who likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish but i will be hoping that my top rated horse QUE AMORA 2/1 can set the early pace and then hold on for the victory.

Que Amora 5/1 3rd -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts 

3:20 Ayr Racing Tips (5th July)

AYR 3.20 

TROUBADOR 13/2 its best time from Newmarket in 2020 wouldn't put it in my top 4 ratings nor would its better time from 2019. 

BLACK FRIDAY 13/2 has only slow times at this distance mainly because it doesn't seem to like fast good to firm ground.

MUSIC SOCIETY 4/1 has a time from Chester on 12th June which seems a bit of a fluke time but will be trying to stay on at the finish.

LOOK OUT LOUIS 7/2 has an even better time from Chester race on 12-06 but this is one of only two known front runners in the race and could be dangerous with an easy lead.

PEARL OF QATAR 11/2 is my 3rd top rating but could be top if those Chester times are a fluke and this one runs on strongly at the finish.

CALL ME GINGER 8/1 comes out in 5th best on my overall figures but could make the frame if the Chester times falter.

KRAKEN POWER 6/1 a 3yo who could try to lead but might not be fast enough to beat Look Out Louis for the lead and time wise would need to improve to win this race.

DICK DATCHERY 11/1 is my 4th top rated using a c/d time from 2020 and its best this year is only 1lb lower.

SUMMARY: If I ignore what is looking like a bit of a fluke time at Chester where both Look Out Loius and Music Society might have been flattered but I will have to have a smaller bet on the former just in case it is capable of leading all the way but I will also be backing PEARL OF QATAR 11/2 who looks the value call in the race and it should be finishing fast in the closing stages and the trainer has had 3 wins from 7 runners in the last 14 days which shows a stable in tip top form. 

Pearl Of Qatar 6/1 5th -1pt

Total -1pt

AYR 4.25 

LOMU 7/2 usually likes to track the leaders and time wise it comes out co 2nd top rated using a time from Newmarket last time out but has poor trainer/jockey stats.

GET BOOSTING 8/1 time wise this one will need to improve to win this race and I am not sure this course will suit it.

JOHN KIRKUP 7/2 another that would need to improve to win this race and that's perhaps because it doesn't seem to like good to firm ground.

BE PROUD 3/1 is another co 2nd top rated which it recorded over this course and distance plus the jockey booking looks a positive.

SALUTI 4/1 has decent trainer and jockey stats both 15% win ratios it is co 2nd top rated using a 2020 time but races as though further would suit it better.

SOAPY'S SISTER 12/1 is a 3yo but has only a slow time at this distance on good going and may prefer a longer trip to show its best. 

ECONOMIC CRISIS 8/1 the trainer is 0-5 with its recent runners but this one is top rated but that time was done in lower class race so may be outclassed in this race.

SUMMARY: A lack of known front runners is always a problem, I will be backing BE PROUD 3/1 as the trainer is in good form with a 30% win ratio with 6 wins from 20 runners in the last 14 days and it seems to be the strongest finisher in the field then there is the jockeys 19% win ratio on the stables older horses so it has to be the one I back.

Be Proud 3/1 4th -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

5:45 Ayr Racing Tips (8th June)

AYR 5.45 

JAARYLAH 4/1 hasn't any form at this distance on turf and i think it might be better when running over a longer distance and has poorish trainer 1-6 and jockey 1-15 stats so maybe worth laying. 

PEARL OF QATAR 11/8 has good trainer 33% and jockey 17% win stats and it usually stays on strongly at the business end of a race admittedly its a poor price. 

NEVER IN PARIS 9/2 has only slow times and maybe because it doesn't do its best on good to firm ground and the jockey has poor stats of 0-6 on the stables older horses so one to lay if the going is good to firm. 

AVEBURY 7/1 its one run over this distance on good ground resulted in a slow time and may be another that doesn't really like fast going, not enough data to be confident enough to lay it. 

AMAZING ALBA 14/1 has only slow times over this distance and seems much better when racing over shorter distances would be a lay if a single figure price. 

ORIENTAL LILLY 8/1 hasn't shown much since 2019 where it recorded its best time but it hasn't won on turf since 2018 which is off-putting. 

SUMMARY: I am not sure what will lead in this race which always means that my stakes will be kept on the low side of things, if I go back to 2018 times then Oriental Lilly would be my top rated but hasn't shown much time wise recently but I will be siding with PEARL OF QATAR 11/8 who is my 2nd top rated and that is using a time from this year an also has good trainer/jockey stats which makes me think the connections are expecting it to get back to winning ways in this race. 

Pearl Of Qatar 11/8 1st +1.375pts (Betfair SP - )

Total +1.375pts

Another day, another winner. Admittedly, this was a favourite but a profit is a profit. You may have wanted to visit France and experience a little Parisian culture or just get stuck in at casino france and spend out with your Euros. 

I've got a couple of mates who emigrated to New Zealand. It's meant to be a beautiful place. The closest I've got to the place yet is visiting newzealandcasinos casino and I filled my pockets with loot.   

AYR 6.45 

MODULAR MAGIC 9/4 usually likes to track the leaders but its run on good to form ground back in 2019 resulted in it not even registering on my figures but I am sure its capable of better but for its 1st run of the year I will leave it alone. 

SOUND OF IONA 6/1 usually held up for a late run but time wise it would need to improve to win this race so may not catch the leader/s in this race. 

PAVERS PRIDE 5/1 a natural front running type and is my 3rd top rated and could go well if allowed an easy lead and has decent trainer/jockey stats. 

TANASOQ 5/2 is a versatile type when it comes to racing tactics and has good jockey stats and is strong at the business end of its races and is my joint top rated. 

MAJOR PUSEY 4/1 another versatile type and is my other joint top rated but the apprentice riding this one is 0-5 for the stable which is a little off-putting. 

SUMMARY: Any of the bottom 3 in the handicap could lead here but Paver's Pride is the more natural front runner in the field, I think the top weight Modular Magic may need this run for fitness, the jockey booking on TANASOQ 5/2 who is joint top rated on my figures makes it the one I will be betting.

Tanasoq 11/4 2nd -1pt 

Total on the day +0.375pts 

3:35 Catterick Racing Tips (4th June)

CATTERICK 3.35

The early pace is likely to be set by Redrosezorro and this one could go well if allowed an easy lead but maybe not enough to hold for the win, I would look to lay Seas Of Elzaam 8/1 if it is a single figure price as it may need further to shine and Praxeology 9/2 who doesn't appear to like real fast good to firm going and with a fast early pace can struggle to stay the distance, Music Society would be top rated if I used its best time from 2019 but hasn't been near that level lately, North Wind and Freedom have more recent, 2020/21, times that would make them competitive in this race but my money will be riding on PEARL OF QATAR 6/1 who usually likes to track the leaders and then run on strongly at the finish and the jockey booking makes me think that connections are expecting it to get back to winning ways here. 

Pearl Of Qatar 6/1 4th -1pt

Total -1pt

GOODWOOD 6.30 

A very competitive race for a class 5 affair but I would look to lay Siberian Night who may need further on fast ground, Sir Rodneyredblood could be the one to set the pace and could prove troublesome if allowed an easy lead and it could even do enough to lead all the way but i have 6 other horses that i also think could win this race and if I stuck with my top rating then Amathus and Under Curfew would be the selections but both have poor jockey stats which puts me off a little, Storm Melody, Physics and Iconic Knight are others that also could be in the mix at the finish so this race might be best left alone but if pushed I would go with MADRINHO 10/1 who has a decent speed figure, so looks the value call in the race,but it is the jockey booking that catches my eye with a 31% win ratio for the stable so I am hoping an each way wager will pay dividends. 

Madeihno 10/1 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

BATH 7.40 

A class 4 dash with 9 runners but surprisingly only 1 known front runner amongst them, Many A Star 13/2 might be worth laying as it might need further to show its best and this race might not be run to suit it, the 3yo Asadjumeirah 7/2 is 2nd top rated on 2021 times but drops to 4th on overall figures but could be able to improve further, Zulu Zander has a time from 2020 that makes it my 2nd top rated on all my figures but the jockeys 0-14 on the stables older horses makes me think this one has another target in mind, the top weight Beyond Equal is my 3rd top rated on all figures sing a 2020 time from Windsor but I will be backing UNION ROSE 20/1 who is 3rd top on just 2021 times but its best from 2020 makes it my top rated and it has good, 17%, trainer stats but the jockey has a 25% win ratio for the stable so I'm hoping they are good pointers, it looks the value call in this race and at the price has to be given as an each way punt. 

Union Rose 20/1 EW 6th -2pts 

Total -2pts

DONCASTER 7.53 

There is a couple of front runners in this race so I doubt either can win this race, I would look to lay Treble Treble 7/1 who has only slow times and doesn't really seem to like good to firm ground, I wouldn't put anyone off backing Blackheath, Big Les or Athollblair Boy who all have pieces of form that could see them being concerned in the finish but I am hoping that GHATHANFAR 11/2 from stall 11 can track a front runner housed next door in stall 10 and gain an advantageous early position from which to attack at the business end of the race and the jockey has a decent 15% win ratio on the stables older horses.

6:00 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (11th February)

NEWCASTLE 6.00 

Just the 7 runners with a couple of front runners, Outrage who is only 5th top on my figures and Another Angel who might be outclassed here but it could be in the race to set it up for its stablemate, I would look to lay both (Kind Review and North Wind) BUT only if they are single figure prices anything bigger and they would not be of value to lay, El Hombre and Be Proud could go well but with only 2 places up for grabs i wouldn't be betting each way, my money will be riding on *TATHMEEN 15/2 who usually likes to track the leaders and then run on at the finish and this race could suit it. 

*NR 

Lay bets: Kind Review -2pts, North Wind +1pt

Total: -1pt

NEWCASTLE 6.30 

Ten runners entered here with just one known front runner, once again I will lay 2 runners as long as they are single figure prices, anything bigger isn't value, (Fendale + Puchita) the latter runs an ok race plenty of times but its win are few and far between and usually stays on as though further would suit it better, Rebel Redemption has been known to lead when nothing else wanted to and then sets a slower than usual pace but I doubt that will happen here and might be worth adding to the list of possible lays, Medicine Jack, Good Night Mr Tom, and Nick Vedder, my 4th,3rd and 2nd top ratings, could battle to make the frame and the latter might be worth considering as a covering bet for the selection if that one fades, as it could do best of those coming from off the pace but I will be giving one more chance to PEARL OF QATAR 4/1 mainly because it could lead here without being pressed from the off and hopefully it can hold on for the win after a hattrick of 2nd place finishes. 

Pearl Of Qatar 4/1 2nd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Fendale - 3.5pts, Puchita +1pt

Total: -3.5pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

Only 5 of the 11 runners have recorded speed figures on my graphs and I would look to lay 5 of the field but I doubt any of them will be a single figure price in this race, Glorious Charmer needs to improve time wise to win this race and its 2 previous runs here have resulted in slow times, Paddy Power is 2nd top rated if I go back to its best time from 2019 but has been in poor form lately, the 5lb claim off Kilconquhar would move it to joint top spot but the apprentice is 0-2 for the stables older horses but that isn't enough to be sure whether its a negative or a positive booking, GIGI BEACH 9/2 is joint top rated on a 2020 time and its time from this year is 6lb lower but only 1lb off top spot on just 2021 times, ROCKLEY POINT 5/1 is top rated on just 2021 times so has to be respected and it is the only known front runner in the race so could have every chance but I have to add *SHAMAROUSKI 7/1 who has very good trainer stats and good jockey stats, it hasn't run over this distance on this surface before but did run well over 7 furlongs at Wolverhampton where it faded inside the final furlong so this might suit it well and i will go with dutching all 3 selections.

*Apologies as Eric detailed this race as 7:30. 

*NR

Gigi Beach 9/2 3rd (-1pt)

Rockley Point 5/1 6th (-1pt)

Total: -2pts 

Total on the day:  -6.5pts

1:35 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay (7th February)

SOUTHWELL 1.35 

I can find two runners who like to lead, I can find 2 runners, Pedestal and Essaka that I would like to lay but i expect they will all be double prices so of no value to lay the win part but might be worth laying not to make the frame, I can find 4 horses that could go well here, Dark Side Dream who comes out joint 2nd best on recent c/d speed figures but the race it won last time out had a slow early pace and the 2nd from that day could reverse the form in this race and is only joint 4th top on overall figures and in my opinion poor value at 9/4, Blackcurrant 9/1 has only produced slow times from its two previous runs over this c/d but the jockey is 2-4 for the stable so maybe they are expecting a good run here and could make the frame, Red Allure 6/1 ran well when finishing 2nd last time out but that was a slow run race so the form might not be reliable but is a possible front runner and could do enough to make the frame but the trainer is 0-26 at this course while the jockey does well on the stables older horses but isn't an each way price, Bluella 6/1 comes out 2nd best overall and that is using a 2020 time but didn't run well in its last race while it is a c/d winner which is always a positive and could make the frame here if on a going day but not an each way price in my eyes, my money will be riding on ARCAVALLO 7/2 who led last time out until caught and beaten by today's top weight, it is 3lbs better off here and may have got the fractions wrong when leading in that race and if going slightly faster here, which it might be forced to do by Red Allure it could this time thwart the late run of the top weight and hold on for victory. 

SOUTHWELL 4.35 

For a class 6 affair this is a nice looking race, firstly I will mention (Qaaraat 3/1) who has won over this distance but not at this course and it might find it a bit too far on this slower surface and i will look to lay it and i think it will be to the fore of the betting, there is 2 more I would look to lay but I expect they will outsiders in this race, Ustaith a previous c/d winner could try to set the pace and if? getting to the front from stall 7 it could do enough to make the frame but is 11/2 value for an each way bet, in my opinion the answer is no but i know some people do bet each way at the price as you get your money back or a very small profit if making the frame, my 3rd top rated is Sir Rodneyredblood 9/2 using a Lingfield time but its recent c/d time is good enough for 2nd top spot but thats only good enough for 4th top overall, Barrington 7/1 has a time from Lingfield in 2020 that would make it my top rated by 2lbs, it hasn't run over this c/d before so not sure what to expect and from stall 8 it might need some luck in running, I will be pinning my hopes on PEARL OF QATAR 3/1 who is my top rated on recent times and only 2lbs below top spot then add on that its versatile with its racing tactics which does include leading and from the stall 3 draw i am hoping that will the the tactics deployed here and if getting to the front and control of the rails it ought to be hard to catch, the trainers record is 2-9 and the jockey has a 27% win rate for the stable so it looks like they are expecting a big run and hopefully one place better than its last two runs.

3:30 Lingfield Racing Tips & Lay Bets (21st January)

LINGFIELD 3.30 

A field of 8 and one known front runner in POWER OVER ME 3/1 and its time from Chelmsford makes it rated 71 on my figures and could feasibly lead all the way, Madrinho is also rated 71 but that is using a 2018 figure, I've got 3 runners all rated 72, Knockout Blow would move to top spot on its own with the apprentices 5lb claim but its best form comes in class 6 races, Shamshon gets its rating from 2019 and hasn't been as good time wise in 2020 or this month, I will also be backing DESERT LAND 6/4 who recorded its 72 rating on its run last time out when winning and could follow up here but i will back them both to cover the angles, they are the first two in the betting which doesn't surprise me and with my ratings making it so close my stakes will be kept low. 

Power Over Me 3/1 1st (+3pts) (Betfair SP 4.10 )

Desert Land 7/4 5th (-1pt)

Total: +2pts

LINGFIELD 4.00 

Not the greatest of races and then add on that its an apprentice jockeys race muddies the waters, i will look to lay (Everkyllachy 7/2) if its a single figure price as it may not stay the distance, Top Boy can find this trip a bit too far if there's a fast early pace and that might happen here but the trainer has a good 18% win ratio in apprentice races, Storm Melody would be top rated if i used its best time from Chelmsford but its only run over this c/d resulted in a low speed figure, Our Man In Havana could go well and is versatile with its racing tactics so maybe worth an each way wager if of value but my money will be riding on DREAMBOAT ANNIE 7/1 who could lead all the way in this race as it is the only natural front running sort in the entrants. 

Dreamboat Annie 11/1 4th (-1pt)

Lay bet: Everkyllachy +1pt

Total: 0pts

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

Red Pike who is a 10yo seems to be on a downward spiral and has shown nothing worthwhile for awhile now but the 11yo LUCKY LODGE 11/1 is still going strong and has been found a decent chance to get back to winning ways here and at the price its worth an each way flutter, maybe its stablemate Tahmeen 3/1 will lead and set the race up for it and Tathmeen might even do enough from the front to make the frame but isn't an each Way price, I will also be backing PEARL OF QATAR 2/1 in this race, it is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and the jockey booking looks a positive one and comes out top on my figures. 

Pearl Of Qatar 2/1 2nd (-1pt)

Lucky Lodge 11/1 4th (-1pt)

Total: -2pts

NEWCASTLE 7.30 

Another race where I will be backing 2 horses to cover the angles, El Hombre 4/1 is capable on its day but the trainer is 1-40 with its older horses at this course and the jockey is 0-14 which is enough to put me off its chances especially at the price, North Wind 12/1 might need a longer trip and the jockeys 0-19 record on the stables older horses makes me wonder if this one will be expected to win but it is a biggish price, Shoot To Kill could try to lead from stall 2 but it might be a bit outclassed at this level, I think/hope the early pace will be set by OUTRAGE 4/1 who has on 4 races been placed in 4 races from its 9 runs over this c/d and could possibly lead all the way here but I will also be backing BIRKENHEAD 13/2 who likes to track the leaders and from stall 1 should get a good early position from which to attack nearing the finish and the jockey does well for the stable.

Outrage 4/1 2nd (-1pt)

Birkenhead 12/1 7th (-1pt)

Total: - 2pts

Total on the day: -2pts

1:15 Southwell Racing Tips (7th January)

SOUTHWELL 1.15 

Only 7 runners but 3 of them have been known to lead before, I will look to lay (Giogiobbo 4/1) who may need further to shine, my 4th top rated is Duke Of Firenze when taking in the apprentices 7lb allowance, Dark Shot can lead but is versatile with its racing tactics and comes out 3rd on my figures but the jockey does do well for the stable, I think the pace will be set by SLOWMO 5/2 who is my top rated so could possibly lead all the way but it is only 1lb better than Thegreatestshowman 5/2 who is being ridden by an apprentice who has won once from two rides for the stable, so it should be close at the finish but I will stick with my top rated horse. 

Slowmo 4/1 2nd (-1pt)

Lay bet: Giogiobbo +1pt 

Total: 0pts

SOUTHWELL 2.45 

Down to 6 runners for this sprint which is very very competitive and very hard to narrow down to a confident conclusion, I will exclude (Dirchill 4/1 + Ginger Max 15/2) and look to lay them as long as they stay at a single figure price, Samovar is 4th top rated on 2020 times but a 2019 time moves it to 3rd spot overall, EXCESSABLE 7/2 is 3rd best on recent times but 4th overall but has good trainer/jockey stats so it looks as though the connections are expecting it to win, PEARL OF QATAR 5/1 sits in 2nd top spot and oly 1lb below top spot and its another with good trainer/jockey stats so another that they are hoping to win with, PUCHITA 8/1 is top rated and the 3rd one with good trainer/jockey stats and dutching the 3 selections looks the best solution or maybe just rely on the two lays, let the betting will be the deciding factor. For which way you choose to go. 

Excessable 9/2 -1pt

Pearl Of Qatar 5/1 4th (-1pt)

Puchita 12/1 5th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Dirchill +1pt, Ginger Max +1pt

Total: -1pt

SOUTHWELL 3.45 

Not a bad looking apprentice jockeys race, I will look to lay (Lorna Cole 11/2 + Gossip 4/1 + Tilsworth Rose 11/2) as long as they stay at a single figure price, Moveonup is my 2nd top rated on 2020 c/d times and being a front runner it could do enough to make the frame, RED STRIPES 9/2 is another front runner and is my top rated and that is using a 2020 time and could lead all the way here but I expect it will be at the fore of the betting if not favourite, I will be backing it but I will also have a bet on the bottom weight LEO MINOR 14/1 who hasn't ran over this c/d before but does have a fast time from Chelmsford in 2020 and this ones trainer has a 27% win ratio in apprentice races and hopefully it will be an each way price.

Red Stripes 9/2 2nd (-1pt)

Leo Minor 8/1 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Gossip -4pts, Lorna Cole +1pt, Tilsworth Rose +1pt

Total: -4pts

Total on the day:  -5pts

2:15 Southwell Racing Tips (17th December)

SOUTHWELL 2.15 

Slowmo might not like this surface so a lay, Arzaak is my 3rd top rated so could make the frame, Precious Plum has led before but outside my top 4 ratings, Suwaan not shown much time wise for quite awhile so a lay, Loulin just outside my top 4 ratings, Red Stripes could make all and my 2nd top rated, George Thomas 4th top on my list could make the frame if others falter, Gossip poor recent form and may prefer further, Tan outside my top 4 ratings and may like further, Bluella top on my speed figures and will b staying on at the finish. 

SUMMARY: There's a few I could lay if they are of any value to lay, I will be backing two horses, firstly there's RED STRIPES 13/2 who could possibly lead here and then be hard to catch and is only 1lb below BLUELLA 9/1 who is my top rated so this one would need a near perfect ride to catch the leader but its so close on my figures I cannot really split them.

Bluella 9/1 4th (-1pt)

Red Stripes 13/2 5th (-1pt) 

Total -2pts 

SOUTHWELL 5.45 

Spring Romance is in good form but mainly in relatively slow run affairs only 4th top on my figures, Little Red Socks hasn't any course form and needs to improve for the switch to this surface, Napping only slow c/d times and this course doesn't seem to suit it so one to lay, Bartat a known front runner but maybe better over further and not quick enough to lead here, Pearl Of Qatar versatile with its racing tactics and is my 2nd top rated, Antagonize no distance form on the AW not sure what to expect so no bet or lay, Dirchill slow time from a sole c/d run, could try to lead but is 0-16 on the AW not sure this surface will suit, The Golden Cue my 3rd top rated on a c/d time its win last time out was a slow run affair could make the frame, Archimedes another one that likes to lead and stall 2 looks ideal plus its my top rated, Pilgrims Pursuit only shown poor form recently, Alqaab also poor recent form. 

SUMMARY: A few I could lay depending on the betting but as for my bets to win this race I will again be backing two horses as they are too close to split, ARCHIMEDES 18/1(EW) who is a front runner is my top rated and also has stall 1 so could lead all the way and at the price has to be an each way bet as it has been known to bounce back to form without warning before, it is only 1lb above PEARL OF QATAR 7/1 and this one has very good trainer/jockey stats and from stall 4 it could lead or at least contest the lead from the off or sit on the rails just behind the leader ready to pounce.

 

Pearl Of Qatar 7/1 4th (-1pt)

Archimedes 40/1 8th (-2pts)

Total: -3pts 

Total on the day: -5pts