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Wednesday, 6 October 2021

5:00 Chelmsford City Racing Tips (7th October)

CHELMSFORD 5.00 

A five furlong dash with 11 of which 6 have been known to lead and 5 of the runners are also 3yo’s and 4 of those 3yo’s are also front running types so this will be a fast and furious affair and I think it will be won from the front, Sir Rodneyredblood 9/1 may need further to shine and could be one to lay if a single figure price, Hyde Park Barracks 5/1 has only slow times from Ireland and I'm not sure this fast surface will suit it but am I sure enough to lay it, if its backed before the off I would leave it alone, Nubough 12/1 and Lucky Ava 5/1 are capable of producing fast times but usually in lower class races than this one so may struggle in this class 4 affair, my money will be riding on TRUE HERO 5/1 who likes to lead and has the plum stall 1 draw so it could gain control on the rails which is always a bonus and then prove hard to catch and this one has very good jockey stats with a win ratio of 44% on the stables older horses. 

True Hero 5/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets: Sir Rodneyredblood -8pts, Hyde Park Barracks +1pt

Total -8pts

CHELMSFORD 6.00 

Twelve runners here over 6 furlongs and 4 runners that have been known to lead before, the 2 more natural front runners, I might well look to lay Libertine Belle 13/2 who has only produced slow times on this surface from 3 runs, one here and two at Kempton, and would need to improve on its best time which it recorded at Wolverhampton, Driftwood and Rebel Redemption are both drawn in double figure stalls so will need to get away really fast to get out and across to the rails but I think they both may actually struggle to lead with the make-up of this race and both would need to improve time wise to win this race, the 3yo Lion King is my 3rd top rated and is usually staying on at the finish over this distance and could stay on and make the frame but may need a degree of luck in running from stall 9, COME ON GIRL 14/1 (EW) is my top rated if I use its best time from 2020 but I'm not sure if that time can be trusted as it might have been towed along in a fast run race but I think it might be worth a small each way punt if a double figure price but it will be a small bet, I am hoping that ARAIFJAN 11/2 who has the stall 1 draw who has been known to lead but doesn't have to, can either lead or sit about a length behind the leader/s ready to pounce in the closing stages and this one is another with good jockey stats, 2-8 for all runners and 1-2 on the stables older horses.

Come On Girl 16/1 4th -2pts 
Araifan 11/2 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet: Libertine Bell +1pt 

Total -2pts

Total on the day -10pts 

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