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Thursday, 7 October 2021

7:30 Newcastle Racing Tips (8th October)

NEWCASTLE 7.30 Div1 + 8.00 Div2

 A poor class 6 Race split into 2 divisions and the lack of data to work with makes it virtually impossible to analyse the race properly, division 1 has 6 of the 11 runners which are either 3yo’s or lightly raced older horses and I haven't got 1 horse with a recordable time for this year while division 2 has 8 horses of the 11 being 3yo’s or lightly raced older horses although it does have one of my old favourite horses in the shape of Qaaraat who is likely to pop up without warning and finished 2nd last time out so could be ready to strike, it has won or made the frame in 34 of its 62 runs on the AW tracks so might be worth an each way interest if its a double figure price but now I've seen the betting (it was forecast to be 12/1) its only a 6/1 shot which to me doesn't represent value so I will leave the race alone. 

NEWCASTLE 8.30 

NIBRAS AGAIN 13/2 has a poor jockey stat of 1-17 and it usually stays on at the finish but maybe too late in this race but is my overall 4th top rated.

SPANISH ANGEL 14/1 is a hold up type but time wise it would need to improve to catch the leaders in this race but isn't value to lay at the price.

ROYDMOOR 10/1 has only a slow time from Wolverhampton to its name and would need to improve on its best speed figure from the turf to win this race so maybe worth laying if a single figure price.

STREET LIFE 7/2 has poor trainer stats and might be another that i will lay if of value to do so as it needs to improve time wise to win here and maybe the handicapper has caught up with it after its recent spell of good form winning 3 races on the trot and a 2nd place last time out.

CANFORD BAY 12/1 a possible pacesetter and all bar one of the early paced types are drawn high so that might be the deciding factor in this race and this one could make the frame.

GLORIOUS RIO 12/1 is my 2nd top rated on just 2021 times but only 6th top rated overall but could go well from stall 10 especially if the leaders tire nearing the finish and possibly make the frame. 

NEVER SAY NEVER 12/1 has only slow times on turf over this distance but has only had 5 runs to date so could improve but hopefully not in this race.

COLOMBE 9/1 this one doesn't make my top 6 ratings but its best time is from Wolverhampton so likes the surface and could improve in time. 

NAVAJO SPRING 20/1 has poor recent form and its best from last year leaves it quite a good few spots off those at the top of my list but not of value to lay. 

TANASOQ 14/1 this one may be better when it races over a longer distance and its best time points to it as well but I think it will be an outsider. 

SOMEWHERE SECRET 25/1 has poor recent form and it may also prefer a longer distance to show its true worth and stall 1 might not be ideal in this race. 

ANOTHER ANGEL 5/1 one that could lead this race and its in stall 11 and on my figures its my top rated using its best time from 2020. 

VAN GERWEN 10/1 drawn in stall 8 this is another one that likes to lead but its 0-5 on the AW surfaces does put me off a bit but it could make the frame. 

ROMAN ENCOUNTER 25/1 a possible pacesetter from stall 12 its also my top rated on just 2021 times and 3rd best overall so could go well. 

SUMMARY: Thinking that this race will be won from the front I will split my stakes between 2 horses, ROMAN ENCOUNTER 25/1 who is my top rated on just 2021 times and 3rd top overall and looking at the price it will be an each way wager on this horse ANOTHER ANGEL 5/1 who is 3rd best on this year and top on overall figures I will also look to lay Roydmoor 10/1 and Street Life 7/2 who both need to improve time wise and are predicted to be a single figure price if not then I will leave them alone.

Another Angel 10/1 5th -1pt 
Roman Encounter 25/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bets Roydmoor +1pt, Street Life +1pt

Total on the day 0pts

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