6:15 Chelmsford Racing Tips (4th May)

CHELMSFORD 6.15 

Only 7 runners for this race and I wonder if Jumira Bridge 15/2 will run after winning on Tuesday when recording a good rating on the Tapeta surface but hasn't been near that rating on this surface so not sure what to expect so I couldn't back or lay it. Almovodar Del Rio 8/1 may prefer a longer distance and one I will look to lay if its a single figure price, while Forca Brasil 10/3 hasn't shown much of merit time wise so might be another one to lay but am I missing something with this horse as a didn't expect it to be the favourite. Its fairly close between Company Minx and Epic Express in 3rd and 2nd top positions,my money will be riding on ARAIFJAN 6/1 who is my top rated and might be the one to set the pace to the race and if allowed to do so it could prove too hard to catch and lead all the way for the victory. 

Araifjan 6/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets: Almovodar Del Rio +1pt, Forca Brasil +1pt 

Total +1pt 

LINGFIELD 6.35 

Another 7 runner race and this time I can see 3 horses that have been known to lead before so it could be fast and furious for its class, I think Melly's Flyer 11/4 who is one of the front running trio I have mentioned, it is better on the Tapeta surface, it did win last time out which is in its favour but I will look to lay it on this Polytrack surface. Impeach another possible pacesetter is my 4th top rated so could go well from the front, Cashew 20/1 sits in 3rd top spot and is usually held up for a late run but may finish too late here to catch the leader but is way too big a price to be of value to lay, Bobby On The Beat 7/2 also won last time out but it has never won at this class 4 level so might get outclassed in this race but once again we know its in good form and that does count for a lot but might be worth laying if of value to do so, my money in this race will be riding on RECON MISSION 5/1 who is my top rated using a rating recorded in 2021 but did record a good rating at Wolverhampton last year which makes me think its capable of repeating its previous best and being the 3rd front running type in this race if it does get to the front then it could prove very hard to catch. 

Recon Mission 9/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets: Bobby On The Beat +1pt 

Total 0pts

LINGFIELD 7.05 

Down to just 6 runners for this class 6 dash with 2 known front running types but one of them Grandfathertom 11/2 might prefer the Tapeta surface as its best rating for a long time was recorded at Southwell last time out where I think it got towed along in a fast run race and that rating might prove to be a bit of a fluke result and I would look to lay it. Perfect Symphony 11/2 may be better when racing over a longer distance so might not be able to catch the leaders in this race so might be another worth laying if a short enough price nearer the off, I've got Therehegoes 9/4 marked down as a front running type and is my 2nd top rated so this one could be hard to catch but I do have SUANNI 9/1 rated higher and the apprentice jockeys 7lb allowance will help its cause and it usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger nearing the finish and the trainer does have a decent win ratio at this course.

Suanni 9/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bet bet: Grandfathertom -2.75pts 

Total -3.75pt

Total on the day -2.75pts

3:45 Newcastle Racing Tips (2nd March)

NEWCASTLE 3.45 

A class 4 dash with 9 runners and just the one known front running type in the shape of Jojo Rabbit who might need this run for fitness after a break, as might Ventura Express, plus it would need to improve time wise but I'm always wary when something might be allowed an easy lead but I expect it might be an outsider in this race. Walking On Water 7/2 might need further to show its best, it has won over this distance but that was a slow run affair or when the going was riding slow so I will look to lay this one. My 3rd top rated is Intervention who is another that might be better over further but in the make-up of this race it could run on into the frame but I doubt it will be an each way price, Dandy Dinmont is my 2nd top rated but another that might need this race for fitness so I will be investing in POCKLEY 9/2 who can be held up or track the leaders and its best rating was recorded this year and might be worth a slightly higher win stake than usual. 

Pockley 9/2 1st +4.5pts

Lay bet: Walking On Water +1pt 

Total +5.5pts

CHELMSFORD 7.00 

A field of 8 for this class 5 sprint where half of the field has been known to lead before and this race could be fast and furious for the class especially as 3 of those 4 are drawn in the 3 inside stalls, Muscika in stall 3 is my 4th top rated and can lead but is also capable of being versatile with its racing tactics, Hello Zabeel is my 3rd top rated and could do best of those coming from off the pace as long as it gets a clear passage from stall 7 especially with another fast starting type drawn in stall 8 so it could get squeezed out here, Winnetka is my 2nd top rated and has the stall 1 draw and could set the pace to the race and ought to be hard to catch for everything in this race apart from ARAIFJAN 11/1 who is in stall 2 and can lead or be ridden more tactically so could either contest the lead or settle on the rail a length behind the leaders waiting to stay on the stronger nearing the finish. 

Araifjan 11/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day +4.5pts

7:30 Chelmsford Racing Tips (8th December)

CHELMSFORD 7.30 

A class 6 sprint with a couple of horses that have been known to lead before, the biggest problem with this race is that I have deleted 6 of them as having virtually know hope and it would be a major shock if, Thomas Equina, Olivetti, Wooder's Dream, Madame Marmalade, Maybe Tonight or Pusey Street, won this race as none of them have won over this distance and most have only shown poor form and I expect they will all be double figure prices. If there's a fast early pace then Hit Mac 4/1 may struggle to stay the distance and might be worth laying if of value to do so. Marwari hasn't any distance form on Polytrack to its name so not sure what to expect but as usual I will stick with the proven, Dark Design has been known to lead before but is only 4th best on my figures, I've got Alafdhal as my 3rd top rated and this one likes to track the leaders as does Random Rocks who is my 2nd top rated horse so this one might be worth an each way interest but the top weight ARAIFJAN 7/2 comes out top on my figures and if it reproduced its best 2021 course and distance rating it would be winning a shade cosily and it has been known to lead before so its stall one draw is ideal and I expect them to try and make all and the trainer has had a 19% win ratio here in the last year.

Araifjan 7/2 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet Hit Mac +1pt 

Total on the day 0pts

6:30 Chelmsford Racing Tips (1st December)

CHELMSFORD 6.30 Div I 

Ten runners in this division where I will be looking towards laying Blackjack 5/1 who may need further and *Our Louise 10/1 who is still a maiden after 15 runs as long as they are single figure prices near the off. Praise Of Shadows 16/1 is my 3rd top rated and could make the frame, on course and distance ratings Real Estate 8/1 is outside my top four ratings but its best rating from Lingfield is good enough to make it my 2nd top rated but I will be hoping the top weight ARAIFJAN 3/1 can get away smartly and at least contest the lead if not actually leading but with not much other known early pace from stall 8 it could get to the front and if leading should prove too hard to catch if it can reproduce its best rating from last year here. 

*NR 

Araifjan 3/1 1st +3pts 

Lay bet Blackjack +1pt

Total +4pts

CHELMSFORD 7.00 Div II

This division looks a little weaker with only 4 of the runners having recorded a speed rating plus there isn't any known front running types so who will set the pace I don't know so any stakes will have to be kept low. Alafdhal is my 3rd top rated and likes to track the leaders and stall 2 should be ok for it, Admirable Lad who is going for a fourtimer is my 2nd top rated it also likes to track the leaders and has the best of the draw in stall 1 so they just might battle to lead hoping to make their draws count but I will be hoping that COMPANY MINX 12/1 (EW) from stall 8 can get a decent early position from which to attack later on in the race and did hint at a return to form when finishing 3rd last time out but the stable hasn't been in top form lately and I will be much happier if its an each way price. 

Company Minx 14/1 9th -2pts 

Total -2pts  

CHELMSFORD 7.30 

A class 4 dash with 7 of the 11 runners having been known to lead before and they might go off too fast and set it up for one of the 4 that wont be trying to lead. I'm not sure there will be anything of value to lay in this race but the betting will be the deciding factor for that idea. As for the winner, I'm not sure what will lead or what can prevail the longest I just think they will push each other too hard and fade nearing the finish but Expert Opinion and Red Walls can produce good ratings they are usually in lower class races, the 3yo Cabeza De Llave 8/1 will be trying to stay on at the finish and races as though further would suit it better but this race could be run to suit it so might be worth an each way interest but I will be backing HELLO ME 14/1 (EW) who is forecast to be an outsider and if so looks the value call in the race, it has won 4 times and been placed twice in the 9 runs its had on an artificial surface so could go well here and has to be an each way bet at the price. 

Hello Me 16/1 6th -2pts 

Total -2pts

CHELMSFORD 8.00 

Another 5 furlong dash with 2 known front running types amongst the 12 runners, I will look to lay Embla 10/1 if its a single figure price near the off, who may need further to shine and the same applies to Man On A Mission but being a 3yo this latter one could still improve, Red Stripes my 4th joint top rated and Ubahha my 3rd top rated are the ones I expect to set the early pace and either could do enough to make the frame so maybe worth an each way punt but which one I've no idea. Storm Melody is my 2nd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders and a reproduction of its best 2021 rating would see it make the frame here but hasn't been near that level this year so I will take a bit of a punt in this race and go with an each wager on IESHA 9/1 (EW) who hasn't been in good form lately but is a horse that can spring back to form without prior warning and it did record its best rating earlier this year, the stable hasn't been in great form lately but i'm hoping it will be a double figure price to make it worth the risk.

Iesha 18/1 8th -2pts

Lay bet Man On A Mission +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt

6:30 Chelmsford Racing Tips (17th November)

CHELMSFORD 6.30 

Only 5 runners for this class 2 sprint, See You Boy is making its English debut having previously run in France where it has won on the Polytrack surface so could be a big danger in this race, Ventura Tormenta hasn't run on the AW before but its best on turf isn’t good enough to win this race. Shallow Hal my 3rd top rated and Soldiers Minute in 2nd top spot both like to track the leaders but I am hoping that MAY SONIC 3/1 will set the pace to this race and then could prove hard to catch. 

May Sonic 3/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

CHELMSFORD 7.00 

A full house of 14 for this class 5 sprint with 2 or 3 that have been known to lead before, the 3yo Shades Of Summer 6/1 won last time out and could improve for that experience but that race was a poor event run in a slow time so it might have been flattered by the result and might be worth opposing but I cannot see anything else to lay as I think they will be double figure prices. Using a Wolverhampton rating Rattling 6/1 comes out in joint 3rd top spot and being a front running type could go well the other joint 3rd top rated is El Hombre 8/1 but this one time wise hasn't been in as good form as last year although it has been running well. Yimou 12/1 comes out 2nd best but once again its using a 2021 speed figure so I will be siding with ARAIFJAN 8/1 who is a versatile type when it comes to racing tactics and that includes leading and with the make-up of this race it could deploy any tactic and if getting to the front ought to prove too hard to catch. 

Araifjan 8/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet Shades Of Summer -5.5pts

Total -6.5pts

CHELMSFORD 7.30 

A 5 furlong class 5 dash with 12 runners and 5 of them have led before, I think the 3yo *Bethersden Boy 6/1 will need further to show its true worth and might be worth laying to a small stake in this race. I've got four horses rated very close to each other just outside my top 2, Dark Side Prince 9/1, Expert Opinion 8/1, Street Parade 10/1 and Mashaan 14/1, but the latter might have been flattered by its best rating and is beginning to look like a fluke time where it got towed along in a fast run race. My 2nd top rated is Angle Land 11/2 and being a front running type it could prove very dangerous if allowed an easy lead but I doubt that will happen here and they might battle too hard for the lead and play into the hooves of MICK'S SPIRIT 8/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger nearing the finish, its trainer has a 24% win ratio with their older horses at this course and the apprentice jockey has an 18% win ratio when riding for the stable which points to connections expecting it to run very well here. 

*NR

Mick's Spirit 8/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -8.5pts

3:50 Newcastle Racing Tips (11th November)

NEWCASTLE 3.50 

A very competitive looking class 4 dash where the early pace could bet by either Khabib 5/2 and or Twilight Madness 5/2 and maybe the latter will do best as its drawn nearer to the better side of the course in stall 8 but maybe a better horse over further so the former could get an easy lead and then be more dangerous and could make the frame but neither are each way prices and maybe worth laying at the prices on offer. Be Proud 12/1 who likes to track the leaders is my 3rd top rated and coming out of stall 6 it could make the frame, Ballyare 14/1 is a hold up type of horse and my 2nd top rated so could make the frame with a clear run but I will be putting my faith on *OUR ABSENT FRIENDS 15/2 who won well 2 runs ago when winning over this course and distance admittedly in a class 6 race but this lightly raced 4yo who has only ran 5 runs and could be an improving sort who can be excused its run last time out over 6 furlongs and is quickly dropped back in distance to run here. 

*NR

Lay bet Twilight Madness -2pts

Total -2pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.55 Div I

A 13 runner class 6 apprentice jockeys handicap with just 2 known front running types amongst them. I will look to lay both Minhaaj and Rose Bandit as they can both struggle to stay this distance in a fast run race which might happen here. Kath's Toyboy and Big Impact are my joint 4th top rated horses and the latter is one of the known front runners but from stall 12 it might use up too much of its energy to get to the front and then fade nearing the finish, Griggy who is my 3rd top rated is another that doesn't want a really fast early pace and believe it or not the same applies to Fylingdale who comes out in 2nd top spot so my money will be riding on the other likely pacesetter in the shape of VIEWFROMTHESTARS 14/1 (EW) and if this one gets to the front from stall 6 it should prove very hard to catch but at the price I will take some insurance with an each way wager. 

Viewfromthestars 14/1 Unp -2pts 

Lay bet Rose Bandit +1pt 

Total -1pt 

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.30 Div II

An apprentice jockeys class 6 handicap with 13 runners and just one known front running type amongst them. I'm not sure if there's anything worthwhile to lay in this race as I expect they will all be double figure prices. Camachess and the 3yo Mumcat are my joint 3rd top rated horses but the former hasn't been in good form lately but the latter could make the frame, in joint top spot I've got Astrophysics and ARAIFJAN 6/1 the former's trainer has been 0-29 in the last 2 weeks and its had 40 runners since its last win so my money will be riding on Araifjan who is versatile when it comes to racing tactics which includes leading so I'm hoping from stall 3 it can get away smartly, gain control of the rails and the pace and lead all the way to victory. 

Araifjan 6/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt  

Eric said: Good for promotion, 5.30 race had joint top rated horses 1st 25/1 + 2nd 5/2, also had joint 3rd top rated and said Mum's could make the frame finished 3rd at 13/2...f/c=144.60...t/c = 481.43

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.00 

A 11 runner race where the early pace could be set by Boom The Groom or more likely by Eternal Halo 15/2 but I doubt either can hold on for the win although the latter could go well if allowed an easy lead. I will look to lay Fristel 13/2 who races as though a longer distance will be needed to show its best form and the same applies to Q Twenty Boy 15/2. Sir Rodneyredblood 9/2 could go well if reproducing its best figure from Chelmsford, the 3yo Level Up 5/1 could also go well looking at its rating from that course but isn't really an each way price. My money will be riding on YAAHOBBY 14/1 (EW) who ran well when 3rd two runs ago at Newcastle but hasn't ran here before which is a worry, it should be staying on at the finish and from stall 2 it ought to be able to get on the rail just behind the leaders ready to attack late on in the race and a juicy price so an each way bet seems best.

Yaahobby 14/1 1st +16.8pts 

Lay bets Q Twenty Boy +1pt

Total +17.8pts

Total on the day +13.8pts

2:35 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (25th November)

WOLVERHAMPTON 2.35 

There is a couple of known front runners in this field of 11, Grandfather Tom 8/1 who has been in poor form lately and I would look to lay this one if its a single figure price and the 3yo Amasova 7/1 but this one would need to improve time wise to win this race but could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead, this doesn't seem to be the favoured surface for Capla Spirit 4/1 but it does still come out 4th best on my figures so could make the frame if others falter but I am doubtful it can win this race, Its Wonderful 20/1 may need further to shine as might the 3yo Portelet Bay 13/2, I've got Tantastic 5/1 as my 3rd top rated and this one can either be held up or track the leaders but I'm not sure its an each way price, the old timer You're Cool 18/1 comes out 2nd best on a course and distance figure recorded earlier this year but has been quite inconsistent lately but I will be investing my money on the 3yo ADMIRABLE LAD 7/2 who won last time out and has been found an ideal opportunity to follow up in this race and its only the stall 11 draw that looks of any concern but if granted a clear run it could win with a little bit in hand. 

Admirable Lady 5/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bet: Grandfather Tom -4.5pts

Total -5.5pts

CHELMSFORD 6.50 

There's 3 possible pacesetters amongst the 10 runners in this race, the 13yo Tropics would have had every chance in this race even 2 years ago but is getting slowly slower with age each year and its best from this year leaves it outside my top 3 ratings, one I will look to lay if of value to do so is Restless Endeavour 6/1 who may prefer a longer distance and has never won over this trip, The Greatestshowman 5/1 won last time out but hasn't run at this course this year and its best time from 2020 wouldn't be good enough to make the frame but it is good form so never say never, Red Walls 6/1 also won last time out but this race looks a bit better affair and I'm not sure it can win this race, Jack The Truth 9/2 comes out 3rd best using a time from 2020 but isn't really an each way price, in this race I will be backing 2 horses to cover the angles, ARAIFJAN 8/1 who is a front running type and if getting to the front from stall 10 it could prove hard to catch and may squeeze up some of those drawn inside of it and that might enhance its chances so has to carry some of my money but I will also be backing INVINCIBLE LARNE 8/1 who last time out recorded fast time when finishing 3rd and has been found a good chance to go even better here and with a clear run it could win this race but it is 94 days since the stable last had a winner which is a little off putting and the one of the reasons i will be backing 2 horses in this race. 

Araifjan 8/1 7th -1pt 

Invincible Larne 8/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Restless Endeavour +1pt 

Total -1pts

Total on the day -6.5pts

5:00 Chelmsford City Racing Tips (7th October)

CHELMSFORD 5.00 

A five furlong dash with 11 of which 6 have been known to lead and 5 of the runners are also 3yo’s and 4 of those 3yo’s are also front running types so this will be a fast and furious affair and I think it will be won from the front, Sir Rodneyredblood 9/1 may need further to shine and could be one to lay if a single figure price, Hyde Park Barracks 5/1 has only slow times from Ireland and I'm not sure this fast surface will suit it but am I sure enough to lay it, if its backed before the off I would leave it alone, Nubough 12/1 and Lucky Ava 5/1 are capable of producing fast times but usually in lower class races than this one so may struggle in this class 4 affair, my money will be riding on TRUE HERO 5/1 who likes to lead and has the plum stall 1 draw so it could gain control on the rails which is always a bonus and then prove hard to catch and this one has very good jockey stats with a win ratio of 44% on the stables older horses. 

True Hero 5/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets: Sir Rodneyredblood -8pts, Hyde Park Barracks +1pt

Total -8pts

CHELMSFORD 6.00 

Twelve runners here over 6 furlongs and 4 runners that have been known to lead before, the 2 more natural front runners, I might well look to lay Libertine Belle 13/2 who has only produced slow times on this surface from 3 runs, one here and two at Kempton, and would need to improve on its best time which it recorded at Wolverhampton, Driftwood and Rebel Redemption are both drawn in double figure stalls so will need to get away really fast to get out and across to the rails but I think they both may actually struggle to lead with the make-up of this race and both would need to improve time wise to win this race, the 3yo Lion King is my 3rd top rated and is usually staying on at the finish over this distance and could stay on and make the frame but may need a degree of luck in running from stall 9, COME ON GIRL 14/1 (EW) is my top rated if I use its best time from 2020 but I'm not sure if that time can be trusted as it might have been towed along in a fast run race but I think it might be worth a small each way punt if a double figure price but it will be a small bet, I am hoping that ARAIFJAN 11/2 who has the stall 1 draw who has been known to lead but doesn't have to, can either lead or sit about a length behind the leader/s ready to pounce in the closing stages and this one is another with good jockey stats, 2-8 for all runners and 1-2 on the stables older horses.

Come On Girl 16/1 4th -2pts 

Araifan 11/2 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet: Libertine Bell +1pt 

Total -2pts

Total on the day -10pts 

3:30 Chelmsford Racing Tips (26th August)

CHELMSFORD 3.30 

Only 6 runners but half of them have been known to lead before but I think that Swiss Pride might be the one to set the pace as it seems to be the more natural front running type than the other 2 possible pacesetters, looking at the tissue prices the 3yo Toussarak 6/4 is forecast to be a short priced favourite but I think it might get outpaced as it races as though a longer trip would suit it better so maybe worth laying at the price as you lose very little if it does win, INVINCIBLE LARNE 13/2 hasn't run over this course and distance this year and its best from 2020 makes it my top rated so has to have a decent chance of winning and has been running well lately on turf, my top rated on just 2021 times is ARAIFJAN 6/1 who is versatile when it comes to its racing tactics and has the plum draw in stall 1 to work from and should get a good early position from which to lead or attack in the latter stages of the race. 

Araifjan 6/1 4th -1pt 

Invincible Larne 13/2 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

CHELMSFORD 5.05 

Only 8 runners and I can find negatives against 5 of them and I would look to lay any that are a single figure price, Katherine Place is my 3rd top rated which it recorded over this course and distance this year so could go well but I doubt it will be an each way price, Precious Plum is my 2nd top rated with TILSWORTH ROSE 11/4 in top spot, these 2 met each other last time out and the selection is weighted to confirm the result in this race, the jockey booking looks a positive until you notice he is 0-14 when riding for this stable which is a concern so my stakes will be kept on the low side. 

Tilsworth Rose 17/2 6th -1pt

Lay bets Cable Guy +1pt, Swell Song +1pt, Rocksbury +1pt, Kelinda Dice +1pt, Hurricane Alert +1pt

Total +4pts

LINGFIELD 5.10 

With 11 runners over the minimum trip I would expect to find at least one or two front runners but no such luck which makes analysis many times harder, I am a great believer that what I call the make-up of the race, the draw and racing style of each runner, is a lot more vital than most punters realise, both Saaheq and Centurion Song don't like the going to be too fast, so I'm hoping they don't water the course too much as I can then eliminate the pair of them, The Princes Poet could go well here being my 2nd top rated on just 2021 times but is only 5th top rated on overall figures, Shamshon has been in good form lately but this 10yo gets gradually slower each year, GRANDFATHER TOM 20/1 (EW) has a time from 2020 that makes it my top rated but it hasn't run for 278 days but has won before after a break so it could go well if fully fit and I am hoping its an each way price but just in case its not fully wound up I will also be backing LEODIS DREAM 7/1 as the top weight is my top rated on 2021 times which is good enough for 2nd top on overall figures.

Leodis Dream 7/1 8th -1pt 

Grandfather Tom 40/1 9th -2pts 

Total -3pts  

LINGFIELD 5.40 

A 10 runner race but again what will lead I have no idea which is always a concern, I will lay Indian Sounds, Isabella Swan and Shoot To Kill if they are single figure prices because all 3 of them struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace, something has to lead so I am going to hope there early pace is a fast one, Manigordowho is my 3rd top rated and will be trying to stay on at the finish but with a slow early pace I doubt it will get there in time, NATURAL PATH 4/1 is my top rated on just 2021 times and its good enough for 2nd top spot on overall figures but THEOTHERSIDE 12/1 is top rated using a 2020 time, both trainers have had winners in the last 2 weeks and both horses have good trainer/jockey stats so I will go with backing both of them in this race.

Natural Path 4/1 1st +4pts 

Theotherside 12/1 -1pt 

Total +3pts

Total on the day +2pts

2:05 Lingfield - Horse Racing Tips (21st December)

LINGFIELD 2.05 

A nice looking class 4 race, depending on prices I will look to lay Pop Dancer, Doc Sportello and Bombastic, there's few that could run well, El Hombre, Count Otto and Wheres Mick and could be an each way bet but hopefully they will only be battling for 3rd place as I will be backing ARAIFJAN 5/1 who can be versatile with its racing tactics and as its drawn in stall 1 I think it might race from the front as will my other selection MERHOOB 10/3 as long as it gets out quickly enough from stall 12, they both have good trainer/jockey stats making both stables are expecting to win this race. 

Araifan 5/1 6th (-1pt)

Merhoob 4/1 7th (-1pt)

Total: -2pts 

LINGFIELD 3.05 

For a class 5 race this looks very competitive, there's plenty of early paced types so it should be a true run race, Boom The Groom won last time out over this c/d but its penalty for winning that race wont make it easy for it to follow up here but it could go well, in fact I've only got 2 horses that are not with a few pounds of my 2nd to 7th rated horses but i think at the weights my top rated beast is COMEATCHOO 6/1 and from stall 1 it can hopefully get a good early position from which to attack in the home straight. 

Comeatchoo 6/1 2nd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

NEWCASTLE 4.25 

The draw usually makes no difference at this straight course and there is 3 known front running types in this field of 12, Gunmetal in stall 2 is one of them and my 5th top rated, in 4th top spot is Lucky Lodge who will be trying to stay on at the finish after tracking the leaders, Tathmeen is 3rd top and will be running on well at the finish but i will be backing FANTASY KEEPER 8/1 who is top rated on 2020 c/d times and a front runner so if getting there he should be hard to catch but the top weight WASNTEXPECTINGTHAT 20/1 (EW) has a time from 2019 that would make it my top rated and this is a drop down in class for it so has to be worth an each way wager at the price 

Fantasy Keeper 16/1 5th (-1pt)

Wasntexpectingthat 20/1 Unp (-2pts)

Total: -3pts

NEWCASTLE 5.25 

Boy oh boy is the ratings for this race so close at the top of the leader board, there's several who could make the frame and there might be an each way wager when I've seen the betting, Kommander Kirkup is my 3rd top rated on 2020 c/d times but this 9 yo does seem to be on a slow downward spiral and could go well here, the top weight Phoenix Star is going for the hattrick and is my 2nd top rated and that is only by 1lb but the reason I am going for PROPHECY 10/1 (EW) is that it could be the one to set the pace and if allowed an easy lead could lead from start to finish although the trainer/jockey stats are a little off-putting but hopefully it will be an each way price and worth a small punt.

Prophecy 10/1 Unp (-2pts)

Total on the Day: -8pts