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Wednesday 27 October 2021

6:30 Chelmsford Racing Tips (28th October)


TENTH CENTURY 14/1 a 3yo who has led before when allowed to set its own relatively slow early pace but the final time was quite a bit slow even for this class of race not for me in this race as I don't think it will get its own way up front. 

COOL SPIRIT 12/1 this one does like to lead but I am not sure that this surface will suit it and on other surfaces its times have also been quite slow so its not for me here today but not value to lay at the price. 

ENCHANTED NIGHT 3/1 a 3yo who races as though a longer distance would suit it better and is still a maiden after 9 races but I'm not sure I could back or lay this runner, that was until I've seen the price and I might be tempted to lay it at 3/1 as it looks poor value in my opinion. 

IT MUST BE FAITH 4/1 its best time from 2020 makes it my 2nd top rated as does its time for just 2021 course and distance runs also so it could make the frame after finishing 2nd on both of its last 2 runs so is in good form but isn't really an each way price. 

LORNA COLE 33/1 this one is my 3rd top rated and its best time was recorded here earlier this year so another that could make the frame and may be worth risking a small each way punt as it usually stays on nearing the finish and looks overpriced.

STRONSAY 4/1 hasn't any form over this distance on an artificial surface and it races as though a longer distance is required and its 3 AW races have been quite poor so at the price I would look to lay it as it looks poor value. 

HOWZAK 9/2 the 3rd 3yo in this race but it hasn't any form over this distance but it did fade over 6 furlongs so this race could suit it but I couldn't back or lay this runner.

RUBY WONDER 40/1 has relatively poor form to its name and still a maiden after 9 races but has made the frame 4 times so could do so again here but its time at Wolverhampton over this distance was slow so not surprised its a big price. 

TILSWORTH ROSE 66/1 comes in top spot on my speed figures and the jockey booking also looks a positive move but the trainers relatively poor stats is a concern but the price looks way too big for its actual chance of winning. 

TOP BOY 10/1 has only poor form to its name recently and age may be catching up with this 11yo who hasn't won a race since 2019 and I doubt that will change in this race and I wouldn't be surprised to see it drift in the market.

RED STRIPES 20/1 a possible pacesetter but I think this is another horse where age is catching up with it as this ones last win on the AW was also back in 2019 

SUMMARY: There is six of the eleven runners in this race which I have negatives against and give very little chance to any of them winning this race then I've got two others, Enchanted Night and Howzak, both 3yo’s and they could be dangerous if suddenly improving which can happen with these youngsters, I have a couple who I might do for the forecast in It Must Be Faith and Lorna Cole but my money will be riding on *TILSWORTH ROSE 66/1 (EW) who can be held up or track the leaders and it could get a tow into the race if Cool Spirit blasts out from stall 11 and heads for the rails and a repeat of its winning time here earlier this year would see in winning handily but the trainer is 0-11 in the last 2 weeks and the horse has only won once from 22 runs on the artificial surfaces so my stakes wont be at full strength but I cannot let it run without a small each way punt at the price.


Lay bets: Enchanted Night +1pt, Stronsay +1pt

Total on the day +2pts

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