5:30 Chelmsford Racing Tips (22nd November)

CHELMSFORD 5.30 

Only 5 runners but an intriguing race, Shallow Hal has been in poor form lately and I expect it will be the outsider in this race, The Last Lion a hold up type and Above who likes to track the leaders both need to improve time wise to win this race, REGIONAL 11/8 I expect will be the favourite and as it is the one I expect to set the pace to the race this 3yo could be hard to catch and wouldn't need to improve much on its best turf speed figure on its debut here on an artificial surface to hold CORINTHIA KNIGHT 7/1 at bay in the latter stages but I do have the latter horse rated a few spots higher on my speed figures, it likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and this race could be run to suit it but I will have to back them both to cover the angles. 

Regional 6/4 2nd -1pt 

Corinthia Knight 16/1 5th

Total -2pts  

CHELMSFORD 6.00 

A full house of 14 for this race with three horses that are known as front running sorts which means I can look to lay Shalaa Asker 11/2 who I think is better over a shorter distance, Stay Smart in stall 2 could be the one to gain control of the rails and it is my 3rd top rated but it hasn't been in the best of form lately but being a 3yo it could go well especially if getting a quick exit from the stalls, my top rated is Garth Rockett 16/1 recording its best time in 2020 but this one hasn't shown anything since February this year and that time is well below its best from the previous year, to make me think this race will see it back to winning ways and the bookies seem to agree, so my money will be riding on another 3yo in the shape of BIG BARD 2/1 who has won its last two races and has been found a very good opportunity to complete the hat trick despite being stuck out in stall 13 as it might be able to follow another front running type Secret Glow from stall 14 across towards the rails and then gain a good position from which to attack in the closing stages of the race. 

Big Bard 2/1 6th -1pt

Lay bet: Shalaa Asker +1pt 

Total 0pts

CHELMSFORD 6.30 

A field of 12 for this class 6 race and at first glance its a bit of a strange race to analyse and any stakes have to be kept low, Shanghai Rocks 13/2 might need further to show its best but as its a 3yo I’m not sure whether I can lay it or not but it might be worth the risk if the price is right but I think its current price is a little bit too high to be of value for the lay while anything under 5/1 I might have taken the risk, the same can apply to Lethal Angel 15/2, my top two ratings are both horses that like to set the pace to races, MOVEONUP 14/1 (EW) is my 2nd top rated and that is using a time it recorded when winning over this course and distance in 2020 but this one has been in poor form lately but if it springs back to form it could go well and I expect the apprentice jockeys instructions will simply be to try to get to the front, I would probably have only backed TILSWORTH ROSE 20/1 (EW) in this race if it wasn't for the poor 0-8 jockey stats and the trainers poorish 6% win ratio at this course but this one won four races ago and could be the one to gain control of the rails which are important on the bends, I will back them both but maybe with my stakes tilted in the favour of the latter and my top rated horse, at the prices I will be having a couple of small each way punts.

Moveonup 16/1 8th 2pt 

Tilsworth Rose 33/1 9th -2pts

Total -4pts

Total on the day -4pts

6:30 Chelmsford Racing Tips (28th October)

CHELMSFORD 6.30 

TENTH CENTURY 14/1 a 3yo who has led before when allowed to set its own relatively slow early pace but the final time was quite a bit slow even for this class of race not for me in this race as I don't think it will get its own way up front. 

COOL SPIRIT 12/1 this one does like to lead but I am not sure that this surface will suit it and on other surfaces its times have also been quite slow so its not for me here today but not value to lay at the price. 

ENCHANTED NIGHT 3/1 a 3yo who races as though a longer distance would suit it better and is still a maiden after 9 races but I'm not sure I could back or lay this runner, that was until I've seen the price and I might be tempted to lay it at 3/1 as it looks poor value in my opinion. 

IT MUST BE FAITH 4/1 its best time from 2020 makes it my 2nd top rated as does its time for just 2021 course and distance runs also so it could make the frame after finishing 2nd on both of its last 2 runs so is in good form but isn't really an each way price. 

LORNA COLE 33/1 this one is my 3rd top rated and its best time was recorded here earlier this year so another that could make the frame and may be worth risking a small each way punt as it usually stays on nearing the finish and looks overpriced.

STRONSAY 4/1 hasn't any form over this distance on an artificial surface and it races as though a longer distance is required and its 3 AW races have been quite poor so at the price I would look to lay it as it looks poor value. 

HOWZAK 9/2 the 3rd 3yo in this race but it hasn't any form over this distance but it did fade over 6 furlongs so this race could suit it but I couldn't back or lay this runner.

RUBY WONDER 40/1 has relatively poor form to its name and still a maiden after 9 races but has made the frame 4 times so could do so again here but its time at Wolverhampton over this distance was slow so not surprised its a big price. 

TILSWORTH ROSE 66/1 comes in top spot on my speed figures and the jockey booking also looks a positive move but the trainers relatively poor stats is a concern but the price looks way too big for its actual chance of winning. 

TOP BOY 10/1 has only poor form to its name recently and age may be catching up with this 11yo who hasn't won a race since 2019 and I doubt that will change in this race and I wouldn't be surprised to see it drift in the market.

RED STRIPES 20/1 a possible pacesetter but I think this is another horse where age is catching up with it as this ones last win on the AW was also back in 2019 

SUMMARY: There is six of the eleven runners in this race which I have negatives against and give very little chance to any of them winning this race then I've got two others, Enchanted Night and Howzak, both 3yo’s and they could be dangerous if suddenly improving which can happen with these youngsters, I have a couple who I might do for the forecast in It Must Be Faith and Lorna Cole but my money will be riding on *TILSWORTH ROSE 66/1 (EW) who can be held up or track the leaders and it could get a tow into the race if Cool Spirit blasts out from stall 11 and heads for the rails and a repeat of its winning time here earlier this year would see in winning handily but the trainer is 0-11 in the last 2 weeks and the horse has only won once from 22 runs on the artificial surfaces so my stakes wont be at full strength but I cannot let it run without a small each way punt at the price.

*NR

Lay bets: Enchanted Night +1pt, Stronsay +1pt

Total on the day +2pts

3:30 Chelmsford Racing Tips (26th August)

CHELMSFORD 3.30 

Only 6 runners but half of them have been known to lead before but I think that Swiss Pride might be the one to set the pace as it seems to be the more natural front running type than the other 2 possible pacesetters, looking at the tissue prices the 3yo Toussarak 6/4 is forecast to be a short priced favourite but I think it might get outpaced as it races as though a longer trip would suit it better so maybe worth laying at the price as you lose very little if it does win, INVINCIBLE LARNE 13/2 hasn't run over this course and distance this year and its best from 2020 makes it my top rated so has to have a decent chance of winning and has been running well lately on turf, my top rated on just 2021 times is ARAIFJAN 6/1 who is versatile when it comes to its racing tactics and has the plum draw in stall 1 to work from and should get a good early position from which to lead or attack in the latter stages of the race. 

Araifjan 6/1 4th -1pt 

Invincible Larne 13/2 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

CHELMSFORD 5.05 

Only 8 runners and I can find negatives against 5 of them and I would look to lay any that are a single figure price, Katherine Place is my 3rd top rated which it recorded over this course and distance this year so could go well but I doubt it will be an each way price, Precious Plum is my 2nd top rated with TILSWORTH ROSE 11/4 in top spot, these 2 met each other last time out and the selection is weighted to confirm the result in this race, the jockey booking looks a positive until you notice he is 0-14 when riding for this stable which is a concern so my stakes will be kept on the low side. 

Tilsworth Rose 17/2 6th -1pt

Lay bets Cable Guy +1pt, Swell Song +1pt, Rocksbury +1pt, Kelinda Dice +1pt, Hurricane Alert +1pt

Total +4pts

LINGFIELD 5.10 

With 11 runners over the minimum trip I would expect to find at least one or two front runners but no such luck which makes analysis many times harder, I am a great believer that what I call the make-up of the race, the draw and racing style of each runner, is a lot more vital than most punters realise, both Saaheq and Centurion Song don't like the going to be too fast, so I'm hoping they don't water the course too much as I can then eliminate the pair of them, The Princes Poet could go well here being my 2nd top rated on just 2021 times but is only 5th top rated on overall figures, Shamshon has been in good form lately but this 10yo gets gradually slower each year, GRANDFATHER TOM 20/1 (EW) has a time from 2020 that makes it my top rated but it hasn't run for 278 days but has won before after a break so it could go well if fully fit and I am hoping its an each way price but just in case its not fully wound up I will also be backing LEODIS DREAM 7/1 as the top weight is my top rated on 2021 times which is good enough for 2nd top on overall figures.

Leodis Dream 7/1 8th -1pt 

Grandfather Tom 40/1 9th -2pts 

Total -3pts  

LINGFIELD 5.40 

A 10 runner race but again what will lead I have no idea which is always a concern, I will lay Indian Sounds, Isabella Swan and Shoot To Kill if they are single figure prices because all 3 of them struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace, something has to lead so I am going to hope there early pace is a fast one, Manigordowho is my 3rd top rated and will be trying to stay on at the finish but with a slow early pace I doubt it will get there in time, NATURAL PATH 4/1 is my top rated on just 2021 times and its good enough for 2nd top spot on overall figures but THEOTHERSIDE 12/1 is top rated using a 2020 time, both trainers have had winners in the last 2 weeks and both horses have good trainer/jockey stats so I will go with backing both of them in this race.

Natural Path 4/1 1st +4pts 

Theotherside 12/1 -1pt 

Total +3pts

Total on the day +2pts

2:50 Pontefract Racing Tips (14th August)

PONTEFRACT 2.50 

CHECK THE GOING BEFORE BETTING. 

In all reality, I should be leaving this race alone as there is too little form for me to be confident with any selection. However, there's one horse that stands out on those that I can analyse properly and it looks a stupidly big price on the tissue prices so I will be having a small and I do mean small, each way punt on *LADY OF ARAN at 33/1 (EW). 


*NR


CHESTER 3.40 

There's a few with limited form to work with which reduces the size of any stakes, the early pace could well be set by Jack The Truth and it could easily do enough from the front to hold on for a place and if allowed a soft lead it could possibly pinch the race but I will stick my pennies on FOX HILL 9/1 (EW) who will likely track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and being drawn next door to the probable frontrunner it should get a good tow into the race and worth an each-way bet at the price. 

Fox Hill 16/1 6th (-2pt)

Total -2pts 

CHESTER 4.10

This 2nd division has a few less unexposed sorts but its still a tricky looking race, there's 3 that have been known to lead before and maybe Alsvinder can do best of those racing to the fore and its best time from 2018 would make it my 2nd top-rated but its form since then hasn't been up to that level but I will be backing MUTBAAHY 4/1 who will be trying to run on strongly at the business end of the race and if reproducing its best time from Catterick this year would see it back in the winner's enclosure. 

Mutbaahy 11/2 6th 

Total -1pt


CHEPSTOW 7.05

There's only 5 runners and 2 of them like to set the pace, looking at the tissue prices I am surprised Zapper Cass is forecast to be the favourite as this distance sometimes looks to be on the short side for it, Secretfact is top-rated by 2lb’s using its 2019 time but hasn't been in good form so far this year and I am thinking that PINK FLAMINGO 2/1 could lead here and if doing so it could be very hard to catch. 

Pink Flamingo 85/40 4th (-1pt)

Total -1pt

LINGFIELD 7.55

Will all 16 runners take part? I can see 3 that have been known to lead so it should be a true run race, looking at the lightly raced types in the race none seem fancied according to the tissue prices which leaves me with my top 4 ratings, WILD FLOWER 7/1 is 4th top rated the jockey is making their debut for the stable but the stable is 0-14 at this course, TILSWORTH ROSE 13/2 is in 3rd top spot and is one of the frontrunners it could go very well from the front BUT again its a jockey making their debut for the stable but the trainer's record is poor at 0-26, the topweight KATHERINE PLACE 5/1 is 2nd top rated in this instance the jockey is 0-2 for the stable but the trainer's record is 0-12 here at Lingfield, my top rated is DARK SIDE DREAM 10/1 and should be my selection, the trainer is 1-12 at this track but the jockey is 0-9, so as you can see my top 4 all have negatives against their names, I will probably go with dutching all 4 of them but slightly in favour of my top rating. 

Tilsworth Rose 13/2 1st Betfair SP (9.69) + EX £40.50
Katherine Place 5/1 2nd 
Wild Flower 15/2 5th 
Dark Side Dream 20/1 7th 

Total: +3.5pts 

Total on the day: -.5pts

5:00 Ripon Racing Tips & Lay Best (14th July)

RIPON 5.00 

A race that perhaps should be left alone, I would look to lay (Wild Flower who looks to want a longer trip + Storm Lightning who hasn't shown much lately and will be trying to stay on too late) Kibaar has a good time from 2018 but the jockeys 1-31 record for the stable is enough to put me off, Alba Del Sole likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly, my money will be riding on TILSWORTH ROSE 11/2 who is the only known frontrunner in the field and does have the best speed figure from 2019/20 so if getting to the front it should prove hard to catch.

Tilsworth Rose 15/2 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Wild Flower -8pts,  Storming Light +1pt

Total: -8pts

RIPON 6.05 

A poor class 6 race with 11 runners but only 2 of them have recorded speed figures but there is a couple of 3yo in the race which muddies the water as the race won't take much winning, also I cannot see who will set the pace, I could lay 5 horses (Jorvik Prince who may find this too far + as will Oriental Splendour + Harrys Ridge + Champagne Angel + Tigerinmytank may all need further) my 2nd top-rated is ROUND THE ISLAND 6/4 who will be staying on strongly at the finish while KODIMOOR 16/1 who is my top-rated likes to track the leaders and they stay on resolutely so it must be worth an each-way punt at the price, it would have been my sole selection if it wasn't for the stables 0-10 at this course with its older horses and the jockeys 0-4 record.

Round The Island 7/4 1st (+1.75pts)

Kodimorr 16/1 4th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Jorvik Prince +1pt, Oriental Splendour +1pt, Harry Ridge +1pt, Champagne Angel +1pt, Tigerinmytank +1pt

Total: +5.75pts

 

AYR 6.50 

There are a few lightly raced types with five 3yo runners and they could improve without warning, there are 2 known frontrunners in the race and they are my 3rd top and top-rated so they could do enough to win this race from the front, Cookie Dunedin has a time at Hamilton that would make it my top-rated but doesn't want fast ground, GLORY FIGHTER 7/1 and MR WAGYU 15/2 are the 2 front runners and I will be backing them both hoping at least one of them can stay on strongly enough to repel all challengers.

Mr Wagyu 15/2 3rd (-1pt)

Glory Fighter 14/1 7th (1pts)

Total:  -2pts

Total on the day: -4.75pts