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Sunday, 24 October 2021

7:00 Newcastle Racing Tips (25th October)

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

GINGER JAM may need a longer distance to show its best and its only run over this course and distance resulted in a slow time so not for me in this race. 

BUNIANN 5/2 usually likes to track the leaders, can be relied to reproduce its best but would need to improve time wise to win this race, may have been flattered by its victory last time out and therefore the price doesn't represent poor value and I would take the risk and lay it at that price.

VICTORY ANGEL hasn't any distance form on the All-Weather tracks over this distance but it does have a time from Ripon on turf which would make it 4th top spot on overall figures. 

JAMES WATT can be relied upon to reproduce its best speed figures when it encounters its ideal conditions but even then those times are relatively slow so not for me in this race. 

GLORIOUS RIO comes out 2nd top rated on just this years course and distance times but that figure is only good enough for 5th top spot on my overall figures but has good jockey stats so may make the frame. 

SOAPY'S SISTER has only slow times over this course and distance but its best time from on the truf at Hamilton would make it my joint 2nd top rated on overall figures. 

QUEEN OF KALAHARI 4/1 this might not be the right surface for it and/or too short a distance and its best speed figure doesn't see it make my top 4 so not for me in this race and at the price I will be laying it because its poor value in my opinion. 

SOUND OF IONA has only had 3 runs on the artificial surfaces and made the frame in just one of them, its best time on turf would make it my top rated but its poor AW form puts me off. 

BALLYARE this 3yo comes out top rated on just 2021 course and distance ratings and its best time on turf would make it my joint 2nd top rated and only 2lbs from top spot but the apprentice jockeys 3lb claim makes it my top rated on both sets of figures. 

SPANISH ANGEL this one comes in outside my top four ratings, it is usually held up for a late run and could run into a place if others falter but I doubt it can win this race. 

TAR HEEL this 3yo has shown very little in its runs to date and I cannot see any reason why it should change here and I expect it to be one of the outsiders. 

SUMMARY: I have said a few of these are not for me in this race and to be honest none of them are jumping out of the page to me, firstly and most significantly is the lack of known front running types in the race which is unusual in a 5 furlong dash, obviously something will set the pace but the question is will it be a true fast pace, I somehow doubt it and I should probably leave this race well alone but then again I might dutch the 3 horses that I think could win this race despite the lack of early pace, GLORIOUS RIO 7/1 has good jockey stats making me think connections are expecting a big run here and does usually like to track the pacemakers so could cover any moves by its opponents, SOAPY'S SISTER 12/1 has a reasonably good jockey stat so could go well but being a hold up type it will need some luck in running and hope the leaders haven't kept plenty in reserve to repel any late challengers but maybe worth an each way interest at a double figure price, BALLYARE 6/1 with its apprentice jockeys 3lb claim comes out top rated on both sets of figures and probably should be my only selection in this race but the lack of pace concerns me greatly and this one being a hold up type could leave itself with too much to do if the leaders don't tire nearing the finish, I will go with backing all three of them but probably tilted in favour of my top rated horse.

Ballyare 15/2 1st +7.5pts + CFS £184.03 EX £167.80
Soapy's Sister 25/1 2nd -1pt 
Glorious Rio 7/ 19th -1pt 

Lay bets Buniann +1pt

Total on the day  +6.5pts 

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