3:38 Newcastle Racing Tips (18th October)

NEWCASTLE 3.38 

I can see 5 horses in this race that have led before but I think they will be setting it up for something coming from off the pace, it isn't a great race for a class 3 affair but it should be a true run race, Jordan Electrics, Water Of Leith and Spartan Fighter are all possible pacesetters but all 3 of them do their winning in lower class races so maybe not quite up to winning here but one or more could still make the frame if reproducing their previous best, Lovely Mana, maybe too far for it, Running Wild, relatively slow times, and Fast And Loose, maybe not up to winning at this level could be possible lays if of value to do so, (value? Is an arguable stat because I know my sprinters inside out I can have a fairly accurate idea of what price the horse should be depending on its chances of winning so that is why I usually post my lays the morning of the races when the betting has settled down). Quest For Fun could do best of those racing to the fore in the early stages but my money will be riding on AASSER 9/1 who has won before after a break from racing so the 3 months its had off could see it come back and raring to go and the jockey does quite well when riding for the stable. 

Aasser 9/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Running Wild +1pt

Total 0pts

NEWCASTLE 4.13 

A poor looking class 6 sprint with just one known front running type amongst the 14 runners, I've marked down 3 possible lays that I'm hoping will be of value to lay, Willing To Please and Variety Island, who both might need further, and Cheese The One who has run in slow run affairs lately and might be flattered by finishing in the frame, the 3yo’s Randem Rocks and My Boy Jack could go well and might be worth each way wagers if of value to do so, this isn't a race to be betting very heavily in but I'm hoping a small each way wager on ASTAPOR 20/1(EW) might pay dividends as its the one i think might set the pace and then could be hard to catch. 

Astapor 40/1 9th -2pts 

Lay bets Variety Island +1pt, Cheese The One +1pt 

Total 0pts

NEWCASTLE 4.45 

The first division of a class 6 dash and surprisingly there is only a couple of known front running types in the race, I'm not sure if there will be anything of value to lay in this race but as usual the betting will be the deciding factor, High Security and or Mrs Bagerman could set the pace to the race and the latter could do best of the pair so might be worth an each way interest, Nellie French has pieces of form from the past that would give it a chance of making the frame but has been in poor form lately, Sugar Baby has been running in better company than today's but time wise it would need to improve to win this race so I'm not sure what to expect from it, Blackcurrant is another that could go well but seems to find it hard to win as many races as it should, I will be hoping that an each way bet on YAAHOBBY 12/1 (EW) will pay dividends and this one is usually held up for a late run and it is the type of horse that can bounce back to form without prior winning so lets hope its today. 

Yaahobby 18/1 3rd +2.6pts

Total +2.6pts

KEMPTON 5.30 

A field of 8 for this class 5 race with just one natural front running type amongst them, I'm always wary when laying 3yo’s because they are still capable of some improvement but I think both Lur Cinn Tra and Cabeza De Llave would be better prospects over a longer distance so I will have a small lay bet on them if of value to do so, Charming Kid can produce decent speed figures when things go right for it but hasn't been in good form lately, the top weighted Astral Beat is a 3yo who comes out 3rd best on my figures so might be worth an each way bet if a value price, I will be siding with HOWZAK 11/4 who won last time out and has been found an ideal opportunity to follow up here where i can see it leading all the way so the stall 2 draw is nearly perfect. 

Howzak 11/4 1st +2.75pts 

Lay bet Cabeza De Llave +1pt 

Total +3.75pts

KEMPTON 8.30 

Of the 12 runners I can see 3 that like to lead so a true run race looks likely, Porfin is my 4th top rated here but can find the distance too far with a fast pace so maybe one to lay in this race, Vape is my 3rd top rated and usually stays on at the finish but maybe too late for the win as long as others run to their best, Tell’em Nowt comes out 2nd best and usually races in midfield before staying on nearing the finish, my money will be riding on GOLD MEDAL 7/2 who is one of the front runners in the race isn't drawn well in stall 11 but with only 2 other likely pacesetters it could get out and follow the stall 8 horse across to the rails and then at least contest the lead and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch and the jockey has a decent record when riding for the stable.

Gold Medal 7/1 3rd 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day +5.35pts

Lay bets must be 9/1 and less sp (horses underlined)

7:00 Southwell Racing Tips (15th March)

SOUTHWELL 7.00 

A typical class 6 sprint over 5 furlongs with just 2 known front running types amongst the 12 runners, firstly I will look to lay Lesha 4/1 who seems a better prospect when racing on the Polytrack surface anything else that I could lay I expect will be double figure prices and represent no value to lay, as for the winner Equally Fast hasn't shown much time wise since 2020 but being a possible pacesetter it could do enough to make the frame although I doubt it can win this race so maybe worth looking to lay if a single figure price nearing the off, Raabeh would have a good chance if able to reproduce its best time from 2020 but last years best figure was way below that level and its time when winning over this c/d 2 runs ago was in a relatively slow run race and it might not pick up the leaders in this race, Scale Force comes from the Gay Kellaway stable and is my top rated using its time recorded at Wolverhampton this year and usually stays on strongly over this distance but it has a stablemate running, MOVEONUP who is the other front running type in the race and comes out top rated using my recent c/d speed figures which it recorded when winning from the front 2 runs ago and missed the kick last time out so that can be forgiven and if leading here it could prove hard to catch but I might have a smaller covering bet on its stablemate just in case that's the one that's trying out or the two of them. 

Moveonup 14/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bets Lesha +1pt

Total 0pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.45 

A 6 runner race, Badri might need this run for fitness after being off for over 530 days, Ben Macdul might find the distance too far with a fast early pace which looks likely here, Jungle Speed one of the 2 known front running types in this race might prefer the Polytrack surface and might be outclassed at this class 4 level and the same applies to Ginato who has been running well but is put up in class here without winning, I think that Ghathanfar 9/2 could be the one to do for the forecast as its usually stays on strongly at the finish but I doubt it will catch up with the one that I think will set the pace to this race and I can see SPARTAN FIGHTER 2/1 completing its hat trick. 

Spartan Fighter 11/4 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 8.30 

Quite a competitive class 5 race with 12 runners and 2 known front running types, I always mention front running types because without them you are not guaranteed a strong early gallop and then it becomes a 2 furlong dash and anything can happen, Igotatext 6/1 is one of the possible pacesetters but I don't think this surface sees it at its best and so much so I will look to lay it, I will also look to lay Sarah's Verse 9/1 and Capla Spirit 6/1 as they both look better over shorter distances, then the other way round I could look to lay Burj Malinka as it might prefer a longer distance to show its best that's if they are single figure prices, Steelriver 12/1 is always capable of running well but has disappointed on its last 3 runs but is top rated on just recent c/d times but that is from the very limited amount of data I had to work with, Tributo 12/1 could be the one to set the pace to the race and then it could do enough to make the frame, Vivency 20/1 and Water Of Leith 5/1 both have ratings that could see them be there at the business end of this race but my money will be riding on BURROW'S SEESIDE 5/1 who has made the frame in all four of its races this year and has a chance here to go even better and get back to winning ways.

Burrow's Seeside 5/1 1st +5pts

Lay bets Igotatext +1pt, Capla Spirit +1pt, Burj Malinka +1pt

Total 8pts 

Total on the day +7pts

2:45 Lingfield Racing Tips (4th March)

LINGFIELD 2.45 

There's 3 known front runners in this race, Swiss Pride 6/1 is one of them and is capable of recording a high speed figure but all in lower class races so maybe not up to winning this race, I'm not sure what to expect from Twilight Heir 12/1 and I'm doubtful that Impeach 5/1 can lead all the way for the win while Night On Earth 10/1 may struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace so I will be laying it if of value, as for the winner I will probably have a small covering bet on Jacks Point 9/2 who ran well last time when finishing 2nd and could possibly go one better here but my main bet will be riding on COUNT OTTO 13/2 who at first glance looks out of form but did record a good time the time before last over this course and distance and the jockey has a decent strike-rate for the trainer. 

Count Otto 14/1 7th -1pt

Lay bet Night On Earth +1pt 

Total 0pts

NEWCASTLE 6.15 

I hope all 8 runners take part and the pace will most likely be set by Khabib 11/2 who won last time out and holds Tathmeen 9/1 on that run but both of them might be outclassed at this level and time wise the winner would need to improve a few spots and might be worth laying if a shortish price but it is a 4yo who could be improving my lay stake will be kept low, Gowanlad 3/1 might be better racing over further and the jockey is 1-19 for the stable it might be another one to lay, as for the winner I'm hoping that GLORIOUS RIO 14/1 (EW) who is housed in stall 8 next to the probable pacesetter so could get a good tow into the race before staying on the stronger at the finish and the jockeys 29% win ratio on the stables older horses is hopefully a good pointer and at the odds it has to be an each way wager.

Glorious Rio 22/1 7th -2pts 

Total -2pts  

NEWCASTLE 7.15 

Not a race to get too excited about but the early pace could be set by Ustath but it hasn't been in good form lately, it would be a surprise if those in the bottom four in the handicap were to win this race, Million Reasons 5/2 has been in cracking form but it was either slow going or a slow run race when it won over c/d last time out and it should go well again here but I expect it will be fairly short in the market, I will take a bit of a punt in this race on DUE A WIN 13/2 who has been placed in 4 of its 8 AW races but is still a maiden after 11 races in total and can find this distance a bit too far if there's a fast early pace which might not happen here so it could have a chance to get off the market in this race. 

Due A Win 13/2 Unp -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 7.45 

Once again I hope all 8 runners take part in case I find an each way bet, I'm not sure this is the best surface for the front running Nigel Nott 8/1 and would lay it if of value to do so, Ghatnanfar 15/2 might need this run for fitness so another one to lay, I actually think the early pace will be set by SPARTAN FIGHTER 3/1 who I tipped up last time out when it won priced at a ten to one, the apprentice jockey does well riding for the stable and it could lead all the way again here but I cannot let SHALLOW HAL 11/2 run without having a bet on this one as well it usually tracks the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish and the jockey has a 29% win ratio on the stables older horses and could be the one to prosper if the leader/s fade in the closing stages.

Spartan Fighter 5/1 1st +5pts 

Shallow Hal 11/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Nigel Nott +1pt, Ghatnanfar +1pt 

Total +6pts

Total on the day  +3pts

7:00 Newcastle Racing Tips (25th October)

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

GINGER JAM may need a longer distance to show its best and its only run over this course and distance resulted in a slow time so not for me in this race. 

BUNIANN 5/2 usually likes to track the leaders, can be relied to reproduce its best but would need to improve time wise to win this race, may have been flattered by its victory last time out and therefore the price doesn't represent poor value and I would take the risk and lay it at that price.

VICTORY ANGEL hasn't any distance form on the All-Weather tracks over this distance but it does have a time from Ripon on turf which would make it 4th top spot on overall figures. 

JAMES WATT can be relied upon to reproduce its best speed figures when it encounters its ideal conditions but even then those times are relatively slow so not for me in this race. 

GLORIOUS RIO comes out 2nd top rated on just this years course and distance times but that figure is only good enough for 5th top spot on my overall figures but has good jockey stats so may make the frame. 

SOAPY'S SISTER has only slow times over this course and distance but its best time from on the truf at Hamilton would make it my joint 2nd top rated on overall figures. 

QUEEN OF KALAHARI 4/1 this might not be the right surface for it and/or too short a distance and its best speed figure doesn't see it make my top 4 so not for me in this race and at the price I will be laying it because its poor value in my opinion. 

SOUND OF IONA has only had 3 runs on the artificial surfaces and made the frame in just one of them, its best time on turf would make it my top rated but its poor AW form puts me off. 

BALLYARE this 3yo comes out top rated on just 2021 course and distance ratings and its best time on turf would make it my joint 2nd top rated and only 2lbs from top spot but the apprentice jockeys 3lb claim makes it my top rated on both sets of figures. 

SPANISH ANGEL this one comes in outside my top four ratings, it is usually held up for a late run and could run into a place if others falter but I doubt it can win this race. 

TAR HEEL this 3yo has shown very little in its runs to date and I cannot see any reason why it should change here and I expect it to be one of the outsiders. 

SUMMARY: I have said a few of these are not for me in this race and to be honest none of them are jumping out of the page to me, firstly and most significantly is the lack of known front running types in the race which is unusual in a 5 furlong dash, obviously something will set the pace but the question is will it be a true fast pace, I somehow doubt it and I should probably leave this race well alone but then again I might dutch the 3 horses that I think could win this race despite the lack of early pace, GLORIOUS RIO 7/1 has good jockey stats making me think connections are expecting a big run here and does usually like to track the pacemakers so could cover any moves by its opponents, SOAPY'S SISTER 12/1 has a reasonably good jockey stat so could go well but being a hold up type it will need some luck in running and hope the leaders haven't kept plenty in reserve to repel any late challengers but maybe worth an each way interest at a double figure price, BALLYARE 6/1 with its apprentice jockeys 3lb claim comes out top rated on both sets of figures and probably should be my only selection in this race but the lack of pace concerns me greatly and this one being a hold up type could leave itself with too much to do if the leaders don't tire nearing the finish, I will go with backing all three of them but probably tilted in favour of my top rated horse.

Ballyare 15/2 1st +7.5pts + CFS £184.03 EX £167.80

Soapy's Sister 25/1 2nd -1pt 

Glorious Rio 7/ 19th -1pt 

Lay bets Buniann +1pt

Total on the day  +6.5pts 

4:30 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (10th February)

NEWCASTLE 4.30 

Even for a class 6 handicap this is a dire race and too honest I've got the same negative against every horse barring the one, the negative is that 9 of the runners have been in poor form lately, some have other negatives so the selection has to be NELLIE FRENCH 5/6 who won last time out over this distance at Wolverhampton, the same surface, but its best time came here over this c/d in 2020 and a repeat of that should be good so looks to have been found an ideal opportunity to follow up here but I expect it will be a fairly hot favourite, I cannot fathom why (Suwaan 6/1) is such a short price, yes it is a c/d winner but it hasn't shown anything of merit time wise since 2018 and i will happily lay the win on this horse. 

Abandoned

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.45 

A typical race where there is only 8 runners but I have struggled to narrow it down to anything lower than 3 of the runners so i will going with a dutch on A GO GO 9/2 who from stall 2 should be able to get away quickly and gain control of the rails and then could prove hard to catch but its best time is only good enough for 2nd top spot on recent c/d times but that is only 2lbs below QAARAAT 10/3 who just lately it has been running quite well and has won twice in its last four starts, BUY ME BACK 3/1 has only a slow c/d time to its name from its only run over this c/d but has a time from Lingfield that would make it my top rated so if taking to this surface could have every chance of winning but it has a time on the straight course at Newcastle which is good enough for 3rd overall, I will look to lay (Lady Quickstep 6/1) who may struggle to stay the distance in a fast run affair which looks more than likely here. 

Buy Me Back 10/3 1st (+3.33pts) (Betfair sp 4.57)

Qaaraat 7/2 3rd (-1pt)

A Go Go 4th 7/2 (-1pt) 

Lay bet: Lady Quickstep +1pt

Total: +2.33pts 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.45 Div I 

This 1st division of a class 6 sprint looks quite good for the class, (Eldelbar 5/2) will I expect be quite fancied in the betting after winning its last 2 races but its speed figures over this c/d isn't quite good enough for the win if others repeat their best but could still go well so I would go with a small lay, I would also usually look to lay Big Time Maybe as it can struggle to stay the trip but there isn't any known front runners in this race so that might not apply in this race and time wise it could go well with a slower early pace,, there's a few that could go well, Closely is my 4th top rated and 3rd top on recent c/d times, Tan who has the plum draw could be tempted to make the running and it does come out 3rd best on my figures and that time was recorded over this c/d this year, my money will be riding on *GLOBAL HUMOR 9/1 who has the best speed figure which was recorded in 2020 and the horse has one win and two places from its 3 previous c/d runs and should be staying on at the business end of the race. 

*NR

Lay bet: Eldelbar +1pt

Total: +1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.15 Div II 

This 2nd division is very poor where I can only find 5 horses with recorded times and they are not that good, among the rest there's a lot of lightly raced sorts so this race is best well left alone.

Total on the day: +3.33pts

1:10 Southwell Racing Tips (28th January)

When I write these blogs I hope you don't just look at the selections in capital letters or the lays in brackets and underlined because you could be missing things that you could use to your advantage. I write these blogs two days before the race and I post the night before and things can change with non-runners and how the betting changes things so my ramblings might help your decision making. 

SOUTHWELL 1.10 

Just 8 runners with 3 known front running types who are drawn in the 3 inside stalls and its a race where i will have to back a front runner and one coming from off the pace just in case they go off too fast and tire nearing the finish,I think Alexej will be at the fore of the betting and I think mainly because its from the powerful stable of J.Gosden and the jockey R.Havlin but its runs from 2020 were all over further that the 6 furlongs here and stayed on at the finish so I'm surprised its dropped down in trip, obviously it could be a very superior horse compared to the rest and win despite it not being ideal conditions but I will lay it if a short price, I am hoping that ZYLAN 10/3 can get to the front and if doing so it could prove hard to catch being my 2nd top rated but I do have SHALLOW HAL 10/1 rated just 3lbs higher so may need a trouble free run to pick up the pacesetters hence the 2 bets, both have decent trainer stats and have good jockeys stats in fact their stats are identical and it looks as though both stables are expecting to win. 

Shallow Hal 10/1 1st (+10pts) (Betfair SP 6.86) 

Zylan 15/2 3rd (-1pt)

Total: +9pts

SOUTHWELL 3.55 

Down to 6 runners for this race but with 2 known front runners it should be a true run affair but both of the pacesetters would need to improve time wise to win this race, Ornate one of them has a good 2 wins and 3 placed efforts from just 5 c/d runs and the other King Of Stars has won twice from just 4 previous c/d runs, Giogiobbo may stay on at the finish but maybe too late to win the race, Diamond Dougal hasn't any course form but could take to this surface and be a hidden danger, Tawny Port is my 2nd top rated using a 2019 time but it hasn't any recent c/d form to work with, my money will be riding on THEGREATESTSHOWMAN 4/1 who is well handicapped and will be winning again soon and has every chance to do so here. 

Thegreatestshowman 4/1 2nd (-1pt) 

Total: -1pt

SOUTHWELL 4.25 

Up to 9 for this race but only one front running type in the shape of Gossip who is dangerous if allowed to set its own slightly slower pace and has won 2 of its 4 previous c/d races but there is a few who like to track or press the leader so maybe wont be able to pinch the race from the front, Marwari has a good time from Newastle but I'm not sure this surface will suit it, Pearl Of Qatar has good trainer/jockey stats and will be staying on at the finish but could struggle if its a slow run affair and if it wasn't for the good trainer/jockey stats i would lay it and if its a short price i might still lay it, the jockey has a 25% win ratio for the stable but it still means hes beaten in 3 out of every 4 races, i will be siding with ARZAAK 7/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and has won 3, placed 5 from 13 c/d runs so likes the course. 

Arzaak 12/1 8th (-1pt) 

Total: -1pt

NEWCASTLE 7.30 

I was going to leave this class 6 stakes race well alone and I will only bet in the race if my selection is a double figure price, that horse is STAR CRACKER 10/1 who can spring back to form without warning and might be worth having a small risky each way bet if its of value

Star Cracker 11/1 3rd +1.75pts

Total on the day: +8.75pts

4:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (1st December)

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.00 Div I

There is quite a few runners in this race that could battle to fill the places and could be worth backing each way if they are big enough in price but there is nothing of note in my opinion apart from TURANGA LEELA 7/2 who won last time out over this c/d and has been found an ideal opportunity to follow up here and a repeat of that time would be good enough and I think it could lead all the way here. 

Turanga Leela 7/2 1st (Betfair SP 3.99)

Total: +3.5pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.30 Div II

This is a poor race and was one I was going to leave well alone until a little nugget appeared, De Little Engine who is one of two known front runners in the race could go well as could Klopp, Buy Me Back, Kaths Lustre and Elzaam's Dream, I will be taking a punt on the other possible front runner KUPA RIVER 9/1 (EW) who hasn't shown much lately but if getting to the front and bouncing back to form it could hold on for the win and hopefully for a bit of insurance it will be an each way price. 

Kupa River 9/1 4th (-2pts)

Total: -2pts 

NEWCASTLE 5.15 

Of the 9 runners there's no known front running type amongst them, I think Fancy Footings may prefer further so this race might not be run to suit it, Tomily, Medicine Jack and I Am The Secret all have times closely matched but I have 2 horses with a few spots in hand and there's only 2lb’s between them, TATHMEEN 11/2 is my 2nd top rated and is usually held up while LUCKY LODGE 6/1 usually likes to track the pacemakers and has a 5lb claiming apprentice taking the ride, the 2 horses have the same trainer and owner and either could win and I will be backing them both. 

Lucky Lodge 17/2 2nd (-1pt)

Tathmeen 11/2 6th (-1pt)

Total: -2pts 

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.30 

A competitive class 5 race where i will to back more than one horse, I could lay Ventura Flame if a single figure price and the same applies to Primos Comet, Zulu Zander would have a chance but the jockeys 1-34 record for the stable is off-putting, Broughton's Flame is another that could go well in this race but i will be splitting my money between SECRETFACT 9/2 who could set the pace to the race and could prove hard to catch for most of the field but BALLYARE 11/2 has a speed figure from Newcastle over this distance which would see it winning the race a little cosily.

Secretfact 9/2 3rd (-1pt)

Ballyare 11/2 7th (-1pt)

Total: -2pts

Total on the day:  -2.5pts