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Tuesday, 19 October 2021

8:00 Kempton Racing Tips (20th October)

KEMPTON 8.00 

I can see 3 horses that have lead before so it should be a true run affair, I will be laying Blissful Song 13/2 if its a single figure price which it is forecast to be on the early tissue prices, Temple Bruer 13/2 and Touchwood 5/1 both have times from 2020 that would give them a chance of making the frame as they are my 2nd and 3rd top rated horses on overall times and both of their best times were recorded on this surface but at Lingfield socould make the frame but ain't what I call an each way price, I will be backing WORLD OF WINDHOVER 14/1 (EW) who is a potential pacesetter and it is my top rated on just 2021 times plus it has good jockey stats and it could lead all the way but I will also be backing ROCK BOY GREY 10/1 (EW) has a time from here last year which would put it in top spot by just 2lbs but it hasn't run over this course and distance so far this year, if it can reproduce its best overall time which it recorded at Chelmsford last time out it would win this race rather cosily so has to carry some of my money and at the prices I will be backing them both each way. 

World Of Windhover 14/1 6th -2pts 
Rock Boy Grey 10/1 8th -2pts 

Lay bets: Blissful Song +1pt (other two double figure odds, so no bet)

Total -3pts 

KEMPTON 8.30 

There is not a lot to work with in this race and I very nearly left it alone and unless I get an each way price for the one I want to back I will leave the race alone, its been quite awhile since Major Valentine has shown anything worthwhile time wise and it has a chance to lead again in this race but its been fading very badly lately so I expect the same today but maybe that will help anyone who likes to back to lay when the price shortens in running, Enchanted Night is my 3rd top rated despite it looking as though it would do better when racing over a shorter distance, Iesha comes out in 2nd top spot and like all of my top 3 rated horses it recorded its time on this surface at Chelmsford but BERNARD SPEIRPOINT 5/1 finished 2nd last time out where it recorded its best ever speed figure and a repeat of that time at this course would see it winning a shade cosily as I've got it rated 7lbs higher than the 2nd top rated horse BUT and yes it is a big but, the trainer is 0-6 in the last 2 weeks and its been 96 runners over the last 199 days since this stable last had a winner, the horse itself has been placed 3 times from 12 AW runs so it might be best going onto an exchange and backing it place only, the price is half of what was forecast on the tissue prices so it sends me back to thinking the best thing to do is leave the race alone.

Bernard Speirpoint 11/2 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -4pts

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