12:40 Kempton Racing Tips (17th January)

KEMPTON 12.40 

Class 6 dash with 9 runners and 3 known front running types where I'm not sure if I could lay anything, Ornate is my top rated but has been woefully out of form in recent runs its also capable of springing back to form without warning but is so unreliable I couldn't back or lay this one, the other 2 possible pacesetters are Ooh Is It and is another I couldn't back or lay while Autumn Flight recorded a fast time when getting towed along in a race this year at Lingfield but has never run here before but if taking to the course could go well, being my 3rd top rated horse but did lead last time before fading nearing the finish but it think they could all be setting the race up for MICK'S SPIRIT 5/2 who usually likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger nearing the finish and from stall 2 should be able to attain a good position on the rails just behind the leaders ready to pounce, the trainer has a 20% strike rate here with their older horses and the apprentice jockey has 16% win ratio on the stables older horses. 

Mick's Spirit 5/2 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 5.00 

A class 5 dash with 8 runners and again there's 3 known front running types, Idoapologise hasn't won over this distance before as it seems too short for it and could be worth laying if of value to do so, Gannon Glory is held by the top weight on recent form and Murbih who is my 2nd top rated on just course and distance times both like to front run so it should be a true run affair. If KIM WEXLER 11/4 gets to the front it could prove hard to catch and is my top rated on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere and is in 3rd top spot on course and distance ratings but there is very little between my top 3 at this course but i cannot leave out my actual top rated horse here and that's SO GRATEFUL 5/1 who usually likes to track the leaders, so I will be covering the angles and backing both of them. 

Kim Wexler 9/2 1st 4.5pts

So Grateful 5/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bet Idoapolobte +1

Total +4.5pts

SOUTHWELL 5.30 

A field of 11 for this class 6 dash and for the 3rd sprint in a row I can see 3 known front running types in the race and I think this race should be won from the front, if The Tron is of value I would look to lay it as its seems to prefer a longer distance, Munificent won last time out about a month ago at Wolverhampton and is my joint top rated using that rating, it has never run here before but if taking to the track it could prove dangerous but would need a trouble free run to catch Mehmo who is my other joint top rated on Tapeta times from elsewhere and its one of the likely leaders but its only previous run here resulted in a slow time and if that's the best it can achieve here then it could struggle, BERNARD SPEIRPOINT 4/1 is another possible front runner and is my top rated on just course and distance ratings and by a good few spots. 

Bernard Speirpoint 9/2 9th -1pt

Lay bets The Tron +1pt 

0pts

SOUTHWELL 8.30 

A class 6 sprint with 13 runners no known front running types which always causes problems when trying to analyse a race and automatically means any bets will be for small stakes, the 10yo Muatadel seems to be slowing with age and the other old timer Dapper Man may prefer a shorter distance, Fylingdale 7/2, Tathmeen 9/1, Bluebird 4/1 and Camachess 14/1 are at the top of my ratings with the first two’s ratings coming on Tapeta but from elsewhere while the other 2 are top rated on just course and distance runs and only Lyingdale has a rating from both sources but its course and distance rating is the lower rating, maybe I could dutch all 4 of them or maybe I should leave the race alone, the deciding factor will be the betting and I might then be able to find a final conclusion to the race.

Total on the day +3.5pts

5:00 Chelmsford Racing Tips (3rd November)

CHELMSFORD 5.00 Div I

This 1st division isn't too bad a race for a class 6 affair but the 2nd leg is so poor its impossible to analyse with any degree of accuracy and I will be leaving that race alone.

I'm not really sure what will lead in this race but Viewfromthestars 8/1 has done so when nothing else wants to lead and it might have to do that here but if something else sets a decent gallop then it might get outpaced early and then have too much ground to make up to win this race but if allowed an easy lead then it could possibly lead all the way as further might suit this 3yo better but its not worth the risk to lay it at the price, I've written quite a bit about this horse because the race could pivot around what this one does from the start. There are a few who have virtually no chance of winning this race but I expect them to be outsiders in the betting. Starjik even money won last time out but even for this level it was a relatively slow run race so it might have been flattered by the result and might be worth laying at least for the win part especially at the price. Nigg Bay is another that might be of value to lay as all runs over today's distance have resulted in ratings not good enough to register on my speed figures. Admirable Lad 9/2 will be to the fore in the betting and is my 3rd top rated and has won its last 3 races so I expect it to run well but I do wonder if the official handicapper has caught up with it now. Company Minx 9/1 is my 2nd top rated and finished 3rd last time out but the jockey's record of 0-15 for the stable puts me off backing it. I will take a punt with a small, hopefully each way, punt on BERNARD SPEIRPOINT 16/1 (EW) who is usually held up for a late run so would ideally like a decent early gallop so the leaders haven't got things in reserve to repel the late challengers, its poor trainer stats are a concern so a small each way punt and keep my fingers crossed it can reproduce its best rating from last year. 

Bernard Speirpoint 16/1 2nd +2.1pts

Total +2.1pts

CHELMSFORD 6.00 

I can see 6 possible pacesetters in this class 5 dash, I am not sure if I can find anything of value, under 10/1, to lay in this race but my best hope might be Yimou but only time and the betting will tell. There is not a lot between my top 5 rated horses, Ornate and Micks Spirit are my joint 4th top rated horses, the former is a possible pacesetter from stall 4 while the latter likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish. Howzak another possible pacesetter in stall 2 is my 3rd top rated and if getting to the front could be dangerous. Thank The Lord is my 2nd top rated and another possible front runner coming out of stall 3, the problem could be that there is another known front running type, the 3yo Thank The Lord, housed in stall 1 so there could be skirmishing if they all battle to lead and for control on the rails but another 3yo, ANGLE LAND 5/1 who finished 2nd last time out in a time that would see it winning this race but only just, it was ridden last time out for the 1st time by Hayley Turner and the stable are using her again which makes me think they are expecting, or hoping, to go one better in this race but she is 0-23 for the stable which doesn't inspire confidence but I'm hoping an each way bet might show a profit but its another race where my stakes will be kept low. 

Angle Land 5/1 2nd -1pt

Lay bet Yimou +1pt 

Total 0pts

Total on the day +2.1pts

6:00 Newcastle Racing Tips (10th February)

NEWCASTLE 6.00 

A field of ten take part here with three of them being known as front running types so it should be a true run race, Nellie French 14/1 and Qaaraat 8/1 have good speed figures if I use their best ratings from 2020 but both have been well below that level since that year and I think the betting will reflect that, Eeh Bah Gum 9/2 hasn't any recent course and distance form to its name but I would have to go back to 2019 to find this ones best rating so may be worth taking on with a lay bet, Joshua R has only slow times from its two course and distance runs but the surface has been running slow of late so cannot be discarded, I will be backing BERNARD SPEIRPOINT 4/1 who is a possible pacesetter and is top rated using recent Southwell ratings and this will be its debut on this course and maybe the straight course will suit it better, my other bet will be on STROXX 7/1 who is still a maiden after 15 races but has a good rating over this course and distance from last year and could be the one to prosper if the leaders fade nearing the finish, I was hoping for an each way price with this horse and it might drift enough to be worth doing each way. 

Bernard Speirpoint 4/1 4th -1pt 

Stroxx 13/2 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Eeh Bah Gum +1pt 

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 6.30 

Only 6 runners for this class 3 race which is disappointing as is the fact that there's no known front runners in the race and to be honest I think more than half the field are more than capable of winning this race, Asadjumeirah has only run over this c/d when the going has been slow so I'm not really sure what it can achieve if the going is standard but I couldn't say it cant win this race, I did have to go back to 2020 to find Rathbone’s best rating but I expect it will be an outsider in this race but would be worth laying if its a single figure price,if sticking to the proven then I think the winner will come from any of Aberama Gold, top on Southwell ratings, Astro Jakk, top using a 2020 speed figure and Ballyare who is top rated on c/d rating from 2021/22, so maybe this race is best left alone. 

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

There is just one known front runner in this race but it is my top rated so I will be hoping that STORM OVER 11/1 (EW) can lead from start to finish and get back to winning ways as its my top rated using a c/d speed figure recorded in 2021, admittedly it hasn't been in the best of form lately but it is the best horse in this race taking on inferior beasts, it does well at this course and maybe the switch back to this course, its last run here was February last year, will rejuvenate it and this is its best chance to lead for some time now but the trainer hasn't had a winner from 24 runners in the last 91 days which tempers my stakes while I hope all 8 runners take part so I can back it each way, Tarnholm 16/1 may be better when racing over a longer distance so maybe worth laying, but not at the price, as will Rabeh 15/2 but this one probably needs to drop down in distance, on my ratings Deevious Beau 4/1, Oriental Lilly 10/3 and Due A Win 11/2 will be battling for the minor places.

Storm Over 14/1 6th -2pts 

Total -2pt 

Total on the day -3pts

Lay bets must be single-figure odds. 

6:00 Chelsmford Racing Tips (9th December)

CHELMSFORD 6.00 Div I

A relatively poor class 6 handicap, which will not take much winning, split into 2 divisions there's quite a few in this field of 14 that are out of form or have negatives against their names under today's conditions,IE: course, distance, surface, the top weight Aces 7/2 who is my 3rd top rated using a time from Lingfield might be one of those to lay if the tissue prices are to be believed due to the fact it is a better horse over a shorter distance and has only recorded 3 slow times on its 3 previous c/d runs, another to consider laying is Royal Heart 8/1 if its a single figure price, Brazen Arrow 16/1 is my 4th top rated on overall speed figures but is 2nd best on just 2021 c/d speed figures so could go well and might be worth an each way punt, Maid Millie 4/1 is my top rated using a time from 2020 but its best from this year has been well below that level and the jockeys 0-3 record for the stable makes me think they might have a future race in mind but I might have a small covering bet on it but my main bet will be VINCENZO COCCOTTI 15/2 who is my top rated for just this years c/d speed figures and working with the apprentice jockeys claim it is also top rated overall. 

Vincenzo Coccotti 12/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Royal Heart +1pt, Aces (not given as returned double figure odds) 

Total 0pts 

CHELMSFORD 6.30 Div II 

This division is a bit complex to analyze, again there a few with negatives against their name and haven't been in form lately of those I would look to lay Hope Springs 8/1 if its a single figure price as the trip might be too far for it if the early pace is decent, Kraka 25/1 would be my top rated if I used a 2019 speed figure buts its best for the last 2 years, 2020/2021, is way below that standard and has been in very poor form lately and I am going to ignore that speed figure as it now seems irrelevant and the betting backs that up, I've got joint 5th top rated horses in Sword Exceed and Perfect Symphony and they are just 1lb below my joint 3rd top rated horses, Bungledupinblue 10/1 and The Tron 7/1, I've also got joint top rated horses on this years speed figures and ignoring a faster time I mentioned earlier they are also joint top rated on my overall speed figures so I will be backing both MONSIEUR FANTASIE 16/1 (EW) and BERNARD SPEIRPOINT 14/1 (EW), the former usually races in midfield but both the trainer and jockeys stats are 0-31 which doesn't bode well while the latter has a 11% strike rate for the trainer but a poor 4% win ratio by the jockey, so I am hoping they will be each way prices and I will then go with a couple of small each way punts.

Monsieur Fantasie 16/1 2nd +3pts 

Bernard Speirpoint 14/1 3rd +2.5pts

Total +5.5pts

Total +5.5pts

8:00 Kempton Racing Tips (20th October)

KEMPTON 8.00 

I can see 3 horses that have lead before so it should be a true run affair, I will be laying Blissful Song 13/2 if its a single figure price which it is forecast to be on the early tissue prices, Temple Bruer 13/2 and Touchwood 5/1 both have times from 2020 that would give them a chance of making the frame as they are my 2nd and 3rd top rated horses on overall times and both of their best times were recorded on this surface but at Lingfield socould make the frame but ain't what I call an each way price, I will be backing WORLD OF WINDHOVER 14/1 (EW) who is a potential pacesetter and it is my top rated on just 2021 times plus it has good jockey stats and it could lead all the way but I will also be backing ROCK BOY GREY 10/1 (EW) has a time from here last year which would put it in top spot by just 2lbs but it hasn't run over this course and distance so far this year, if it can reproduce its best overall time which it recorded at Chelmsford last time out it would win this race rather cosily so has to carry some of my money and at the prices I will be backing them both each way. 

World Of Windhover 14/1 6th -2pts 

Rock Boy Grey 10/1 8th -2pts 

Lay bets: Blissful Song +1pt (other two double figure odds, so no bet)

Total -3pts 

KEMPTON 8.30 

There is not a lot to work with in this race and I very nearly left it alone and unless I get an each way price for the one I want to back I will leave the race alone, its been quite awhile since Major Valentine has shown anything worthwhile time wise and it has a chance to lead again in this race but its been fading very badly lately so I expect the same today but maybe that will help anyone who likes to back to lay when the price shortens in running, Enchanted Night is my 3rd top rated despite it looking as though it would do better when racing over a shorter distance, Iesha comes out in 2nd top spot and like all of my top 3 rated horses it recorded its time on this surface at Chelmsford but BERNARD SPEIRPOINT 5/1 finished 2nd last time out where it recorded its best ever speed figure and a repeat of that time at this course would see it winning a shade cosily as I've got it rated 7lbs higher than the 2nd top rated horse BUT and yes it is a big but, the trainer is 0-6 in the last 2 weeks and its been 96 runners over the last 199 days since this stable last had a winner, the horse itself has been placed 3 times from 12 AW runs so it might be best going onto an exchange and backing it place only, the price is half of what was forecast on the tissue prices so it sends me back to thinking the best thing to do is leave the race alone.

Bernard Speirpoint 11/2 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -4pts